Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[croasdalelfc] 18/8/2021 12:04

The regulator and the govt are different entities through one governs the other.Like OGA and U.K. govt.It's a case of intransigence by NZ govt - they won't approve operatorship transfer until legislation is in place. JSE have already provided everything the regulator needs.The progress of the Act of Parliament is slow up until the second reading and then will speed up (going on past legislation) https://www.parliament.nz/en/pb/bills-and-laws/bills-proposed-laws/document/BILL_111853/crown-minerals-decommissioning-and-other-matters-amendment

[11_percent] 18/8/2021 11:41

Croasdalelfc,

You seem to be the guy with the finger on the pulse regarding the NZ Gov legislation and the transfer of Maari to JSE.

Can you tell me what the backstop date for the transfer is assuming we have to wait for the NZ Gov to pass the legislation and then JSE to comply with it.

Cheers.

[11_percent] 18/8/2021 09:32

RSI of 9 is nus for his share......so, bought a few more.

It has a habit going below 30 RSI.....and bouncing.......done it a few times.

[croasdalelfc] 18/8/2021 09:12

I've set out my thoughts on production and revenue for 2021 post todays update:9934 bopd core H1 182 days $121.1m9000 bopd core H2 182 days $116.3m3000 bopd H6 Barrels 90 days $20.3m2000 bopd Skua workovers 60 days $9.0m5400 bopd PM Oil 152 days $61.6m600 boepd PM gas 152 days $2.7mTotal Barrels = 4.73M (12.9kbopd) $331.0mIve added a $2 premium to all barrels. H1 based on $65 Brent averageH2 based on $69 Brent averageThe above is 3.8m Montara and Stag barrels which is at upper end of guidanceThe exact amount depends on liftings but they had the scope to delay liftings until a better oil price was reached.NB record revenue for JSE was in 2019 at 4.5m barrels and ~$337mThey will exit 2021 with :Record Operating Cash flow ~ $52 a barrel at $70 oilRecord Cash ~ $80/100mRecord Production ~ 20kbopd

[thedudie] 18/8/2021 08:06

No fireworks ... They have flagged some upside at PM and expectation seems close to 20000boepd who knows but hopefully sometime early next year. That would be a doubling of 1st half production. Cash flow must be huge and even with the increased spend their cash reserves must be accelerating.

Be good to see what dividend they declare - they say "to maintain and grow dividends in line with underlying cashflow generation"

The underlying cashflow must be significantly higher than last year when they still declared the maiden dividend based on a Covid disrupted first half. A significant hike looks due.

All very solid.

Have been adding TXP to my portfolio in the last few days - hoping my patience there (before buying) and here and at SQZ (while holding) will be rewarded.

[lord gnome] 18/8/2021 07:41

Maari - darned autocorrect strikes again

[lord gnome] 18/8/2021 07:40

A solid enough update to my untrained eyes with good developments to look forward to. Mari will land in its own good time when the NZ government is ready to move. 2022 is a more realistic completion expectation. No harm at all long term but it does affect us in the short term and that is probably why the market will mark them down today.

[croasdalelfc] 18/8/2021 07:34

Also : 6000boepd over 153 days for PM would give 2515 annualised over a year .7000 boepd from PM over 153 days would give 2934 annualised over a year. So PM must be expected to out perform in the next few months

[croasdalelfc] 18/8/2021 07:31

My thoughts: The sidetrack explains the delayed rig movement . Rig watch ongoing Extra capex as a result .Maari pulled from guidance as expected . In my opinion it won't complete until Feb/March 2022 at the earliest . Select committee submissions close tomorrow. 2nd reading of bill due November.Surprised they didn't move the long stop date - as they will need to RNS again before end August.Good news on H1 production. 9934 b/d is better than my forecast 9500.Also guidance now includes 2500/3000 boepd from PM averaged across year. 2500 was my estimate . 3000 would imply a lot of extra production.

[mount teide] 17/8/2021 15:46

News on the Montara Infill well should be imminent and is forecast to add circa 3,100 bopd of oil production.

At today's Brent price, 2021 guidance OPEX and latest IMO 2020 premiums to Brent, Jadestone should be realising circa $50/bbl operating cash flow for its Stag and unhedged Montara production, and circa $55/bbl for its Peninsula Malaysian production.

With current total production of circa 17,000 bopd, likely increasing to 20,000+ bopd on first oil from the Montara Infill Well, Jadestone could soon see operating cash flow rise from the current circa $325m/year to circa $385m/yr, with the potential to increase further to circa $450m/year on completion of the Maari acquisition - (assumptions: $70 Brent and 2021 OPEX guidance (which is expected to be materially lower by year end - at an average of sub $20/bbl according to management forecasts).

[lord gnome] 17/8/2021 10:54

No chance of completion by the end of the month. Deadline will be extended again and again. Rinse and repeat until sometime next year.

[squareloss] 17/8/2021 10:27

This is treading water waiting for the Maari news, what do folk think re the August 31 backstop date, we’re getting close to that so presumably they have to say something next week if the can is getting kicked down the road again?

[11_percent] 13/8/2021 15:14

It my not trade in line with the oil price.....but it aint volatile.

[mount teide] 10/8/2021 19:47

100,000 put on the BID at 76p in the closing auction.

[birotop] 10/8/2021 12:05

That many!!

[fanshaw] 10/8/2021 11:46

The amount of shares traded so far today are worth a Caravan holiday at Skegness for a Week.

[mount teide] 09/8/2021 18:19

At today's $69/bbl Brent price, Jadestone's Stag production should be realising circa $83/bbl inclusive of the most recent IMO 2020 price premium to Brent.

Marine Fuel Oil and Major Oil Benchmark pricing - Change compared to pricing on 9th December 2020 in brackets - (all prices rounded to nearest whole number)

$101 / (+26) - Marine Gas Oil - APAC Average
$88 / (+21) - VLSFO - APAC Average
$82 / (+22) - Jadestone / STAG - $13.88/bbl latest premium to Brent
$72 / (+22) - Jadestone / Montara - est $2.5/bbl premium to Brent
$72 / (+22) - Jadestone / Peninsula Malaysia - est $2.5/bbl premium to Brent
$71 / (+20) - Maari - est $1.5/bbl premium to Brent
$69 / (+20) - Brent
$66 / (+19) - WTI
$66 / (+20) - High Sulphur Fuel Oil - APAC Average

At today's Brent price, 2021 guidance OPEX and latest IMO 2020 premiums to Brent, Jadestone should be realising circa $50/bbl operating cash flow for its Stag and unhedged Montara production, and circa $55/bbl for its Peninsula Malaysian production.

With a current total production of circa 17,000 bopd, Jadestone should currently be realising circa $325m/yr of annual operating cash flow, with the potential to increase to circa $390m/year on completion of the Maari acquisition.

AIMHO/DYOR

[bamboo2] 09/8/2021 09:03

76 to buy 76 to sell!

Added 10k as see pretty solid support at 75

Possible turn showing here 6-9/8/2021
Brent chart shows turn tomorrow. gla

PS, Russ, also a low turn possible on TXP today, but needs to trade lower than Fridays low of 85 to confirm.

[mount teide] 05/8/2021 09:14

Malaysian Peninsula Asset Acquisition

'The Malaysian Assets add immediate cash flow of circa 6,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day of low operating cost production, on a net working interest basis, of which over 90% is oil. The Assets increased Jadestone's 2P reserves by 34%, adding 12.5 million barrels oil equivalent of net working interest 2P reserves, based on management's best estimate 2P reserves production profile.

Inclusive of agreed adjustments, the Company's net consideration for the assets actually produced a net cash receipt of circa US$9.2 million.'


At the current Brent price and $9m asset headline price(deal effective from 1/1/2021, following which Brent has risen by circa $25/bbl), Jadestone generates sufficient operating cash flow to purchase the Malaysian Peninsula assets outright every 28 days, assuming the current $18/bbl average OPEX across the assets.


Outlook Statement from recently published 2020 Annual Report:

'Looking forward, having successfully navigated one of the toughest years our industry has ever experienced, we are now very well positioned to re-instate growth through capital deployed into our current assets, drilling in Australia and moving the gas developments forwards, as well as the potential to add more assets to our portfolio through inorganic opportunities.

This is reinforced by the 2021 guidance which shows strong growth in the second half, and the recent announcement of the acquisition of a collection of assets offshore Peninsular Malaysia. The acquisition is an excellent fit with our capabilities and our strategy, and provides a material and immediate uplift in both production and reserves, together with a strong platform to grow further in Malaysia.

With our strong balance sheet and our reputation as a quality counterparty of choice, we are more upbeat than ever on the potential to continue adding value through acquisitions.'

[fardels bear] 04/8/2021 19:30

Methinks this is being subtly played to bore the PI into selling. I don't think it'll work.

[magicmayhem] 04/8/2021 16:00

10k buy showing as a sell

[mount teide] 04/8/2021 15:25

Euroclear's July Stock on Loan(short) Report published today:

Selected O&G Sector Company Analysis

0.04% - Jadestone Energy / (down from 0.05%)

0.28% - PetroTal / (up from 0.00%)

0.43% - Savannah Energy / (down from 0.45%)

1.76% - Shell / (down from 1.82%)

2.10% - Pantheon Resources / (up from 1.86%)

3.12% - Enquest / (up from 1.96%)

3.42% - BP / (down from 3.73%)

5.30% - Cairn / (up from 4.64%)

8.49% - Touchstone Exp / (down from 8.74%)

[blueeyes13] 04/8/2021 11:32

I think JSE really need to improve their PR with investors big and small. Volume so low, not late that many investors are even aware of the company and its amazing value and opportunities. I'm a holder in PXC where management were poor at comma but have improved on this area considerably after feedback from shareholders. There's an excellent Telegram group which is followed by the board.