Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[croasdalelfc] 22/11/2021 08:33

Tapis premium to Brent increasing back to its traditional $4/5 a barrel. Montara and PM asset oil ( and Maari) all sold to Tapis benchmark . hTTps://www.aip.com.au/pricing/international-prices/international-market-watch

[mount teide] 21/11/2021 21:49

IMO 2020 Premiums to dated Brent for Australian heavy sweet(low sulphur) crude maintained at previous month's level.

S&P Global Platts - 17th Nov - 'Australia's heavy sweet Van Gogh crude for loading in Dec. 8-12 was recently sold at a premium of more than $7/b to Dated Brent'

[fardels bear] 21/11/2021 20:50

And yet, and yet.....

[11_percent] 19/11/2021 14:29

3rd Reading scheduled for Tuesday 23rd . 4th on list but 2 hours of debate are scheduled so might not complete until 24th. Royal assent is usually within 5 days .


For those that like to see the picture.

[mount teide] 19/11/2021 09:12

O/T

LG - apologies it was a typo.

Recently started a new ADV thread with charts:

[croasdalelfc] 19/11/2021 08:22

Also license expires in 2027 so any major investment would need it extending. Horizon forecast that the major spend would increase gross production to 7500bopd (5000bopd net to JSE)

[croasdalelfc] 19/11/2021 08:19

Horizon provision for decomm is $31m so prorate that is $82m for OMV : we could do with knowing if that is held in escrow until decomm.

[croasdalelfc] 19/11/2021 08:16

3rd Reading scheduled for Tuesday 23rd . 4th on list but 2 hours of debate are scheduled so might not complete until 24th. Royal assent is usually within 5 days .Should complete in November - some of the law comes into effect on the day of Royal assent . Worth reading the amendments as there are a lot of new definitions and . Some funds likely to be set aside for decommissioning.Horizon also talked about yesterday at AGM there is a transcript on horizon website . Also a forecast for production out to 2027.

[11_percent] 19/11/2021 01:51

Am not worried about the cost overrun on the H6 side track.....it is now producing at the expected rate.

Like wise with the Suka 10/11 workovers......as long as they produce as planned......the only worry is that there is a problem which can not be fixed and they do not produce......although I would have thought that unlikely to happen to both wells.

[lord gnome] 19/11/2021 00:10

Thanks KS - that's why it didn't come up in the search. I will take a look.

[king suarez] 18/11/2021 23:39

ADV - Advance Energy (not Advanced)

Listen here from 39mins in for a synopsis of the proposition:

[lord gnome] 18/11/2021 23:01

Advanced Energy MT? Excuse my ignorance but that's a new name to me. I can't find them. What's the epic, please?

[mount teide] 18/11/2021 20:44

After holding Petrotal(PTAL) for 2.5 years, reduced the investment by 50% this week for reasons expressed in a post on that thread.

Re-invested the proceeds raised by adding 100k to the holding in Jadestone taking it to 1.3m, and a little over 1m shares in Advanced Energy taking the holding to 5.5m.

[sea7] 18/11/2021 19:32

Croas - thanks - I have also added to my position here, again today.

[croasdalelfc] 18/11/2021 18:58

Regarding guidance - they might be able to increase barrels extracted on H6 and Skua once workovers are complete to ensure they do hit it. Plus the PM assets are likely to outperform in H2 unless they had scheduled downtime . We shall see in an ops update in a week or two

[croasdalelfc] 18/11/2021 18:55

The workovers are well overrun - they started around 18th Sept when the rig moved from Montara to Skua - so Day 62 or 63 when they were supposed to take 52 days.The current weakness imo is due to this uncertainty and inevitable capex overrun with the H6 well sidetrack and the workovers - what are rig day rates _ $100k , $150k . The capex overrun will take annual capex spend to the top end of the $105-115m range (that range in itself was increased from $85-95m at the interims to account for the sidetrack so not unknown)There is also a distinct possibility they will not hit guidance as wells at Montara were taken offline to drill H6 and then perform the skua workovers . Prolonged delays = less barrels extracted. Am I bothered? No - in fact I've topped up three times - now at

[sea7] 18/11/2021 17:22

The Skua-10 and Skua-11 workovers are estimated to take 21 and 31 days each, respectively, while drilling of the Montara H6 well is estimated to take 80 days.

.....

The 28th sept rns said Sku 11 had commenced - so that would be about the 28th Oct to finish, then Sku 10 would then start and should finish today or thereabouts.

[sea7] 18/11/2021 15:33

currently showing tugs and special craft nearing the valaris rig, with the two support vessels, go sirius and pacific valour near each tug/special craft - these special craft/tugs weren't in sight earlier

[king_baller] 18/11/2021 15:16

Hedgeye top note today on Oil - Big buying opportunity in WTI, Brent, and Energy Stocks from A) at the low-end of @Hedgeye Risk Range™ Signal this morning B) into options expiration tomorrow (Oil has had plenty of these selloffs) and C) post yesterday’s U.S. Crude Oil Inventories coming in lower than we expected at -11.5% year-over-year and -3.1% BELOW the 5yr low.

[fozzie] 18/11/2021 12:26

Continued share price weakness here, down 15% over the last month, it is a strange one given the macro picture but quite a few of my oil and gas plays have been similarly weak. Go figure.

[mount teide] 18/11/2021 11:14

As an activist high performing hedge fund manager holding 7% with a seat on the JSE Board, David is closer than most to the current cash generation data.

We have David Neuhauser to thank for recruiting Paul Blakeley to Jadestone Energy (Mitre Energy), followed by most of Paul's top team from Talisman Energy SE Asia, after its buy out by Repsol in a deal valuing the company at $8.3bn.

[llef] 18/11/2021 10:56

FYI - CIO of Livermore was on CNBC this morning.

Discussed Jadestone briefly, still likes it a lot, describing it as a "cash machine"

cheers

[mount teide] 18/11/2021 10:46

S93 - The JSE management has already stated they intend (subject to oil price and expected production performance of the field) to operate Montara until the end of its commercial life as an oil field(estimated as early/mid 2030's), before considering any potential opportunity to monetise the 0.5Tcf gas cap.

As previously posted, Shell has publicly stated they are actively investigating the potential of other undeveloped nat gas discoveries within a 30 mile radius of Crux, in an effort to help extend the commercial life of Crux were they to develop the asset into production.

Montara falls within this radius and has a potential nat gas development timeline that would enable a tie-in to Crux, as it would very likely fall beyond the plateaux production of any likely development date of Crux.

[spangle93] 18/11/2021 10:16

Dcarn - it was widely expected;y that Seven would try to monetise their stake in Crux before serious money needed to be spent. They are primarily a media company (Channel 7 in Australia is in this group).

Crux was being designed as a no-frills NNMI specifically for development of that field as a back fill to Prelude - timing of the project was dependent on Prelude progress which hasn't been smooth.

IMHO the chance of routing Montara's gas through Crux is slim to none, at least within the period that we are investing in it. They haven't reached FID yet, time to first gas after that is maybe 3 years if things go well, then the plant will be full of Crux over the plateau period.