Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 08/12/2021 00:08

Goldman is out with its top 10 commodity trades for 2022 - in order of preference:

1 - Long Brent
2 - Long Nat Gas
3 - Long Copper
4 - Long Aluminium
5 - Long Gold
6 - Long Platinum
7 - Long Corn
8 - Long Soyabeans
9 - Long Cotton
10 - Long Coffee

[bamboo2] 07/12/2021 20:08

Fardels, a surprising correlation.

[mount teide] 07/12/2021 19:55

According to a poster on London SE with a ship position website subscription account , an oil tanker is currently alongside Montara Venture - so TWO cargo liftings in Q4/2021 from Montara.

[fardels bear] 07/12/2021 18:39

Don't make the mistake of thinking that we pump it ashore daily and get the price that it makes when it hits the shore it's going into a floating container isn't it which only needs to be emptied a few times a year so we get the price ruling when it gets emptied

[bamboo2] 07/12/2021 18:08

Fardels, yes the last few calls on JSE were duff.
Either not materialising, or going the wrong way!

I didn't see the recent dip on the Brent chart being as severe as it turned out. I thought we'd see a short term v-bottom. It manifested as a Head and shoulders, finding support at the $64.50 ish level. This level on the daily chart has been tested three times now, and has held.

I anticipate a quick return to approx $82

I am holding here, based on the recovering oil price.

[fardels bear] 07/12/2021 17:49

That Bamboo chap came on and said that about two weeks ago and what happened? It went down again

[winnet] 07/12/2021 15:59

I have to say, the chart on this is looking very good... Not that i really use these mystic tools much...

[e43] 07/12/2021 14:56

Generally UK listed O&G shares have underperformed relative to their US peers,the likes of Chevron are now at yearly highs,so wouldn't be surprising to see JSE and several others to perform strongly over the next few weeks.

[winnet] 07/12/2021 12:57

Would be nice, we've been floundering at these levels for far too long IMO.

[11_percent] 07/12/2021 12:41

I reckon its all 3.

Skua workover news......oil price on the up.....and Maari all but in the bag.

[mount teide] 07/12/2021 12:35

L2: moved from 4 v 4 / 80p v 83p (rest between 84p and 87p)

to 5 v 3

[lord gnome] 07/12/2021 11:39

All buys today. I reckon those two trades of 125,000 at around 08.30 were a single put-through. Must have cleared a bit of a log jam as the price has been moving up steadily since then.

[dcarn] 07/12/2021 11:29

There could possibly be a trading & ops update due as well, we got one on 4th Dec last year.

Probably waiting for a least one of the above to complete given they appear imminent.

[king suarez] 07/12/2021 10:50

And/or Maari handover completion + oil price rise?

[mount teide] 07/12/2021 10:31

L2: 4 v 1 / 80p v 82p (rest between 83p and 87p)

Over 400k transaction volume in the first two hours of trading this morning - the cynic might suggest news of the completion of the work-over programme is probably nigh !

[mount teide] 07/12/2021 00:51

Euroclear's November Stock on Loan(short) Report published today:

Selected O&G Sector Company Analysis

0.06% - Jadestone Energy / (Up from 0.03%)

0.22% - Advanced Energy / (Down from 0.34%)

0.62% - Savannah Energy / (Up from 0.43%)

0.59% - PetroTal / (down from 0.66%)

1.98% - Pantheon Resources / (down from 2.67%)

2.27% - Shell / (up from 1.81%)

3.09% - BP / (down from 3.76%)

3.60% - Enquest / (up from 3.00%)

7.27% - Cairn / (up from 6.16%)

8.37% - Touchstone Exp / (No Change)

[mount teide] 07/12/2021 00:33

Halliburton Sees World Headed for Oil Scarcity Amid Spending Cut - Bloomberg today

'Halliburton, the biggest provider of fracking, warned that the world is headed into a period of scarcity for oil after seven years of underinvestment following crude’s plummet from $100 a barrel in 2014.

“For the first time in a long time, we’ll see a buyer looking for a barrel of oil as opposed to a barrel of oil looking for a buyer,” Jeff Miller, chief executive officer at the Houston-based oilfield contractor, told an audience at the World Petroleum Congress on Monday.

Halliburton has seen spending by crude explorers outside the US and Canada cut by roughly half compared with historical norms, Miller said.

The hired hands of the oil patch have also been squeezed this year by rising costs, while producers have sought to return profits to investors rather than boost spending.'

[mount teide] 06/12/2021 15:43

L2: 3 v 1 / 78p v 79p (then 1 x 81p, rest between 82p and 85p)

[winnet] 06/12/2021 13:48

ah, I see. Missed that... Thank you.

[fardels bear] 06/12/2021 13:26

They said they were going to extend it indefinitely and they weren't going to refer to it at all in any announcement until it actually went through although decided not to bother. So that we didn't keep getting deadlines.

[winnet] 06/12/2021 13:03

If the agreement is not ratified by the end of the month, what then?

"Jadestone and OMV NZ have agreed to extend the long stop date under the Maari sale and purchase agreement to 31 December 2021."

[mount teide] 05/12/2021 19:17

Shell abandons North Sea oil project: says economic case for Cambo is not strong enough amid concerns about delays from potential legal challenges or red tape.

They warned the lack of political support risked creating a hostile environment for investors needed to fund projects vital for oil and gas, which still accounts for 75% of the UK’s energy needs, as well as the green shift.

If Western countries make it impossible for their oil majors to invest in new exploration projects, rest assured someone else will.

India, Chinese and SE Asian oil companies and much of OPEC will do what Shell, BP, Chevron and Exxon increasingly won’t do.

If there were any significant financial gain from ‘green‘ energies, we would have seen a reduction of the electricity price. Unfortunately our energy bills went up, not down the more renewables were added to the energy supply mix, telling us the more windmills and solar panels we have, the more expensive energy becomes.

Western countries risk bankrupting themselves. And Asia will enjoy watching the show, because they certainly are not joining in the western stampede for renewables.

As sure as night follows day, the 4.8bn population of India, China and SE Asia, which is bolting on the 900 million population of the west every 12 years as growth, and which has an average per capita oil usage still less than one tenth of the West, will almost certainly have a peak oil demand well beyond 2035, since currently, more than 70% of energy there is generated from coal - which in China, according to the most optimistic forecast is not expected to drop to even 30% until 2050.

Going 'green' in India, China and SE Asia means transitioning to Oil and Gas, NOT renewables, which are a tiny fraction of energy generation and will almost certainly stay that way for decades to come.

AIMHO/DYOR

[mount teide] 05/12/2021 18:45

History of the Montara Asset since it was acquired by Jadestone Energy in late 2018 for a net consideration of $82m after adjustments from the headline price of $195m.

Cash flow Generation since 1/1/2019:

Est production from 1/1/2019 to 31/12/2019 - circa 10,000 bopd - 7.3m bbls
Est OPEX from 1/1/2019 to 31/12/2020 2020 - circa $20/bbl
Est price of Brent from 1/1/2019 to 31/12/2020 - $53.50/bbl
Est Montara IMO 2020 premium to Brent from 1/1/2019 to 31/12/2020 - $3.50/bbl
Est oil hedge price on circa 5,000 bopd from 1/1/2019 to 31/08/2020 - $70/bbl
Est crude oil price realised inclusive of IMO 2020 premium and hedge from 1/1/2019 to 31/12/2020 - $63/bbl

Estimated Cash flow generated from 1/1/2019 to 31/12/202 - 7.3m bbls (total production) x $43/bbl (op cash flow/bbl) = $314 million

Est H1/2021 production: 1.36m bbls
H1/2021 Average price of Brent: $63
Est H1/2020 IMO Premium - $1
Est H1/2021 OPEX: $20/bbl
Est H1/2021 operating cash flow: $60m

Est H2/2021 production: 1.55m bbls
Est H2/2021 Average price of Brent: $78
Est H2/2021 IMO Premium - $2
Est H2/2021 OPEX: $19/bbl
Est H2/2021 operating cash flow: $95m

Estimated 2021 operating cash flow: $155m

$469 million - Estimated operating cash flow during the first three years of ownership for an asset with 23.5 mm bbls of P2 reserves (as of 31/12/2020) that cost a net $82m million, with carried forward PRRT tax credits of approximately US$2.9 billion - plus a 0.5Tcf gas cap sitting on top of the oil reservoir for potential future development.

Estimated current annual production(pre Skua well work-overs) of 10.5k bopd/ 3.80m bbls a year, generating circa $215m/yr of operating cashflow, potentially rising to $275m/yr following successful completion of the Skua 10 and 11 well work-overs.

Montara and the recently acquired PM assets will be the very low OPEX(sub $20/bbl), high cash flow generating assets that will mostly fund the company's growth over the next 3 years.

AIMHO/DYOR