Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[thedudie] 09/11/2021 10:49

Thought this might start to move today - the trend looks strong here.
Although it sometimes tests the patience of a saint!

[mount teide] 09/11/2021 08:50

Why U.S. Shale Won’t Go To War With OPEC+ - Oilprice.com

'It looks like we have entered a new era of high oil prices, with the stances of both OPEC + and the US Shale suggesting there is very limited downside for oil prices in the near future'

[mount teide] 08/11/2021 19:26

"I like to buy businesses that have a competitive advantage.
Ie A castle with a moat around it.
One of the best moat's is to be a LOW COST producer"
Warren Buffett

[squareloss] 08/11/2021 17:46

I see Fidelity have trimmed down to just below 5% from 5.016%
Hardly seems worth it but maybe just playing games for ESG purposes so they don’t have any holdings above 5% in those nasty fossil fuel companies!

[fardels bear] 08/11/2021 07:46

Chinese climate officials have said in recent days that La Niña is likely to bring a colder and more fluctuating climate to much of China this winter, with strong precipitation in the north.'Yet another body that fails to understand the difference between climate and weather.

[croasdalelfc] 07/11/2021 22:32

PS it's Lemang for any newbies -

[croasdalelfc] 07/11/2021 22:31

hTTps://sekato.id/pemasangan-pipa-baru-jadestone-energy-akan-dilaksanakan-tahun-2022/Permits given and suggests pipeline laying starting May 22

[croasdalelfc] 07/11/2021 22:30

SEKATO.ID | TANJABBAR – A company engaged in the oil and gas sector, Jadestone Energy, which is located in Mekarjaya Village, Betara District, West Tanjaungjabung Regency some time ago has carried out an exposure and discussed planning for the installation of new pipes in a number of sub-districts.Previously, in the Betara sub-district there was a company called Mandala Lemang Energy, and now it has been replaced by Jadestone Energy.Based on the information collected, the new company engaged in the oil and gas sector has been exposed since October 27, 2021. And already has an environmental permit from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (Energy of Mineral Resources)Mekarjaya Village Head, Khairul Syahri. S.AP when confirmed, he stated that he participated in the exspose which was held at the One Stop Service Investment Office (DPMPTSP) of West Tanjab."Yes, yesterday we attended the meeting with relevant stakeholders, from the village there were all, but if the community, NGOs and the media did not exist," he said. Wednesday (03/11/2021).Related articleHe said the meeting also discussed plans for the installation of new gas pipes in two sub-districts, namely Betara and Bramitam, which will be carried out in 2022."The installation of a new pipe is approximately 40 km long, covering two sub-districts to Semau Village, he said in May 2022, the pipe installation will only be carried out," he said.

[alphorn] 07/11/2021 13:34

Always an interesting view on hedges. A true hedge (forex, commodities etc etc) is to lock in the results of future trading. Any 'gain or loss' is a comparison of not having carried out the hedge - IMO very misleading unless properly explained. Not an uncommon strategy - eg a global group selling very high volume, low margin goods may chose to lock in its forex exposure before the trading period starts. True hedges in the airline should be no different, locking in what is needed for future trading - any more is speculation. The last sentence in your post talks about trading certainty in the IAG case.

[mount teide] 07/11/2021 13:22

Airlines Act as If $80 Oil Is Heading Even Higher - Bloomberg 5th November

Flying High - Airlines lock-in crude prices as fuel bills rally

'Fresh from losing billions of dollars from bad oil-price hedges because of Covid, many of the world’s airlines are once again trying to protect themselves from soaring fuel costs.

European carriers including Lufthansa Group, Air France-KLM and Ryanair have said in recent days that they fixed at least half of their fuel bills for parts of next year.

Others from further afield like Southwest Airlines, Alaska Air Group and Turkish Airlines have all boosted their hedge positions in recent months.

Not every company in the airline industry hedges against higher oil prices, but those that did racked up losses of almost $5 billion at one stage during the pandemic because they effectively forward-purchased millions of tons of fuel they didn’t need. Their return signals confidence about future demand to travel.

For the oil market, it also means a large consumer is back and bidding for barrels in the future again, easing a liquidity vacuum that built up late last year.

“We continue to see significant opportunities to buy fuel forward,” Michael O’Leary, chief executive officer of Ryanair said on a call with analysts. “We’ve hedged our fuel requirements with a mix of jet swaps and caps.”

Carriers are coming back to the market as they have eaten through the hedges they placed before the pandemic, just as capacity picks up again and fuel prices rally to near their highest level in seven years.

Still, while they’ve returned, the way they are hedging has changed compared with the pre-Covid era. Where in the past they would sell put options to cheapen the cost of their hedges, now they are favoring swaps that give a less risky exposure to price moves.

Also, while airline capacity is still down, they are also hedging a smaller portion of their fuel bills, meaning they are less insured against a surge, but equally less at risk of another demand implosion. The hedges also tend to be shorter-term than they used to be.

Jury Is Out
Some are also reluctant to return to a market that has burned them in the past. One trader at a major U.S. airline said their company had little appetite to lock in prices at current levels. Low-cost European carrier Wizz Air abandoned hedging earlier this year, but fielded several questions from analysts on its earnings call this week about whether it was prudent to do so, given the surge in oil prices. “The company has actually lost a lot of money on fuel hedging” in the past, Chief Financial Officer Jourik Hooghe said. “I think the jury is out, we’ll see how the actors are going to behave in the future.”

Others are coming back to the market but cautiously. British Airways owner IAG SA said it doesn’t want to hedge too much unless it is sure of flight volumes. It has boosted its hedging for next year to about 40%, but said it will only lock in prices more than two years out in exceptional circumstances. In the equivalent period before the pandemic it was about 70% hedged for the following year.

Some are already seeing the benefits. At current prices, Air France said it stands to gain $350 million from its hedge book this year, while IAG said it had made about $200 million from gains partly made up of fuel hedges. But a sharp pullback in oil down to the low-$50s could see Germany’s Lufthansa stand to lose about $1 billion, a stark reminder of losses from the last 18 months.

“You don’t want to start building your hedge book too quickly unless the demand -- and you know you’re going to be flying this capacity -- is certain,” said Steve Gunning, chief financial officer at IAG. “I think that certainty has been building over the last month or two.” '

[mount teide] 07/11/2021 10:27

Oil Market Analysis from Goldman Sachs - Market Watch - 5th November


'Following a nine-week streak of gains, the longest for front-month contracts based on records going back to April 1983, for the week, WTI prices lost nearly 2.8%, for a second weekly loss.

“The now open disagreement between OPEC+ and the US administration, the threat of an SPR release and the potential resumption in negotiations with Iran will increase the volatility in oil prices in coming weeks..” said a team of analysts at Goldman Sachs in a note dated Nov. 4.

But they said even if the US tapped its emergency oil supplies, such a move would be of “modest and temporary help and could in fact backfire given the structural nature of the oil market deficits starting in 2023.”

The Goldman analysts told oil bulls to hold their ground, as the the oil market is undersupplied and facing more volatility.

“Net, our bullish view remains unchanged: the oil deficit remains unresolved, the current strength in oil demand remains a near-term tailwind and the increasingly structural nature of the deficits will require much higher long-dated oil prices,” the analysts said.

Goldman said their favoured bullish oil trade now is a long December 2022 contract, which offers “the best return vs. volatility trade off as perceived near-term bearish risks (COVID, OPEC, Iran, US SPR) would only further delay the required ramp-up in investment and exacerbate the structural deficits that we forecast starting in 2023.”

Goldman has a $90-a-barrel end-2021 forecast for Brent crude.'

[mount teide] 06/11/2021 09:05

Long stock market history has shown its rarely a poor choice to front run the smart money (Vulture Hedge Funds).

With the continuing rush into expensive and unreliable renewable energy while turning the O&G industry into pariah's, there's probably never been a better time during the last 70 years to invest in producing oil and gas companies. This is a golden opportunity.

Some much needed insight today from the Telegraph on the rapidly developing global energy crisis.

Suspect it's going to take years of increasing voter pain of rampant inflation, rocketing energy costs, winter blackouts and empty shelves before politicians are finally brought to their senses.


We'll all pay for turning Big Oil into a pariah - Telegraph

'The irony could scarcely have been greater. There he was on the world stage at the Cop26 climate change summit in Glasgow lecturing China and others on their tardiness in consigning fossil fuels to the dustbin of history. But in almost the same breath, President Joe Biden was urging Saudi Arabia and other Opec members to increase their production of oil and gas so as to lower energy prices and reduce the pressure on inflation. You cannot have it both ways, yet as it turns out, Biden is as much a cake and eat it man as Boris Johnson.

If nothing else, the apparent contradiction in aims highlights a basic truth about “Big Oil”; like it or not, the world remains overwhelmingly dependent on hydrocarbons for its energy needs; however fast we invest in alternatives, that’s not going to change for some time to come.

Both of Britain’s oil majors, BP and Shell, have ambitious plans to transform themselves into clean energy enterprises, yet to the fury of Extinction Rebellion activists, the bulk of their investment is still heavily focused on oil and gas. As it is, they are arguably not investing nearly enough in hydrocarbons.

Since the start of the pandemic, ongoing global investment in energy has fallen by around a third. According to some estimates, it is running at approximately half the level needed to power a world economy that is firing on all cylinders. The deficiency is at its most acute in hydrocarbons, where the proselytising pressures for divestment have become almost irresistible.

Nor has investment rebounded in the way it normally would in response to higher prices. With their climate change agendas, governments are perilously close to imposing a hugely costly energy crisis on themselves. Investment in alternatives is still nowhere near the critical mass needed to fill the growing gap being left by old and dependable energy sources.

“If you take away supply, but demand does not change”, Bernard Looney, chief executive of BP, said this week in response to calls to halt further North Sea drilling, “all that happens is that prices go up”. By curtailing emissions within the UK, we merely export them to places that are less choosy, notably China, whose economies benefit at our expense. It’s a high price to pay for virtue.

Today’s surge in oil and gas prices would historically have been mirrored in the share prices of the oil majors. The fact that it largely hasn’t been is not primarily about an industry in terminal decline. There is plenty of money to be made from time-limited runoff, as the growing brigade of “vulture funds” and activist investors stepping in where mainstream investment institutions increasingly fear to tread, readily appreciate.

Rather it is that the likes of BP and Shell have become pariah companies, and are shunned accordingly in much the same way as the tobacco giants were 20 years ago; once a core holding for any pension or investment fund, few mainstream money managers any longer want anything to do with them.

As with tobacco, their place is increasingly taken by the less squeamish at rock bottom prices.

But despite the superficial parallel, there is a key difference. Tobacco is an indulgence, and serves no useful social purpose. However much we might wish it otherwise, oil and gas will long remain our primary source of life enhancing energy.

And yet the industry is being driven underground by politicians and regulators too cowed to stand up to the hysteria of the climate change activists. The enemy within is almost as bad as the holier than thou pressures from without; oil company boards, together with those of their bankers, are these days stacked with well meaning do-gooders more focused on bowing to the campaigners than the demands of shareholder value.

The history of companies that attempt to jump from one horse to another is not good. Nearly always, value ends up destroyed. Virtually all past attempts by BP at “green investment” have failed.

Managements should stick to what they know, however unfashionable it might have become. Vulture funds trying to force Shell’s directors to divest itself of its renewables arm, and refocus on the old endeavour of cash generative hydrocarbons, have got a point. The collective judgement of millions of investors on where to put the money generated by oil industry runoff is likely to be a good deal better than that of those clambering aboard a politically directed bandwagon.

Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, dreams of making the City of London the green finance capital of the world, threatening to delist companies that don’t comply with net zero targets. I imagine that this will have the very opposite effect to the one intended. Rather than acting as a magnet, it threatens a mass exodus of companies to less demanding jurisdictions, or into the hands of secretive private equity.

Boris Johnson believes the green transition offers the chance of economic rebirth. I hope he is right. Just as likely it marks another staging post in self inflicted Western decline. You go first, says China, hoovering up the world’s productive capacity as it goes.'

[mount teide] 05/11/2021 23:46

The Power of Leverage

Doubling production in H2/2021 could not have been better timed by the management to leverage the $30/bbl rise in the Brent price in 2021:

Operating Cash Flow Generation/yr:
$110 million - at production of 10,000 bopd at $52.5 Brent in Jan 2021
$481 million - at production of 20,000 bopd at current $82.5 Brent price

The result - a 337% increase in operating cash flow - this demonstrates well the Power of Leverage that a rising oil price has on a largely fixed cost operation; and in particular, when the overall OPEX/bbl is materially lowered by a production increase (Montara) and newly acquired production(PM) with a very low OPEX/bbl.


The Power of Leverage in a rising oil price environment:
Production of 20,000 bopd at $82.5 Brent produces the same operating cash flow at $20/bbl OPEX as:

28,700 bopd at $62.5/bbl Brent
36,666 bopd at $52.5/bbl
50,770 bopd at $42.5/bbl
82,250 bopd at £32.5/bbl
155,200 bopd at $25.0/bbl

AIMHO/DYOR

[mount teide] 05/11/2021 19:22

Joe, dont Blame 'high' oil prices for the energy crisis and surge in inflation its triggered - record Coal and Nat Gas pricing is responsible, not oil, which is currently priced at less than half its inflation adjusted 2008 peak!


The Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said he was 'very sorry' Britons were already seeing inflation 'biting' into their household incomes and that they will continue to be hit hard this winter .... warning that higher energy prices could become permanent due to the switch away from coal to tackle climate change.

Bailey offered (correctly), that the huge surge in price of nat gas was the main factor behind inflation (see chart below), and said prices could well stay at this higher level due to the global switch to net zero.

"It is reasonable and necessary to think that we might transition from more polluting hydrocarbons to less polluting hydrocarbons until eventually let's hope we emerge in a much more complete renewable economy," he said.

"Then part of it would be permanent higher prices, not higher inflation but a level change in energy prices."

The cost of gas has risen by 400% in the past year.

The Banks Monetary Policy Committee released forecasts about the estimated hit to household wealth that will come from rising inflation and taxes.

The gloomy forecast suggested the Bank does not believe energy prices will fall anytime soon.

[11_percent] 05/11/2021 14:25

Ok.....cheers.

[croasdalelfc] 05/11/2021 13:13

You can set an alert for when the bill next goes before the House - the second reading . Also you can check the order of business for the next sitting 9th NovNB the lazy deckers only sit on Tuesday to Thursday each week!

[11_percent] 05/11/2021 11:49

For those that want to follow progress....see link.

As Croasdalelfc says.....has just moved from Select Committee to Second Reading.

[croasdalelfc] 05/11/2021 08:40

If you look at the progress of a selection of previous bills : if can as quick as 3 weeks up to 2 months from the end of select committee reports to Royal assent. This bill was supported by all parties so debated but not contested. The only objectors were industry and green lobby. One side saying to onerous the other too lenient!Once it has the second reading - which might take a while as select committee reports etc need to be considered : then imo the process is rapid - 2/3 weeks.Conclusion: depending when they break for Xmas : it could be complete before Xmas or early in Nww year.Parliament breaks for Xmas on 16th Dec!

[croasdalelfc] 05/11/2021 08:12

Maari milestone - the NZ bill reaches its proposed 2nd Reading in the House.Not sure when that will happen tho

[mount teide] 04/11/2021 17:57

Green hyperinflation reaches Cop26 in Glasgow - Telegraph

'Contrary to general belief - or the pious certitudes of Extinction Rebellion and those protesting outside the Cop26 perimeter - high finance has already slashed fossil funding. That is why we now have a global energy crunch, and why it will become progressively more serious over the next two years.

Upstream and downstream investment in oil, gas, and coal peaked at $1.3 trillion in 2014. It has since collapsed to nearer $350bn, and has not rebounded in the usual cyclical fashion with rising prices. Nor have the shares of oil majors such as Shell or Exxon, still languishing far below even pre-pandemic levels despite the oil rally. Markets are pricing in terminal run-off.

But renewable growth has not been enough to pick up the slack. Total energy investment is running at $700bn, half the maintenance funding needed to power the world’s $86 trillion economy when it is in full expansion mode. We have a colossal mismatch.

“There is no green switch we can flip, and move from being economies where four fifths of global energy is supplied by fossil fuels today, and overnight be 100pc supplied by renewables,” said Mr Carney.

It has been a mistake to vilify the whole fossil industry, lumping good with bad, in an indiscriminate rush to disinvest..... '