Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 22/6/2021 09:36

L2: moved to 1 v 1 / 68p v 69p (rest on 70p to 73p)

Now 2 v 3 / 68p v 70p (rest on 71p to 73p)

[mount teide] 22/6/2021 08:25

L2: 2 v 1 / 67p v 68p (rest on 70p to 73p)

[croasdalelfc] 21/6/2021 21:15

https://www.mbie.govt.nz/building-and-energy/energy-and-natural-resources/energy-consultations-and-reviews/review-of-the-crown-minerals-act-1991/The main legislative change that NZ govt want is to ensure decomm liability stays with old permit holder if they sell or transfer permit to new operator .The model they are working towards is very similar to the U.K.The good thing is they recognise that onerous costs could put off late field operators like JSE leading to early end of field life (and reduced taxes and royalties) .It seems we just have to see it through at the speed of the NZ parliamentary process.

[mount teide] 20/6/2021 12:57

Most International dry bulk shipping Lines are now operating at/close to maximum fleet capacity - this has driven up the cost (Baltic Dry Index) of chartering ships and moving commodities more than 7 fold during the last 12 months.

Likewise, a huge surge in demand for shipping is being seen to service the transportation of finished goods in containers - where all time record charter rates and freight rates are now also being experienced.

This has seen the demand for ship's low sulphur(ISO 2020 Compliant) fuel oil bounce back to pre pandemic levels - driving up the average global price of Marine Gas oil and VLSFO to close to $100/bbl and $88/bbl respectively.

Shipping disruption: 'We're doing our best - but this is crippling'

[mount teide] 18/6/2021 06:31

Natural Resource Market Insights - Goehring and Rozencwajg

What a Difference a Year Makes (in Oil) - 06/ 15/ 2021

[croasdalelfc] 17/6/2021 08:56

We have to pay another $3m to SapuraOMV if 2021 average is $65 or greater - bummer ;) At $65 plus $2 premium revenue for 2021 will be ~$140m (90% oil 10% gas) for a $12m outlay - bummer ;)

[mount teide] 16/6/2021 22:55

$100 Oil Predictions Soar As Analysts Warn Of Supply Crisis - Oilprice.com

' “Incredible demand,” inflation, and shareholder pressure on oil super-majors to drastically cut emissions could lead to an oil crisis within three years, with very high oil and gasoline prices, David Tawil, president of Maglan Capital, told Fox Business on Wednesday.

Tawil has been very bullish on oil for some time, and thinks that the prices could hit $100 per barrel soon.

In the near term, oil prices have more room to rise, both from inflationary standpoint but also from demand standpoint, he told Fox Business.

Oil prices are set to rise “consistently and considerably now into the end of the year,” Tawil said.

Moreover, supply from the oil supermajors could be also coming off, due to shareholder and environmental pressure. In the United States, the Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) concerns, as well as the U.S. Administration’;s push toward renewables and away from fossil fuels, would also contribute to lower supply and lead to a supply crunch in coming years, according to Maglan Capital’s Tawil.

The world’s largest independent commodity traders are also bullish on oil, not ruling out $100 oil.

Although oil may not be headed to a new supercycle, prices still have room to rise from current levels because of a strong demand rebound and expected tightness in supply, top executives at Trafigura, Vitol, and Glencore said at the FT Commodities Global Summit earlier this week.

There is a chance for $100 oil, Trafigura’s CEO Jeremy Weir said, adding “You need higher prices to incentivize… and also maybe to build on the cost of carbon in the future as well. You also need to attract capital in the business.”

“Higher from here” for the next six months, Glencore's Head of Oil Marketing, Alex Sanna, told the same event.

Russell Hardy, CEO at the world's biggest independent oil trader Vitol, also said that $100 per barrel oil is "of course a possibility," but warned the overenthusiastic bulls that "we're in a slightly artificial market at the moment," as the OPEC+ group still has around 5.5 million barrels per day (bpd) to bring back to the market, by April 2022 per current plans.'

[mount teide] 16/6/2021 22:54

Energy Transition Fad Will Send Oil Sky High - Oilprice.com today

'Ironically, the wave of ESG investing in global energy markets may lead to much higher oil prices as a serious lack of capital expenditure on new fossil fuels dries up just as demand for crude continues to grow

Pressure from investors, tighter emissions regulation from governments, and public protests against their business have become more or less the new normal for oil companies. What the world—or at least the most affluent parts of it—seem to want from the oil industry is to stop being the oil industry.

Many investors are buying into this pressure. ESG investing is all the rage, and sustainable ETFs are popping up like mushrooms after a rain. But some investors are taking a different approach. They are betting on oil. Because what many in the pressure camp seem to underestimate is the fact that the supply of oil is not the only element of the oil equation.

“Imagine Shell decided to stop selling petrol and diesel today,” the supermajor’s CEO Ben van Beurden wrote in a LinkedIn post earlier this month. “This would certainly cut Shell’s carbon emissions. But it would not help the world one bit. Demand for fuel would not change. People would fill up their cars and delivery trucks at other service stations.”

Van Beurden was commenting on a Dutch court’s ruling that environmentalists hailed as a landmark decision, ordering Shell to reduce its emissions footprint by 45 percent from 2019 levels by 2030.

The ruling effectively requires that Shell shrinks its business, meaning it requires one company to work against itself. For any other industry, this would have been unthinkable. But not for Big Oil, which has been targeted as the single party responsible for the rising greenhouse gas emissions produced by humankind. Again, the users of the emission-generating products are being either wilfully ignored or named victims, misled by Big Oil about the harm their products do.

The truth, as unpalatable as it is for many in the green transition corner, is that the world still runs on oil. Demand for oil has been rising for decades as our energy needs grow with the global population. The use of fossil fuels is also on a continual rise despite—this is important—the boom in renewable energy capacity installations over the past decade. According to a report by a renewable energy policy network REN21, the share of coal, oil, and gas in the world’s energy mix has not changed over the past decade.

So, oil demand is still on the rise, but pressure on the companies that extract oil is growing to the point where these companies are being forced to reduce their spending on future production. There is only one way such a situation could end, and it is with much higher oil prices as demand remains robust. No wonder, then, that some investors are expanding their exposure to oil, as per a Wall Street Journal report from earlier this month.
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The report notes data from Wood Mackenzie that says investments in oil production dropped to $330 billion last year. That’s less than half of what was spent on oil in 2014 when Brent was trading well above $100 per barrel. The pandemic certainly had a lot to do with this. But so did the renewed push for a more renewable energy future. Lower investments in oil mean lower production going forward. This is good from an energy transition perspective but not from an oil demand perspective. And it is a long-term problem.

Back in May, Rystad Energy wrote that the proven reserves of Big Oil are falling at a drastic rate: last year, the group lost—meaning failed to replace with new discoveries—15 percent of its reserves. Its existing reserves could be depleted within 15 years. The world will not be off oil by then.

The potentially fatal flaw in the energy transition plan is that it appears to substitute one part of the world for the whole world. Granted, there is a lot of talk about helping developing nations to wean themselves off fossil fuel and this talk even includes money but that’s as far as it goes. As Oilprice commentator Syed Rizvi noted in a recent post, there are more than a billion people around the world with no access to electricity at all. Fossil fuels are for them the only source of energy.

This is likely to continue to be the case for quite a while, because one other thing the energy transition proponents seem to forget is that even renewable energy is a business—and businesses require profits. Africa is a case in point: the continent has abundant solar and wind resources and yet these are not being harnessed. The reason: there are not enough paying customers for the future solar and wind farms.

Investment celebrity Richard Bernstein earlier this week said traders were buying bitcoin in a bear market and ignoring oil in a bull market. Indeed, the latest trends in trading and investing seem to follow fads rather than logic.

“We’ve got this major bull market going on in commodities, and all people are saying is that it doesn’t matter,” Bernstein said, as quoted by CNBC.

What this shows is a major divide between trader sentiments, policies, and reality. Some traders and politicians seem to inhabit a parallel world in which bitcoin will always be a good investment even when its price is falling off a cliff, and the green energy transition is absolutely unavoidable. In the real world, bitcoin has a considerable emissions footprint and hundreds of millions of people rely on fossil fuels for their energy needs and will continue to rely on it because they can’t afford renewable energy.'

[11_percent] 16/6/2021 10:43

Its that there is a total disconnect between JSE and the price of oil.

[fardels bear] 16/6/2021 09:18

You've heard the expression kiss of death?

[11_percent] 16/6/2021 09:12

Oil up 50% since start of year.

[pro_s2009] 16/6/2021 04:54

Summer time blues........ St Ledgers day only 3 months away.

[11_percent] 15/6/2021 14:27

Its very strange that a share price goes level, sideways.

[sporazene2] 15/6/2021 13:00

lol. some more buyers required..

[mount teide] 14/6/2021 10:50

Jadestone's specialist second phase operator MO described in detail by Paul Blakeley at an investor presentation, along with an indication of the Field Life of Montara:


Starts around 30mins 37secs

Montara Field Life:

"We project on our 2P reserves around 2031/32 - but we have already identified some infill locations(recently increased to 6) that are not part of the P2 reserves, so maybe 2035.

And we have a lot of gas which we currently assume has no value - Montara is basically an oil rim under a very large gas cap(circa 0.5 trillion cf). Shell announced recently the development of a nearby gas field(closer than our Birds fields) called Crux and they're looking for gas into their infrastructure, which is great for us as it will add value and extend the field life further"

[mount teide] 13/6/2021 08:58

Paul Blakeley worth his salary?

The two high performing activist US hedge funds who jointly hold a third of the Jadestone stock certainly think so - they headhunted Paul Blakeley to run Jadestone Energy on the strength of his performance at Talisman Energy North Sea and then Talisman SE Asia - two specialist second phase O&G companies started from scratch that subsequently went on to be sold for circa $6bn and $8bn respectively.

The outstanding circa 30% CAGR share price performance achieved by Jadestone Energy since the September 2018 IPO, while the overwhelming majority of the rest of the O&G market has delivered strongly negative returns, suggests Jadestone's shareholders should be very pleased with the performance of Paul Blakeley and his high quality team, mostly brought over from Talisman Energy.

AIMHO/DYOR

[mount teide] 13/6/2021 08:33

Macro picture for commodity / shipping demand suggests the post Covid-19 global economic recovery is well underway and accelerating.

In 2020, industrial commodity buyers/consumers were so keen to take advantage of cheap commodity pricing to build up inventories, they have since driven up the cost of shipping commodities around the world by over 700% in 12 months(Baltic Dry Index is up from 407 to 2,857).

Many buyers/consumers of raw commodities took advantage of pricing temporarily weakened in early 2020 by the impact of Covid-19 and the Chinese/US trade war by importing record tonnages of many industrial commodities like copper and oil - this saw commodity and shipping pricing quickly bottom and then go on to surge into 2021 as demand strongly bounced back close and in some cases to beyond pre pandemic levels.

Demand for most industrial commodities, shipping and port services has been growing at an average annual rate of 2.0% to 3.5% per year for the last 40 years.

Considering the current and projected pace of global population growth and the huge urbanisation and infrastructure modernisation and electrification programs of the large population nations of China, India and SE Asia, and the transport and infrastructure electrification programs of the West......it would take a brave man to bet against the long term rate of growth in demand for most commodities slowing over the next few decades.

Data Source; Lloyd's List

[mount teide] 13/6/2021 07:53

Vermillion Energy - Canada's 'Talisman Energy' - floated at 30c circa 25 years ago as a specialist second phase O&G field operator - and like Talisman, a few years later started paying dividends.

Vermillion has paid out over $40 per share in dividends since 2003 (130 fold) while also growing the share price 35 fold (been as high as 250 fold at the 2015 oil market peak), mostly through acquisition. Currently paying 23c a MONTH dividend.

Market Cap/EV today is about half of what JSE management created with Talisman.

[mount teide] 13/6/2021 07:32

Stag has a lower sulphur content than any of the Australian heavy sweet grades currently commanding the highest premiums (circa $14/bbl - 20% premium to dated Brent) from marine fuel brokers ...... Montara and Maari are light, sweet, ultra low sulphur grades in high demand for blending with heavy sweet crudes to produce IMO 2020 compliant marine fuels and, in the production of high grade aviation and transport fuels:

0.14% Sulphur / 18.5% API - STAG
0.19% Sulphur / 19.3% API - PYRENEES
0.37% Sulphur / 17.4% API - VINCENT
0.37% Sulphur / 18.5% API - VAN GOGH

0.05% Sulphur / 35.1% API - MONTARA
0.09% Sulphur / 34.6% API - MAARI

[buffythebuffoon] 12/6/2021 22:32

Was Amryt fine?

Prior to that Fastnet O&G

Buffy