Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[pughman] 02/2/2023 09:00

Muted market response. Healthy year end cash figure for 22 of $122. The figure of interest for me is cash at the end of H1 23. There is no CWLH contribution for the next 6 months, Jan 23 gas acquisition to be paid for, delayed Capex for Akatara from 22 and a lower oil price of circa 20% to date for H1 23 against H1 22. Montara needs to up and running by then.

[11_percent] 02/2/2023 08:54

Looking good for 2023.......bought a few more.

[taurusthebear] 02/2/2023 08:52

Hindsight is a marvellous thing, and client confidentiality comes with being publicly listed.

[nigelpm] 02/2/2023 08:46

In which case I'd agree to some extent.

[winnet] 02/2/2023 08:39

Nige

The august 12 one "It is currently anticipated that these inspection and repair activities will result in production being shut-in during the remainder of August and potentially through September 2022"

It should have read: "It is currently anticipated that these inspection and repair activities will result in production being shut-in during the remainder of August, although should the condition be worse than expected, it could take bleeding months"... or something along those lines.

TBH i was also unhappy with how Blackey handled Maari. Should have pulled the plug months before he did and also given better comms on it. He would have had an ongoing line to them

Anyway, all that is in the past now.

[nigelpm] 02/2/2023 08:32

Out of interest - which RNS are you referring to winnet. I went back through them yesterday and reviewing the timeline against facts known at the time - perhaps the August RNS was a touch too optimistic but otherwise I didn't have much to complain about as a shareholder.

[winnet] 02/2/2023 08:30

The issue, if management did not know the extent of the problem, they should have guided as such. Its the lack of judgment in delivering guidance that has effected their credibility, at least with me.

[mount teide] 02/2/2023 08:26

Management would not have known the extent of the repair and maintenance issues until all the outstanding tank inspections postponed by the Covid pandemic had been completed.

Added 30,000 this morning at 83p - a price that is likely to be well in the rear view mirror come the spring.

[nigelpm] 02/2/2023 08:18

Montara ended up being more complicated and difficult to repair than management first thought - whilst that's unfortunate - it happens. Operational kit that is mechanical and highly engineered can be challenging. It's somewhat harsh to expect management to get everything right all the time. Perhaps this sector isn't something you should be invested in if you don't like the risk?

[ashkv] 02/2/2023 08:11

Winnet / Mount Teide appreciate your sage words. MT have started studying the shipping industry post your insightful analysis on other chats...

Agree that expensive is relative and I have been dabbling in JSE since its IPO.

However, IMHO JSE needs to start exceeding expectations to merit that premium? Would you not concur that if JSE is trading at a premium it should perform so?

However, JSE Management in my view (Don't have to agree with me and get virulent) and have impaired their credibility given not so straightforward handling of Montara. Guide conservative and provide best case results are the sort of managements that an investor would hope for... not vice versa... Montara was guided post several delays for End Dec 2022 but here we are....

Mount Teide
2 Feb '23 - 07:58 - 12268 of 12268
0 0 0
ash - the best companies can often be relatively expensive - Apple has been very expensive for decades but it has not stopped them making countless millionaires out of people who invested as little as $10k.

[mount teide] 02/2/2023 07:58

ash - the best companies can often be relatively expensive - Apple has been very expensive for decades but it has not stopped them making countless millionaires out of people who invested as little as $10k.

[tom111] 02/2/2023 07:56

Good LTH for me nothing to dislike as Malcy says lol

[winnet] 02/2/2023 07:56

ash, let's not pick fights, there are some quite disagreeable posters on this board and you've been around long enough to know better. Just keep it clean then no problems./

On your point about 100 million payout, i agree, it is disappointing. However this guidance, was pre montara shut in. We all knew they were never going to do it... Had montara been flowing they would have probably met that commitment.

As things stand, they'll payout 20 million in buybacks plus another 20 in a small divi as per normal [i am speculating here], so 40 million returned based on 100 million is not so bad. I am very pleased with the value we have got from the buybacks.

[ashkv] 02/2/2023 07:54

Good that you filtered me HoldBucket - don't wish to interact with brainless clowns who invest in PANR..... low IQ clueless dimwit....


PANR - Alaska North Slope (moderated) - Post 31632
PANR Pantheon Resources Plc
Author: HoldBucket Posted on: 24 Jan 2023 22:35 Upvotes: 3
HoldBucket
hxxps://www.share-talk.com/pantheon-resources-aim-panr-video-webinar-presentation-and-qa-24th-january-2023/ for those that missed it - enjoy :)

HoldBucket
2 Feb '23 - 07:31 - 12258 of 12264
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Filter him! I don't even see the gibberish :)

[ashkv] 02/2/2023 07:36

Cursory overview of JSE with the info from 2 Feb 2023 Ops Update RNS

Enterprise Value / Flowing Barrel (Actual Current Production) is as for a share price of 82.4p at the second highest measurement per my periodic updates to my JSE file for the past 2 years... Certainly high value for EV/Flowing Barrel will alleviate with Montara restart if and when it transpires...

Try not to view management guidance with rose colored glasses...

JSE had guided for $100mn Net Payout Yield in 2022.... (Buybacks + Dividends + Special Dividends)

SP: 82.4
Brent: $83.50
Brent Current Price Performance vs 18 Aug 2021 low of $65.33 (GBPUSD 1.36): 27.81%
JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 66.4p on 14 Sep 2022: 24.10%
JSE Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 110p on 9 June 2022: -25.09%
Shares Outstanding: 448,368,190
GBPUSD: 1.24
Production Guidance 2023 (TBA): TBA
Estimated Current Production Ex-Montara: 9,168
Production Average for 2022: 11,487
Debt: Zero Debt
Cash (USD) 31 Dec 2022 (Per 2 Feb 23 Ops Update RNS): $122,000,000
Market Cap (GBP); £369,455,389
Market Cap (USD): $458,124,682
Cash % of Market Cap: 26.63%
Share Price Cash Component: 21.94p
ENTERPRISE VALUE (USD): $336,124,682
EV/Barrel(USD) 2023 Mid-Guidance: TBA
EV/Barrel(USD) Estimated Current Production Ex-Montara: $36,663
EV/Barrel(USD) 2022 Actual Average Production: $29,261
Decommissioning Expense (Asset Restoration - FY 2021 Results): $404,000,000

[mount teide] 02/2/2023 07:34

Highly encouraging update - to finish the year with the cash balance above the opening £118m was a tremendous achievement and, demonstrates well the potential for 2023, with Montara back on stream later this month, plus contributions from CWLH(where 50% of decommissioning liability was paid upfront) and the ahead of performance Stag wells drilled in 2022, where oil sales averaged a $22.78 premium to Brent.

Very impressed with how the management handled a challenging H2/2022 and has positioned the company for 2023, where I think the average OPEX across the assets is likely to drop by at least $10/bbl, and be worth around $80m/year in additional operating cash flow.

[ska_man] 02/2/2023 07:31

He be filtered !

[oilinvestoral] 02/2/2023 07:31

"Not a word on why buyback was stopped."---------PughmanLike you , I'm also very surprised...They previously purchased shares at over 100p! I would've thought 82p would've been a bargain ... Aggregate number of Ordinary Shares purchased: 37,063 Lowest price paid per Ordinary Share: 100.03 Highest price paid per Ordinary Share: 101.00 Volume weighted average price paid per Ordinary Share: 100.68

[holdbucket] 02/2/2023 07:31

Filter him! I don't even see the gibberish :)

[nigelpm] 02/2/2023 07:26

I know. Continually embarrasses himself across any board that has the unfortunate situation of him deciding to post his stream of gibberish.

[nigelpm] 02/2/2023 07:21

The buyback hasn't stopped.. the price is currently above what they are allowed to buy under agm resolutions

[nigelpm] 02/2/2023 07:20

Ash making stuff up as usual. Last RNS said montara will recommence in February. Today they say later this month.. try reading the RNS.

[pughman] 02/2/2023 07:18

Akatara spend for 22 a lot less than expected,which will bump up 23 Capex. Not a word on why buyback was stopped.