Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[buffythebuffoon] 28/2/2021 15:12

Why do you say that LG?

Buffy

[lord gnome] 28/2/2021 14:55

Thanks Buffy. I take it that I am not on your trusted list :-)

[fardels bear] 28/2/2021 13:11

Oh no, she comes from a long line of Sergeant Majors and Corporals, I feel..

[buffythebuffoon] 28/2/2021 11:50

Could be worse. I would usually have expected a higher rank; such as Sergeant-Major.

MTs wife and a handful of others excepted, of course. :^}

EDIT My autistic nephew (he must be..) said it depends on whether the corporal was a soldier rank or an officer rank!

Apologies to Mrs FB if the latter.




Buffy

[fardels bear] 28/2/2021 10:53

Not read it yet, for my sins it's been a great weekend for chopping wood and moving the fruit bushes from one side of the garden to the other. Feel like I'm in the army. Wife's a born corporal.

[buffythebuffoon] 28/2/2021 10:50

“ Did I read somewhere that JSE board intends to move the company’s domicile from Canada to London shortly?”

I don’t rely on comments on bulletin boards, except for a small handful of posters who are on my trusted list.

I prefer to get my information from the company.

They have announced this, and its in their presentation for the 2021 guidance.

Buffy

[lord gnome] 28/2/2021 10:42

You did indeed. Goodbye to any withholding tax issues on dividends.

[fardels bear] 28/2/2021 10:09

Did I read somewhere that JSE board intends to move the company's domicile from Canada to London shortly?

[mount teide] 28/2/2021 00:13

This week Lloyds's List reported that the world shipping fleet had crossed the 100,000 vessel mark for the first time.

The cross-segment ClarkSea Shipping Index rose 3% week on week to $18,686/day, up by 23% from the year end level, and outside of the two recent periods of exceptionally strong tanker markets (Q4 2019 and Mar-Apr 2020), it is the highest level since mid-2010.

The Clarksea Index acts as the heart rate monitor of the global shipping industry, covering all the main sectors. As the name suggests, the Index is produced by Clarkson Shipping Research, and shows the average earnings in $/day of the whole fleet.

To do this it takes into account the average earnings each week of VLCCs, Suezmax and Aframax in the Tanker sector. In the Dry Bulk sector it includes the average earnings of Capesize, Panamax, Handymax and Handysize. The Liner sector is represented by Containerships and the Gas sector by VLGCs. The Index is weighted by the number of ships in each of the sectors.

According to Market Study Report LLC, the global shipping fuel industry amassed a valuation of USD 121 billion in 2019 and is forecast to register a yearly growth rate of 4.1% over 2020-2027.

The Asia Pacific shipping market is expected to grow the fastest over the forecast timeframe, largely due to the rapid growth in inter-regional trade.

[buffythebuffoon] 27/2/2021 17:55

Hi MT, you’ve pretty much summed up my view.

If all my wealth had to be in one company it would also be JSE, but I’m fairly sure TXP in a 2-3 year timeframe will produce a greater return and will be sold by the end of that period at the latest.

SAVE, I agree will produce the highest return overall. Niger alone will see to that, but how much, and how quickly, depends on how we fund and schedule a programme there. I just hope AK sticks to buying producing assets in Nigeria.

Of course, how much we make from the new superport (my words) is totally unknown, but it could provide a huge kicker.

I’m thinking of selling my grannies to increase my positions. The only problem is I don’t where one is buried nor the other’s ashes sprinkled.

Apologies to anyone eating while reading this. You really shouldn’t though; accidents will happen.

Buffy

[fardels bear] 27/2/2021 13:14

It wasn't my worst investment decision, MT. over the years I've made some howlers which is why I stick to a very small portfolio of low risk companies with as much downside protection as possible. JSE is my largest holding and if it makes it to two quid it'll see me right until I pop my clogs. Failing that there's always equity release and sod the grasping nephews and nieces.

[mount teide] 27/2/2021 10:49

FB - 'I got bored with txp and sold at 14p.'

Admire your fortitude - it takes a brave man to admit he walked away from a subsequent circa 13 bagger within barely a year!

If its any solice....you were in good Company, one modest sized Canadian Hedge Fund sold out of a 4-5% position at a similar time at around 14p - only to watch the share price go on to reach 175p within 15 months - ouch!

[mount teide] 27/2/2021 10:40

Buffy..........relative to investment risk......I see JSE as my O&G sector banker.....its an ultra high cash flow/bbl production business at $65 Brent, run by an outstanding management who have demonstrated to the sector for well over two decades they're virtually peerless at generating capital growth as specialist second phase O&G field acquirers, operators and developers.

I have seven figures holdings in TXP, JSE, SAVE and PTAL. If forced to hold only one for the next 5 years - it would be JSE, since i believe it would offer, for my risk appetite, the best combination of low risk upside potential and outstanding downside protection for a single all-in O&G sector holding.

In 2020, the JSE management demonstrated what they can do in an oil market with record low prices - at $65 Brent, inclusive of the IMO 2020 premium, JSE generates cash flow per barrel equivalent to what much of the O&G industry were generating when Brent was averaging over $100/bbl between 2010-2014.

With production being ramped up during 2021, and a year end production exit rate of perhaps 17-18,000 bopd(assuming Maari completes as expected); a "high $teen/bbl OPEX during Q4/2021", at the current Brent price, this could generate another huge step change increase in the current excellent cash generation going into 2022.

In addition, it was clear that the next acquisition is very likely to be a producing asset ....Paul sounded very bullish on this yesterday... "little competition, many sellers ... a buyers market!".

So, JSE could well be a 20,000+ bopd producer in 2022 with sub $20/bbl OPEX,- such a production growth scenario could potentially generate cash flows of circa $400m per annum at $65 Brent(plus IMO 2020 Premiums) and $600m at $100 Brent.

While the other O&G holdings may well have the potential to achieve a better capital growth performance than JSE over the next 3-4 years, I consider JSE's risk reward to be superior, particularly when considering the excellent downside protection, which today, despite its importance proving the test of time over at least 70 years of stock market history, and which proved invaluable for JSE in 2020, seems to be given a much lower investment case weighting by many PI's than it deserves, if many of the comments on Advfn are a reliable guide.

What the two high performing hedge funds(and I suspect many PI's) want is for Paul Blakeley and his team to continue replicating at Jadestone, what they did outstandingly successfully at Talisman Energy North Sea and SE Asia. ie use the same low risk O&G business MO of buying and operating efficiently, high quality assets with excellent re-investment potential, acquired at valuations which meet or exceed their demanding screening process.

As Edgar Bergen (and Warren Buffett) so aptly said, “Hard work never killed anyone, but why take the risk”.

AIMHO/DYOR

ps; if the question was; "which has the greatest potential for capital growth over a 1-2 year outlook regardless of risk to the investment capital": then SAVE, which like JSE is a very high cash flow generating business with near 80% operating margins and more than 94% of its revenues underwritten by the World Bank, and currently the subject of very strong interest from new investors would have been my selection.

Declaration - I hold 2.2m in SAVE, 90% of which were purchased at an average of circa 9.0p in December 2020, following the announcement in Lloyds List that the African continent's first mega shipping port and industrial city to challenge the dominance of the Chinese and SE Asian giants, had received Government approval and would be built in SAVE's back garden, where they're the sole provider of nat gas for clean energy generation, to the three hugely under-utilised power stations which service the province and, own the associated 260km network of gas pipeline infrastructure.

[fardels bear] 26/2/2021 23:02

I got bored with txp and sold at 14p.

[zorija] 26/2/2021 22:50

And how many times out of boredom and you have sold only to see to share price rocket...

[buffythebuffoon] 26/2/2021 22:48

That’s the one MT. I must confess I’d never thought of it that way.

I find it interesting that several people have said to me how brilliantly JSE are doing, but the share price is not going to be anywhere near as explosive in a two year time frame as SAVE and TXP, so their money is going there for now.

Buffy

[fardels bear] 26/2/2021 21:10

Forgot I'd left my limit buy order on. D'oh!

[mount teide] 26/2/2021 19:11

Today's 55 million transaction volume is the highest since the London 2018 IPO.

Buffy ....Mentioned that on the SAVE thread about JSE - that a company like JSE producing 11,000bopd at $50/bbl cash flow, not only generated more cash flow but offered tremendous downside protection compared to a company producing 33,000 bopd at $15/bbl cash flow.

JSE demonstrated brilliantly in 2020 that it offers huge downside protection in a very low oil price world - the company more than doubled its net cash position, paid a maiden dividend, took advantage of the collapse in O&G pricing to make a highly distressed £12m acquisition, while paying down £46m of loan interest and capital repayments!

[thedudie] 26/2/2021 18:59

55 million trades -- got to be the highest by a factor of nearly 2. I know most of them had balanced sells to each buy but still...
Someone or some people keen but loose stock being found from somewhere.

[thegreatgeraldo] 26/2/2021 16:23

Those metrics are handy, but as a starting point for further investigation....imvh

[buffythebuffoon] 26/2/2021 15:40

I can’t recall if it was Zengas or MT, but one of them mentioned that another angle is to look at margins if the oil or gas price dropped. It could take a lower margin producer into a loss making organisation. BOPD or BOEPD is fine, but unless the production is hedged (and how often is there a 100% hedge) it’s not the only thing to hang your hat on.

Buffy

[dcarn] 26/2/2021 14:39

I concur.

Both excellent companies with their own individual strengths.

[fardels bear] 26/2/2021 14:27

No that's not correct. I don't know why we are even discussing this in here. SQZ is excellent as is Jadestone. Just ignore the pillock who is trying to sow discord.

[thegreatgeraldo] 26/2/2021 13:52

btw, not sure about this metric for JSE....."EV/ Flowing bopd $58.9"

Looks out to me