Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[croasdalelfc] 27/7/2021 12:04

The partners at Maari have about 107k barrels in storage on FPSO waiting to be sold . 74300 would be JSE share @ current Brent plus premium it's worth $5.7m

[11_percent] 27/7/2021 10:19

Hi Croasdalelfc,

You said in post 5955....."Also $5m oil still to be sold in inventory."


Not sure what you mean.....can you elaborate.

Cheers.

[croasdalelfc] 27/7/2021 10:18

The real deal maker is Michael Horn - Executive Vice President - with obviously Dan Young and Henning Hoyland assessing the finance and subsurface - with PB leading the lot it's an impressive team.PB is getting on a bit - late 60s - I wouldn't be surprised if he retired after the next big acquisition. And wouldn't be surprised if Mike Horn was his successor. .Lisa Stewart's addition to the team shouldn't be underestimated as well

[croasdalelfc] 27/7/2021 09:19

A conversion of a well to water injector was part of JSE 2P case for Maari Moki field . From CMD in 2020 . To lift RF to 27% . .The 3P case is 30-35% or another 12m barrels .It seems the team at New Plymouth are influencing decisions by the partners.

[croasdalelfc] 27/7/2021 06:52

https://hzn2.live.irmau.com/site/PDF/cab13dc9-9883-4163-afbc-28fb9f6bd747/QuarterlyActivitiesReport

[croasdalelfc] 27/7/2021 06:51

Mixed news from Maari - MR6 well still has sand problems post workover and has been temporarily shut in. Desander option considered . MR2 which was already shut in is being converted to water injector Average production net to JSE for the Q was 3642 bopd and revenue $23.3m . Opex also up but understandable give the workover costs .The good news: Average realised price in the Q was really good at $75.84 barrel. That is a like a $6/7 premium to Brent . The probable reason is they had a single lifting late in the Q at high Brent prices and the premium is still $2/3Also $5m oil still to be sold in inventory.

[mount teide] 26/7/2021 19:36

Header updated with links to Latest Results and most recent Presentations, Major Shareholders as of 7 July 2021, Assets/P2 Reserves as of 31 Dec 2020, and management estimates of current production.

[spangle93] 26/7/2021 13:47

Dcarn, re:5938

I would suggest strongly that JSE is only interested in undervalued, poorly run assets with production and exploration/add-on upside, where they have the majority or 100% equity, and are operators, so that they can implement what they justifiably believe are more efficient operations (and lower corporate cost base), and have full control of future capital phasing and demands.

So I don't think they'd be strong contenders to acquire a non-operated asset portfolio

[mount teide] 26/7/2021 13:18

Value gap opens as oil price recovers but stocks stay down - Aussie Small Caps/July 2021


' “Oil, oil and more oil,” sounds like an investment tip from 100 years ago and not last week, but that’s what Jeff Currie is advising and he’s the commodity guru at the world’s leading investment bank, Goldman Sachs.

Currie’s love of oil is hardly surprising, even if it is politically incorrect at a time of energy transition and the rise of renewable energy and battery metals, which are supposed to replace old energy, especially oil and coal.

However, in a remarkable flashback to an earlier era, oil and coal have been star performers since the start of the year rising by 45% and 130% respectively.

If oil is staging a comeback, as some professionals such as Currie believe is the case, then it becomes hard to ignore the value gap opening between the commodity price and most oil share prices.....

....Since January, oil (as measured by Brent-quality crude) has risen to a three-year high of US$75/bbl (A$99/bbl) while thermal coal is at a 10-year high of US$125 a tonne (A$166/t).

Currie reckons the global economy is emerging so rapidly from the Covid slowdown that oil consumption has risen from 95 million barrels per day to 97MMbpd in just a few weeks with an oil glut created during the slowdown being quickly drained........

.....Currie reckons oil will hit US$80/bbl (A$106/bbl), but there is also talk in the market of US$100/bbl (A$133/bbl) possible by Christmas, especially if OPEC is miserly with its proposed supply increase or demand continues to rise quickly – or both.'

[lord gnome] 26/7/2021 12:39

Looks like our penny a day rise will continue then. No complaints from me.

[mount teide] 26/7/2021 12:19

L2: moved to 3 v 1 / 79p v 80p (rest between 81p and 89p)

As seen last week, 10,000 NMS Buys at the full book price are continuing to push the MM's off the Offer.

[bamboo2] 26/7/2021 10:00

Price sailed on through last possible turn on JSE chart.
Oil price much stronger than anticipated, so been buying back, but have missed out on approx 4p.

[mount teide] 26/7/2021 09:34

L2: Opened 1 v 3 / 79p v 80p

Now: 2 v 2 / 79p v 80p (rest between 81p and 89p)

[mount teide] 26/7/2021 00:10

Montara Acquisition - Contingent Liabilities: $160 million as of 28th September 2018

Latest Position:

$60 million of considerations have since expired without triggering a payment event.

$20 million of consideration has the potential to be triggered in 2021/2 - should the first Montara infill well average more than 4,110 bopd during the first 12 months of commercial operation. (It is expected to average 3,100 bopd)

$80 million of further considerations are extremely unlikely, if at all, to occur before 2030:
These are the $30 million consideration should the commercial development of the 0.5 TCF Montara gas cap proceed(possibly via a potential tie back to the nearby, proposed Shell Crux Gas Field) and, the $50 million consideration for 'Any investment decision to approve a project development plan to proceed with the development or developments of the Montara Assets where such development has 2P reserves greater than 15.0 MMbbls.'

[king suarez] 25/7/2021 16:52

Might not be a bad time for the company to hedge a little more production?

[mount teide] 25/7/2021 14:06

Zeus - exactly.

Investment downside protection - One of many attractions of an investment in Jadestone Energy for us is the fact that even at $20-25/bbl Brent last April, the company was still cash flow positive and paying a maiden dividend, while Shell cut its dividend for the first time in over 70 years and by a whopping circa 72%.

[zeusfurla] 25/7/2021 11:06

MT Sometimes you have to read something twice to take it in - $50-55 op cash flow/barrel - to think where we were just over a year ago when Brent itself was around half that level. What an opportunity.

[mount teide] 25/7/2021 10:44

Marine Gas Oil(has a production specification very similar to diesel) spiked $8/bbl this week, principally due to growing supply constraints from refinery production being increasingly switched to low sulphur diesel to take advantage of surging demand and higher profit margins.

Marine Fuel Oil and Major Oil Benchmark pricing - Change compared to pricing on 9th December 2020 in brackets - (all prices rounded to nearest whole number)

$110 / (+35) - Marine Gas Oil - APAC Average
$90 / (+30) - VLSFO - APAC Average (after adjustment for Specific Gravity)
$88 / (+29) - Jadestone / STAG - est $13.88/bbl premium to Brent
$77 / (+27) - Jadestone / Montara - est $2.5/bbl premium to Brent
$77 / (+27) - Jadestone / Peninsula Malaysia - est $2.5/bbl premium to Brent
$76 / (+26) - Maari - est $1.5/bbl premium to Brent
$74 / (+25) - Brent
$72 / (+25) - WTI
$69 / (+23) - High Sulphur Fuel Oil - APAC Average

At the current Brent price, 2021 guidance OPEX and IMO 2020 premiums to Brent, Jadestone should be realising in the region of circa $50-$55/bbl operating cash flow for its combined Stag and unhedged Montara production, a similar level for its Maari production, and circa $60/bbl for the Peninsula Malaysian production.

AIMHO/DYOR

[fardels bear] 25/7/2021 09:04

By the time one gets to the end of July, predicting an average brent price for THIS year doesn't exactly require the talents of an A Star Analyst. Does it?Gizza job.. I can do that..

[zeusfurla] 24/7/2021 09:20

MT In addition to your comments, we all know that Paul is one of the best deal-makers around and we are in a buyers market and have cash available. Capital discipline in the use of available cash has been exceptional with restraint used in waiting for the best deals available sometimes from distressed sellers. I would expect further value-adding acquisitions to appear this year and next which would most likely increase the potential value of each share for shareholders above the levels you suggest.

A word of caution - dangerous to get too carried away - there are always risks.

[mount teide] 24/7/2021 08:48

be13 - not suggesting 106p is my end of Sept 2022 target ..... although, when taking into consideration the unprecedented hammering the O&G sector has experienced since 2018, a 34% CAGR share price performance over 4 years would nevertheless be a remarkable achievement.

The lowly current valuation relative to NAV and record low valuations across the sector, when taken together with the prospect over the next 5 months of a near doubling of production and sub $20/bbl OPEX, suggests that in a $70 Brent world, a 150p share price should not only be a realistic 12 month target( equivalent to a circa 45% CAGR post IPO), but, even £2.17 by Sept 2023(equivalent to a 5 year CAGR of 45%) should look potentially achievable too.

AIMHO/DYOR

"Extremely Disconnected" Energy Stocks Face Explosive Short Squeeze: JPM - Zero Hegde

[blueeyes13] 23/7/2021 15:10

Great returns CAGR from IPO but I think I probably speak for a lot here in that I'd feel 106 is the minimum id like it to be in 12 months time. I feel a big 12 months for JSE coming up!! :-)

[mount teide] 23/7/2021 12:46

Since the September 2018 London IPO Jadestone has achieved a circa 34% CAGR share price performance, while the overwhelming majority of the rest of the O&G market has delivered negative returns.

For Jadestone to continue this 34% CAGR performance for a fourth year the share price would need to reach 106p by September 2022.