Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 18/10/2021 12:34

L2 strengthening from 2 v 2 to 4 v 2 / 88p v 90p (rest between 91p and 95p)

[winnet] 18/10/2021 11:59

the above makes the 1.3% divi look mean.

[croasdalelfc] 18/10/2021 11:41

$86 Brent With around 3 weeks until Skua 11 and 10 come online and 20kbopd milestone is reached - 85% will be getting $89/barrel12% -$94-95/barrel3% - gasOperating cash flow ~$70/ barrel or $42m a month - $500m a year -

[fardels bear] 18/10/2021 10:06

Nor can I but obviously somebody can

[squareloss] 18/10/2021 09:55

I took another 50,000 this morning, been adding on the way up as I just can’t see how these aren’t much higher given their excellent net backs and potential to do something transformational on the acquisition front.

[fardels bear] 18/10/2021 09:40

I've got a quarter of a million already and I ain't as rich as Croesus or MT.

[winnet] 18/10/2021 09:20

You mean it's under the PI radar. Institutional money has long been interested in this business for obvious reasons. Just buy more IMO. Assuming everything goes as planned it's a no-brainer 100's soon.

[fardels bear] 18/10/2021 09:09

This share that goes down when oil goes up is so far under the radar it would make a marvellous stealth weapon..

[bamboo2] 18/10/2021 08:25

The Brent chart I am looking at is suggesting we are about to meet a small area of historical resistance centred around approx $86.72

Also anticipating a possible turn midweek. This could coincide with the hr.

A test of the breakout zone around $84 and/or a few sessions of consolidation would not surprise me. None of this will last very long, and next week should see a resumption of the uptrend.

[mount teide] 17/10/2021 17:29

Move Over Tech, Energy Is The New Bull Market!

In-house research from Wood Mac on how the O&G sector will be spending its incoming record cash flows in 2021, forecast at $1 trillion at $50 oil, and, what Asian Governments should be doing to turnaround the current 5 million boe/day shortfall in Nat Gas production, that with burgeoning demand is set to surge to 17 million boe/day by 2040.


Upstream oil and gas: record cash flows and peak uncertainty - Wood Mac 8th October 2021

'Wood Mackenzie’s Global Energy Summit Upstream Focus Day has addressed some of the biggest issues facing the industry. How will the upstream industry use an incoming US$1 trillion price windfall? Should Asian governments be doing more to resuscitate declining gas production? And what is the future for exploration in this region?

In previous upcycles the pattern has tended to be the same – higher revenues and cashflow lead to rising upstream spend. But the energy transition has upset the outlook for oil and gas producers, changing the rules of the game for not only international oil companies (IOCs), but also national operators and host governments. Crucial decisions will be required on capital allocation, the pace of decarbonisation and future energy policy.

“At current Brent prices the upstream industry will generate a wall of cash,” research director Kavita Jadhav said. “We estimate the 42 largest IOCs will generate a windfall of over US$1 trillion if prices keep tracking above a US$50/bbl industry planning price. But how to invest this bounty? US$80/bbl oil gives companies options, and a chance to do it all – return cash to shareholders, maintain oil and gas investment, and accelerate investment in low carbon opportunities. The current upcycle presents a golden opportunity to reposition for a very different future.”

The energy transition has created unprecedented uncertainty over long-term oil and gas demand, changing stakeholder expectations and company strategies. Creating a business model that is both resilient and sustainable is the challenge.

A temporary windfall, alongside higher global oil and gas prices, also raises important questions for governments across Asia. Falling domestic gas production increases exposure to international LNG markets and pricing. Spot LNG prices in Asia have more than quadrupled over the last few months to over US$30/mmbtu. As security of supply concerns reverberate around the globe, should Asian governments be doing more to resuscitate declining gas production?

It may seem counter-intuitive and unpopular to talk about incentives for upstream investment at a time when IOCs are set for record profits, but a declining share of that upstream spend is being invested in Asia,” research director Angus Rodger said.

The current shortfall between Asian gas production and demand is nearly 5 million boe/d. With production on a downward trajectory and demand looking robust – due to both coal-to-gas switching and the need to back up intermittent renewables capacity - that gap looks set to hit 17 million boe/d by 2040.

This means Asia will continue to be the engine room for rising global LNG demand over the next two decades. While this is great news for LNG producers, it will increase domestic governments’ exposure to global price swings and supply risks.

But Asia isn’t gas resource short,” Rodger said. “Across Asia Pacific over 90 billion boe of resources is currently considered commercial and is currently onstream or under development. Another 47 billion boe is currently discovered but uncommercial. We have significant resources that are stranded due to high carbon footprints or unattractive fiscal terms.”

One of the key questions debated at the upstream summit is the importance of the right fiscal terms. With a dearth of ongoing exploration activity, and a suite of large pre-FID gas projects that are urgently required to enhance domestic supply but are struggling to progress , governments need to rethink how to incentivise new investment, production and decarbonisation.

“Because there is no guarantee that higher prices will lead to high levels of upstream reinvestment, as we have traditionally seen in the past, Asian governments need to compete more for international investment,” Rodger said. “The key is deciding what you want your fiscal policies to achieve – to harvest the remaining upstream value, incentivise new investment, or expedite the transition to renewables?”

Governments need to create adaptable fiscal systems that can evolve and support these new forms of investment. Rodger said: “It is crucial that fiscal terms complement and support the energy goals of each nation. The fiscal structures of previous decades are likely no longer fit for purpose in a world experiencing an accelerating energy transition.'

[mount teide] 16/10/2021 21:16

Based on the market fundamentals Goldman is forecasting $85/bbl Brent for the next several years.

At that price Jadestone would probably be generating operating net backs of circa $65-70/bbl. At a production level of 20,000 rising to 30,000 bopd, it doesn't take a Phd in Applied Mathematics to work out what that means in terms of operating cash flow generation/yr - when set against a current market cap of $575 million


Goldman Sachs says oil prices could be higher for much longer - CNBC Energy




'Oil prices could stay at higher levels in the years to come as demand rebounds while supply remains tight, according to Goldman Sachs’ head of energy research.

Damien Courvalin, who is also a senior commodity strategist, said the market fundamentals warrant higher prices and that the bank’s forecast for Brent crude is $85 per barrel for the next several years.

“This is not a transient winter shock like it could be for gas. This is actually the beginning of a material repricing higher for oil,” he told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” '

[mount teide] 15/10/2021 12:29

O/T - finished building a modest 1.0 million position in Advance Energy (ADV) today at an average of 3.2p.

Tennyson's research note details the valuation potential well:


Experienced BoD - Ex shell / BP/ Mid caps - own circa 7.5% of the company.

[mount teide] 15/10/2021 11:17

Between PM and on completion of Maari - Jadestone Energy will have likely received a net consideration of circa $85 million for circa 10,000 bopd of producing assets with 24 mmbo of P2 reserves.....which have re-investment potential to maintain this level of production for circa 5 years.... and are currently generating operating cash flow close to $250 million a year!

AIMHO/DYOR

Whoever it was who previously suggested Paul Blakeley was overpaid needs to improve their investment research or stick to premium bonds.

[mount teide] 15/10/2021 10:41

Another contender is likely to be the 3,500 bopd Maari acquisition in New Zealand from OMV ...expected to complete late this year or in Q1/2022, it has a $50 million headline purchase price but an effective economic date, that following the oil price recovery has generated a net consideration to Jadestone Energy probably close to $75 million on completion.

Maari's current revenue attributable to Jadestone Energy under the deal is circa $110 million a year, which is likely generating circa $82 million of cash-flow before modest capex and other adjustments.

AIMHO/DYOR

Production/OPEX Data Source: Horizon Oil - which holds 26% of the Maari asset.

[mount teide] 15/10/2021 09:14

Brent hits $85 - a 7 year high.

The PM assets will be realising close to $70/bbl of cash-flow before Capex and other adjustments.

Generating annual revenue of circa $206 million a year and circa $166 million of cash-flow...... for an asset producing circa 6,500 boepd(with re-investment potential to keep the average production around this level for 5 years)....that was acquired for a headline purchase price of $9 million, that on completion produced a net consideration of over $9m from the effective economic date.

If the Montara acquisition was the best deal the team has achieved in 25 years, the PM deal must be a very close second.

AIMHO/DYOR

[mount teide] 14/10/2021 12:16

Actual spread this morning is 92.0p v 92.9p

So, 430k of the 450k of transaction volume reported this morning have been BUYS.

[fardels bear] 14/10/2021 10:50

Sorry, that's not true. I tried 75 in a single tranche but that wouldn't go so I split it in two.

[fardels bear] 14/10/2021 10:49

I couldn't get 50 in a single order.. Mine were about 37 grand each

[thommie] 14/10/2021 10:47

good one. that means the 3x 50k stakes at 92,9 were buys as well :)

[fardels bear] 14/10/2021 10:40

Added. 92.93p to buy on quite large ordera

[mount teide] 14/10/2021 10:14

Marine Fuel Oil - such is the demand for the three types of fuel oil used by the shipping industry, Marine Gas Oil (MGO) blew through the $120/bbl level today....Very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) is now touching $100/bbl and the thick tar like high sulphur fuel oil is now changing hands ABOVE Brent at more than $85/bbl.

[mount teide] 13/10/2021 18:23

The shipping industry used 5.5m bopd of marine fuel oil in 2020 - consumption is forecast to rise by at least 30% by 2030 to 7.15m bopd.

The post pandemic global economic recovery has triggered the latest shipping industry market cycle boom with Clarkson's reporting that shipbuilding orders in 2021 are up TEN fold on 2021 to a level that exceeds the last boom cycle peak of 2007, and the highest since they commenced reporting on the market in 1996!

Shipbuilding Orders Continue to Build Towards a Record Year - Maritime Executive

'As the third quarter comes to a close, the turnaround for the shipbuilding industry in 2021 continues to set records, exceeding forecasts after years of slow performance. With three months remaining in the year, the industry remains optimistic that 2021 will provide years of work for shipbuilders.

With new orders appearing on a weekly basis for containerships, Clarkson Research is now reporting that the total global volume of new orders for containerships based on gross tonnage is the largest since the agency started tallying the market in 1996. The volume is reported to be about 12 times the total volume of new orders placed during the first three quarters of 2020. Further, the orders have now exceeded the last boom cycle in 2007.

While the increase in the size of vessel accounts for some of the records, measured in TEU capacity the sector is also on track for multiple records in 2021. As of the end of August, industry trade association BIMCO was already reporting that containership orders were approaching 5.3 million TEU and in the last month advanced at least another 300,000 TEU. BICO calculated the all-time high at 6.8 million TEU that were on order at the end of July 2008.

Other segments of the shipping industry are also moving forward with an increased number of new orders. China and South Korea are the largest recipients of these orders with both countries reporting strong results at the end of the third calendar quarter of the year.

South Korea’s three large shipbuilding companies have each reported that they have now achieved or exceeded their annual order targets. South Korea’s Pulse news outlet reports that it is the first time since 2013 that the country’s three major shipbuilders have all met their yearly goals.

Tallying the orderbooks, Pulse reported that Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering has surpassed its annual target of $14.9 billion by 30 percent with orders currently valued at $19.4 billion to build 201 vessels. The orders range from LNG carriers to containerships, very large crude carriers, LPG carriers, and petrochemical carriers. Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering’s orders now stand at $8 billion for 46 vessels, surpassing the yearly target of $7.7 billion. Samsung Heavy Industries’ orders total $7.8 billion or 86 percent of its annual target of $9.1 billion. The company is expected to officially exceed its target as it completes a contract reported to be valued at more than $2.6 billion with Russia’s Novatek.

China’s shipbuilding industry is also reporting strong growth in 2021. The China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry (CANSI), reported that new orders are up more than 200 percent on a tonnage basis in 2021. China reports that the total order book is up by more than a quarter standing at over 91 million dwt. Nearly 90 percent of the orders are for export to the international market and the strong growth in orders in 2021 has helped China to maintain its overall 50 percent share of the global shipbuilding industry.'

[mount teide] 13/10/2021 18:06

The Baltic Dry Index has surged over 1,300% since Covid-19 2020 low....the result of a global economic recovery that is proving much too strong for supply chains - Maersk forecasts that global container demand growth will be between six and eight percent for all of 2021!(Compared to a long term annual average of 2%)

“Unless demand drops significantly after the holiday rush, this could be a multi-year problem.”


Congestion, Delays and Supply Chain Challenges Will Continue into 2022 _ Maritime Executive

'Across all segments of the shipping industry, one thing that everyone agrees on is that there is no quick solution to the supply chain disruptions and challenges that have been experienced in 2021. The major carriers, as well as the ports, are warning that the surge is likely to persist, which will continue to drive shortages, lack of capacity, and increasing rates.

“We advise customers to plan their supply chains well ahead, particularly for the upcoming holiday rush,” writes Maersk in its Asia Pacific market update sent to customers on September 27. “We expect strong export demand from Asia to continue for the rest of the year particularly into the U.S. and Europe. Inventory levels in Europe and the U.S. remain at their lowest levels on record, leading to stock outs on some products. This means even once retail demand declines, we will see cargo volumes continue to remain strong as inventory levels need to be rebuilt.”

The visible signs of the surge resulted in the broad coverage of the record number of vessels arriving at the southern California ports and record backlogs. However, those same issues are resulting in backlogs at ports around the globe and it is having a broad effect on liner service.

Ocean carriers’ schedule reliability continues to decline, with delays of up to 30 days on the worst-hit China to EU routes, and nearly 22 days on the worst-hit China to U.S. West coast routes according to container tracking data from project44, a data platform offering real-time supply chain visibility.

“There’s no quick fix here,” says Josh Brazil VP, Data Insights, project44. “Unless demand drops significantly after the holiday rush, this could be a multi-year problem.”

Maersk forecasts that global container demand growth will be between six and eight percent for all of 2021 saying that it continues to take steps similar to other major carriers to alleviate the delays. Maersk highlights efforts to rationalize its schedules, repositioning empty containers, and tripling the number of dry freight containers in its fleet over the last few months. The carrier also plans to reduce the number of port calls on some routes to improve reliability.

“Continued strong demand, coupled with network disruptions has hammered our schedule reliability,” Maersk admits to customers in its update. However, they warn that they expect equipment availability to continue to be tight in Q4 2021. “We expect Q4 to be stronger for Asia imports with network utilization remaining above 95 percent,” but the carrier also points to congestion in ports and supply chain bottlenecks as the “true drivers of high freight rates.”

Maritime short-term contracted rates continue their multi-year rise across major trade lanes said project44 in its latest market analysis. Using data from Xeneta, they highlighted average China-EU container rates rising by triple digits year-over-year across while for China-US West Coast routes, short-term contracted rates were up 102 percent year-over-year.

“Shippers can no longer absorb the costs,” says project44’s Brazil. “Sustained astronomical shipping rates coupled with a delayed supply are already causing inflationary pressures in the broader economy.” Project44 highlights that shippers are faced with increasing delays and slower service and little way to avoid the problems. With few alternatives, project44 says shippers are being forced to cover the price increases.

Speaking on a Bloomberg TV interview, the Port of Los Angeles’s Executive Director Gene Seroka said the pressure points are throughout the supply chain. While liner capacity has increased 30 percent on the major trans-Pacific routes and vessel productivity is up 50 percent in the port, Seroka admits that cargo is sitting longer at the ports and warehouses and vessels are backing up. Calling for the domestic supply chain to speed velocity, Seroka highlighted to Bloomberg that truck capacity at the port has only risen eight percent since the surge began and as much as 30 percent of truck reservations are going unused.'

The EU and BBC laid the blame four square with Brexit!