Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 15/7/2021 14:01

The 100,000 is being placed on the 75p bid at every intra day auction.

[mount teide] 15/7/2021 08:54

100,000 placed on the bid at 75p for the 9am auction

Broker Stifel has been sitting alone on the 75p bid accumulating in volume for the past two weeks.

[mount teide] 11/7/2021 15:27

Crude Awakening - Liam Halligan - Telegraph today


'As for global price pressures, oil last week hit a three-year high of $75 – 40pc up on a year ago. Part of the reason was the Opec exporters’ cartel delaying any increase in crude output levels.

But, even aside from Opec’s supply-side shenanigans, we’re in for demand-led price rises as the post-Covid global economy reboots. Wall Street analysts now predict oil averaging over $80 during the third quarter, with potential spikes well above that as demand comes roaring back.

While cheap Chinese exports helped contain global inflation during the recovery which followed the 2008 financial crisis, today’s increasingly sophisticated and much bigger Chinese economy drives inflation higher. The People’s Republic has become by far the world’s largest energy importer, with oil consumption soaring from 9.3 million to 14.1 million barrels daily during the decade from 2010, accounting for almost half the total rise in global oil use.

The internal combustion engine will be with us for some time – and while it is, Chinese oil demand will generate upward price pressures. Yes, more can be pumped, not least from US shale fields – but “lifting costs” of such crude are high. And, as we move to electric vehicles, the costs of the copper and “rare earth” elements such products require will replace oil as a source of price pressures.

US inflation now stands at 5pc, the fastest price growth since 2008, with month-on-month inflation at a 40-year high.

Rather than GDP, the economic variable we should be watching most closely is inflation. The UK’s consumer prices index grew 0.7pc during the year to March 2021, surging to 1.5pc in April and 2.1pc in May. Emerging inflation stems partly from domestic factors like the tightening labour market. But there are global forces too, including spiralling prices for commodities, raw materials and food.'

Edit: Goldman Sachs firmly belongs in the bull camp and sees oil staying between $75-80 per barrel over the next 18 months.

[mount teide] 06/7/2021 09:02

Worth re-reading the Overview of the Lemang Acquisition - Another excellent quality asset with a completely flexible production development timetable secured at Jadestone's offer price from a highly distressed seller needing short term cash.


Acquisition of Operated 90% Interest in Lemang PSC




At the time management stressed no equity raise to pay for this - $60m debt and $30m cash to pay for the field development over 2 years.

'Spangle' noted from the presentation at the time: 'Note that gas volumes shown are based on Gas Down To (GDT) measurements from existing logs. The gas water contact has not been intersected, therefore there is an as-yet undetermined volume upside that is not captured by the mean figure. A full P10-P50-P90 figure will be available by FID'


Some of my notes from the presentation webinar at the time of the announcement of the acquisition:

* PSC - No Decommissioning overhang

* Incremental Value beyond the base case is all accretive to assumptions

* Gas Sales: 80-90% Take or Pay Provision / Fixed Prices over life of field contract

* $126 million prior cost pools

* 90% Interest In Lemang PSC - $12m was Jadestone's Offer Price - the Distressed seller who needed cash in hand because of the low oil price had wanted considerably more for the asset 12 months ago(circa $50-75m from my research on the previous owners Sugih Energy ), but then experienced financial and operational challenges related to the collapse in the POO, that necessitated the raising of cash.(A 25% stake in this asset was sold for $130m in 2015)

* FID to First Gas: 24 months

* Situated in a region with one of the highest O&G success rates in the world; and adjacent to the Jabung block, which produces 53,000 boepd.

[mount teide] 06/7/2021 08:07

Good RNS

L2 opened 4 v 2 / 75p v 78p (then 3 x 79p and 6 x 80p)

[croasdalelfc] 06/7/2021 07:33

Re: Lemang :I make it around $32.5 a boe for ths gas . Obviously this is very much for 2024 . But would provide a plateau of ~$33m a year for the gas and a total of ~45m for gas, lng and condensate. It's $94m capex with very low Opex once online . Field life 14 years with a nice plateau for 6 years.

[kfr20] 05/7/2021 19:48

Crikey, just seen PMG's share price. A favourable tide really does lift all boats it seems. Quite happy for JSE to bob about quietly in the harbour safe in the knowledge it will soon catch a bid.

[mount teide] 05/7/2021 18:23

Brent hits $77 - Jadestone should be generating around $55/bbl operating clash flow on its combined production.

[mount teide] 05/7/2021 15:01

Euroclear's latest Stock on Loan(short) Report published today:

0.00% - PetroTal / (down from 0.16%)
0.05% - Jadestone Energy / (down from 0.19%)
0.45% - Savannah Energy / (down from 0.59%)
1.82% - Shell / (down from 3.84%)
1.86% - Pantheon Resources / (up from 1.79%)
1.96% - Enquest / (up from 1.86%)
3.73% - BP / (up from 3.62%)
4.64% - Cairn / (down from 4.79%)
8.74% - Touchstone Exp / (down from 8.79%)

[thedudie] 05/7/2021 12:02

Price seems a bit stuck so I bought a few more. Still stuck.

[fardels bear] 05/7/2021 09:03

I have a line below the share price on my spreadsheet..It just says WTF..

[croasdalelfc] 05/7/2021 08:26

-$76.4 Brent - close to $80 on current production - need a new line on the spreadsheet!

[loafingchard] 04/7/2021 21:00

Eleven percent of nothing worth reading

[fardels bear] 04/7/2021 20:40

Cor blimey. You wait two days and what do we get?.

[mount teide] 02/7/2021 18:09

11% - 'there is a total disconnect between the oil price and 99%+ of oil equities.'

Long market history shows it happens at the bottom of every recession stage of the oil market cycle or following a severe market shock.

At the 2000 oil market recession low the oil price took off but it was 18 months before the leaned down oil equity market survivors caught a bid, once the massive turnaround/surge in their operating cash flows and margins began getting reported to the market.

I suspect when the market gets sight of the oil industry's spectacular turnaround in performance when they start announcing their H1/2021 results, the bombed out sector is likely to generate a lot of interest/new money.

Since nearly all long term highly cyclical sectors return to their mean valuations over the longer term - I am very happy to continue accumulating high quality oil market equities at near record low valuations for the sector, considering the huge increase in cash flow and operating margin that many ultra low OPEX operators like Jadestone will be delivering at the current oil price.

AIMHO/DYOR

Far too many posters on Advfn who consider themselves 'investors' actually carry out research/analysis and invest more like short term traders!

[11_percent] 02/7/2021 15:37

A bit disappointing.........total disconnect between the oil price and the share price here.

[mount teide] 02/7/2021 13:41

L2: moved to 3 v 1 / 72p v 74p (rest between 75p and 80p)

[mount teide] 02/7/2021 09:29

Vincent Crude Oil - a second division Australian Heavy Sweet crude with an API of 19 and sulphur content of 0.55% (Stag: API:17 and 0.14% Sulphur) has been averaging close to a $7/bbl premium to dated Brent in H1/2021 according to data from S&P Global Platts. (The single Stag cargo reported to date in H1/2021 attracted a $13.88/bbl premium to dated Brent).

Asian traders say initial talks in the market suggest the latest Vincent crude oil cargo out for tender may achieve a price around a $9/bbl premium to dated Brent.

A sharp improvement in the demand outlook for Australian crude oil should also benefit the oil sales pricing premium to Brent of premium light sweet grades like Montara in H2/2021.


Australia's crude oil exports draw strength from improving Asian demand outlook - S&P Global Platts - 2 July 2021

Highlights

* Asia's Q3 oil demand to grow 1.9 million b/d over Q2: Platts Analytics

* Australia crude oil exports in April jump 38% from March

* Singapore top destination; sales to Thailand, India post robust growth

'Australia's crude oil exports are showing strong signs of revival as feedstock buyers in Asia snap up plentiful cargoes in the hope that the recovery in oil products demand, seen in many regional economies after a long period of feeble consumption, will be sustained.

The trend of rising exports was seen in April data that showed a sharp 28% month-on-month jump in the country's crude exports for the month, with analysts and traders expecting sentiment for forward-month loading cargoes to remain supported on the back of recovering fuel cracks.

Asia's oil demand in the first quarter grew by 1.2 million b/d from the previous quarter, but in Q2, it fell by nearly 1 million b/d from Q1 levels. S&P Global Platts Analytics expects oil demand in Asia to grow by about 1.9 million b/d in Q3, compared with Q2 levels.

"After a decline in Q2, Asia's quarter-to-quarter oil demand growth is poised to reach 1.9 million b/d in Q3 as a result of a rebound in India, continuous recovery in the rest of Asia and summer seasonal support. With regional crude oil production largely flat, the growth of demand will be matched largely by imported crudes to be used in refineries around Asia," said Kang Wu, head of global macro demand and Asia Analytics at Platts.

Preliminary data from Australia's Department of the Environment and Energy showed the country exported 9.35 million barrels in April, up 8% year on year. It was the largest monthly export since September 2020, when 10.04 million barrels were shipped.

Singapore was the leading destination for Australia's crude cargoes in April receiving 3.38 million barrels, up a marginal 1% from March levels of 3.34 million barrels and surging 76.1% from the April 2020 level of 1.92 million barrels.

In the first four months of 2021, Australia exported 9.26 million barrels to Singapore, compared with 8.01 million barrels for the same period last year, the data showed.

Australian crude exports to Malaysia rose to a 12-month high of 1.47 million barrels, up 165% month on month, the data showed. Crude sales to Thailand and India also saw robust year-on-year growth, rising more than 200% and more than 100%, respectively, the data showed.

Sentiment for forward months robust:

Market sources noted some recovery in demand fundamentals in Southeast Asia, amid the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines and lesser arbitrage barrels making inroads from the West.

A narrower Brent/WTI spread also results in lesser cargoes of US crude into Asia, with regional crude grades in Asia being preferred more by refiners, sources said.

The front-month NYMEX WTI vs ICE Brent futures spread was seen at minus $1.57/b at the Asian close on June 30. It was last narrow on Oct. 30, 2020, at minus $1.40/b, Platts data showed.

Sentiment for August-loading barrels remained supported amid recovering fuel oil cracks, even as the market may face some headwinds from an increase in supply, sources said.

Initial talks in the market indicated that there could be one 550,000-barrel cargo of Australia's heavy sweet Vincent crude sold for August loading at a premium of around $9/b to Platts Dated Brent crude assessments, FOB, according to traders.

Second-month marine fuel 0.5% swap crack versus Dubai swap averaged $8.43/b for June, up from $8/b for May, Platts data showed.

Although there was no spot availability of Pyrenees crude barrels for August loading, Australia's Santos was heard to be offering one 350,000-barrel cargo of heavy sweet Van Gogh crude for August 11-15 loading, according to sources.'

[mount teide] 01/7/2021 14:29

Oil Inventories Headed Lower Through Remainder of 2021 - Goehring & Rozencwajg

Non-OPEC+ production outside of the US is facing challenges similar to the situation with the US shales. In their most recent report, the IEA reports that non-OPEC+ production outside of the US was down 500,000 b/d in March compared with a year earlier.

The IEA projects production from this group will grow throughout the year and that by 4Q21, supply will be 700,000 b/d higher than a year earlier. We disagree with this assessment and expect production will fall short by as much as 400,000 b/d, if not more. Exploration outside of the shales has been extremely disappointing over the past decade and new project sanctions have barely been able to replace base declines. Given the capital budget curtailments around the world, we expect non-OPEC+ production outside of the US will continue to disappoint going forward.

Meanwhile, demand is normalizing following the COVID-19 disruptions last year. Although global demand remained 5 mm b/d below its pre-COVID level in 1Q21, it continues to trend in the right direction.

Some countries have now either regained or surpassed pre-COVID demand levels. In 1Q21, Chinese demand was likely 1.4 m b/d higher than the same period in 2019. Indian demand was likely within 10,000 b/d of its pre-COVID record as well. Therefore, the two largest sources of demand growth in recent years are now back to their pre-COVID levels.

The surge in Indian case data suggests demand may be impacted in 2Q21, but nevertheless the latent demand in the underlying economy appears very strong. This is exactly what we predicted would occur as a direct result of the S-curve. As we have explained in the past, when a country reaches a certain level of per-capita real GDP, their commodity intensity begins to move up dramatically. China and India are both firmly in their S-curve sweet spots and so it is no surprise they are the two countries that are most quickly regaining their pre-COVID demand peaks.

As the COVID-19 vaccination distribution continues to accelerate globally, we believe demand will rebound very sharply from here. Indications point to substantial pent-up demand for both leisure and business travel once restrictions are lifted. Government policies meanwhile have left savings rates at all-time highs.

Looking forward through the rest of this year, we believe oil market deficits will accelerate, causing inventories to plummet. The IEA currently estimates demand will average 97.6 mm b/d for the remainder of the year.

To the extent global vaccine distribution accelerates, we believe this figure could be too low by as much as 1.5 mm b/d. Non-OPEC+ production is expected to grow by 1.8 mm b/d, driven by nearly 1 mm b/d of growth from the US shales. We simply do not believe this is likely given our modeling of core exhaustion and productivity trends. Instead of growing by nearly 1 mm b/d from here, we believe total US production will continue to fall by as much as 400,000 b/d.

Based on their figures, the IEA expects the call on OPEC+ to average 44.6 mm b/d for the rest of the year compared with actual production of 41.3 m b/d in April. Assuming OPEC+ returns production according to their recently announced schedule, the IEA expects the market to remain in deficit by 1 m b/d for the remainder the year. Making the adjustments we described (increasing demand and decreasing US shale output), we believe the deficit will exceed 3.5 m b/d, causing inventories to approach record low levels. If our models continue to be correct, global oil markets should remain in deficit even if OPEC+ returns to producing at its all-time high levels.

As our readers know, we favor those companies with high-quality assets and sensible balance sheets that trade at favorable valuations. These companies should continue to generate material value as the cycle progresses. One metric we like to use is proved reserves per net debt adjusted share.

If a company has high quality assets, it should be able to grow its proved reserves per share; adjusting for net debt helps account for capital discipline. Looking at the universe of US E&P companies, we estimate the market cap-weighted group saw proved reserves per net debt adjusted share fall by 6% for the second consecutive year. Proved developed reserves (leaving aside future undrilled locations) fell by 4%.

Our position-weighted average group of companies on the other hand were able to grow proved reserves by 3% and proved developed reserves by 8%. We believe this is a quick way of confirming that we continue to identify the best remaining assets in the US shale basins.

We are entering into a new era in global oil markets. While most analysts are concerned about demand, the most important driver will likely be supply. After a decade of robust growth, the US shales are now exhausted, and incremental growth will be very difficult to achieve. Two decades ago, investors worried we were running out of oil while today’s investor worries that we have passed peak demand.

Although we cannot say for certain what the coming decade will bring, it will almost certainly defy conventional expectation. The US shales have been an extremely prolific source of supply but we firmly believe their best days are behind them. As this realization sinks in, we believe investors will focus on those companies with the remaining high-quality assets. We recommend investors maintain sizable investments in high quality E&P and oil service companies with a considerable earnings leverage to higher oil prices.'

Last sentence is highly likely to sum up the next few years of the currently extremely lowly rated O&G sector very well !

[mount teide] 01/7/2021 12:21

At the present $76/bbl Brent price, Jadestone's Stag production should be realising circa $90/bbl inclusive of the current IMO 2020 premium to Brent.

Marine Fuel Oil and Major Oil Benchmark pricing - Change compared to pricing on 9th December 2020 in brackets - (all prices rounded to nearest whole number)

$103 / (+28) - Marine Gas Oil - APAC Average (Up $8/bbl today)
$90 / (+30) - Jadestone / STAG - est $13.88/bbl premium to Brent
$79 / (+29) - Jadestone / Montara - est $2.5/bbl premium to Brent
$79 / (+29) - Jadestone / Peninsula Malaysia - est $2.5/bbl premium to Brent
$78 / (+28) - Maari - est $1.5/bbl premium to Brent
$76 / (+27) - Brent
$75 / (+28) - WTI
$67 / (+21) - High Sulphur Fuel Oil - APAC Average

At the current Brent price, 2021 guidance OPEX and IMO 2020 premiums to Brent, Jadestone should be realising in the region of circa $50-$55/bbl operating cash flow for its Stag, unhedged Montara and Maari production, and over $60/bbl for its Peninsula Malaysian production.

AIMHO/DYOR

[fardels bear] 01/7/2021 10:32

Still no div from HL..

[lord gnome] 01/7/2021 10:13

Divi has landed. Every little helps.

[croasdalelfc] 01/7/2021 09:18

H6 has spud - as seen with rig movement .Would expect an op update with renewed guidance in a few weeks once drill complete and they have more clarity with Maari and PM asset closure dates.