Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[thedudie] 09/2/2021 08:28

Think what Bamboo2 is trying to say is ... oil has gone up and if people keep buying JSE like they are then the price of JSE is going to go up :) and soon we can plant a flag on the moon.

[buffythebuffoon] 09/2/2021 08:05

Hello bamboo2 (You mean there’s at least two of you?)

I believe that English is the language we use here. Coming from another planet is no excuse.

Buffy

[bamboo2] 09/2/2021 07:58

Bull flag on CL1 [Light] has hit target today.
Anticipate a turn and likely formation of another bull flag consolidation zone around now.
Could be short lived as next possible turn is 12-15/2/2021. Watch inbound trend for direction, if any.

Upbreak tp likely to be approx $64

[bradvert] 09/2/2021 02:24

Interesting article on $12B of IOC M&A opportunities in Asia Pacific region.
hxxps://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/asia/exploration-production-asia/293938/asia-mergers-and-acquisitions/

Even more interesting that it was retweeted by Jadestone's twitter account!

[mount teide] 08/2/2021 22:32

Oil Sees Strongest January In 30 Years



"commodities are leading the way and the inflationary thesis keeps building up"
"Best YTD performance in 30 years."
"Stunning how no one is talking about this."
Costs Otavio Partner and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital

'The year-over-year rise in a basket of commodity prices (and they mostly all show a similar pattern) is now a bit above 25%. This is a problem because in the past 20 years, that’s been consistent with headline inflation of just under 4%... or rather, it would be a problem if government headline inflation data actually reflected the reality of prices.
BMO Global Asset Management

[mount teide] 08/2/2021 20:46

Heavy sweet crude oil is extremely rare and constitutes less than 1% of global crude oil production, and since the introduction of the IMO 2020 Shipping Fuel Regs attracted premiums to Dated Brent averaging between $8 and $31/bbl.

Heavy sweet crudes are ideal for blending into low sulphur marine fuels due to the grades' rich fuel oil yield, very low sulphur content and unique specifications such as low pour point and high flash point.

Heavy sweet crudes go straight into the low sulphur marine fuels blending pool across Asia.

The high premiums paid do not reflect the refining value of the crude, but rather its value for blending into the low sulphur fuel oil pool.


The highest quality heavy sweet grades that attracted premiums to dated Brent of between $8 and $31/bbl during 2020 were:

0.14% Sulphur / 18.5% API - STAG - Australian / JADESTONE
0.19% Sulphur / 19.3% API - PYRENEES - Australian / BHP and SANTOS
0.37% Sulphur / 17.4% API - VINCENT - Australian / WOODSIDE
0.37% Sulphur / 18.5% API - VAN GOGH - Australian / BHP

The second tier heavy sweet crude grades that attracted premiums to Brent of between $3 and $9/bbl due to their slightly lower quality and the additional sea transportation cost of circa $5/bbl to the globally important marine fuel hubs at Singapore and Fujairah were:

0.11% Sulphur / 21.1% API - DOBA - CHAD
0.19% Sulphur / 18.5% API - ESCALANTI - ARGENTINA
0.20% Sulphur / 20.8% API - DURI - INDONESIA
0.34% Sulphur / 27.6% API - DJENO - CONGO
0.49% Sulphur / 23.7% API - DALIA - ANGOLA

Petrotal's heavy sweet Bretaña is at the premium end of this tier:
0.50% Sulphur / 19.5% API - BRETANA - PERU / PETROTAL

The premium Malaysian, Australian and NZ light sweet crudes also of interest to the marine fuel industry for blending with heavy sweet crudes to produce very low sulphur marine fuel oil that attracted premiums to Brent of between $2 and $9/bbl during 2020 were:

0.05% Sulphur Content / 35.0 API - MONTARA - AUSTRALIA /JADESTONE
0.06% Sulphur Content / 38.6 API - KIMANIS - MALAYSIA
0.09% Sulphur Content / 32.0 API - LABUAN - MALAYSIA
0.09% Sulphur Content / 35.1 API - MAARI - NZ/JADESTONE

Note: Montara and Maari have circa $2/bbl and $4/bbl additional sea transportation costs respectively to Singapore compared to the Malaysian producers.

AIMHO/DYOR

[croasdalelfc] 08/2/2021 13:50

I get the feeling they have a few slides to add when the update the market for 2021 guidance

[thommie] 08/2/2021 13:23

he has to have employees :)

[lord gnome] 08/2/2021 13:21

You are keeping yourself busy today MT. Thanks for all the info.

[mount teide] 08/2/2021 13:00

Updated Company Presentation - Feb 2021, now available on the company website.

[mount teide] 08/2/2021 12:47

Along with news of the completion of the Maari acquisition, another short term price catalyst is likely to be the Government sanctioning of the development plan for the Vietnam assets and Board approval.

Nam Du and U Minh should add an extra 30mm boe to 2P Reserves

According to JSE management this will add $246m NPV to the company, or around 53c/40p per share.

Current valuation is circa 20% below the NAV value of Stag and Montara with nothing yet in there for Maari (30p) and Nam Du and U Minh (40p).

[mount teide] 08/2/2021 12:15

Maari Oil Field Acquisition - Jadestone (69%)

FPSO - Roroa

2006 - Conversion to FPSO carried out at Jurong Shipyard - Singapore (cost of hull and conversion similar to sister ship Montara Venture at circa $107m)

2009 - Went into commercial operation on the Maari Field under a 10 year fixed price charter rate contract (with annual uplifts), containing an option to buy after 4 years.

2012/3 - Maari Field Consortium bought FPSO from the owner (price not disclosed - would estimate $85m-$100m)

2013 - FPSO underwent a US$40m upgrade programme of work in Nelson Shipyard NZ - this included the upgrade of the processing equipment and the installation of a new swivel so it could rotate on its mooring.

During this time construction activities at the Maari field continued in preparation for the tie-in of new wells. This included the upgrade of the wellhead platform and the replacement of several mooring lines of the anchor-buoy for the Raroa.

2016 - Carried out a further US$30 million upgrade on Roroa - including the upgrade of all eight of the ship's mooring lines to a higher strength specification, and the chain attachments and mooring line components to 'future-proof' the in-field operation of the FPSO for at least 10 years. "The replacement will mean that no major mooring works will be required for the next 10 years."

Considering the likely price paid by the Maari Consortium for FPSO Roroa and cost of improvements since carried out to the vessel - two fellow shipping industry professionals and myself believe Jadestone's 69% ownership share of the FPSO Roroa currently has a market value considerably in excess of the $50m paid by Jadestone for the purchase of 69% of the Maari Field INCLUSIVE of the FPSO Roroa.

Effectively, by the expected completion date of the deal in H1/2021 - Jadestone could well find itself in a position where they receive cash from OMV (generated from the effective 1/1/2019 date of the deal, through to the H1/2021 completion date), up to double $50m Maari acquisition purchase price payable on closing, with the 69% ownership shareholding of the significantly upgraded FPSO Roroa thrown in for free (similar to the Montara deal).

AIOHO/DYOR

[mount teide] 08/2/2021 11:56

L2: 1 v 3 / 72p v 73p (then 2 x 74p, 1 x 75p, 3 x 76p and 2 at 77p)

[mount teide] 08/2/2021 11:02

L2: 3 v 2 / 71p v 72p (then 5 x 73p, 1 x 74p and 3 at 76p)

[mount teide] 08/2/2021 09:43

L2: 1 v 1 / 69p v 71p (then 4 x 72p, with the rest 73p and above)

[mount teide] 08/2/2021 09:27

L2: 2 v 1 / 68p v 71p (then 4 x 72p, with the rest 73p and above)

[mount teide] 08/2/2021 09:24

S93 and LG - it was a comment made by an oil sector analyst in a recent report openly questioning the major's ability to generate similar returns for shareholders from renewables.

I too suspect 15% is closer to what they achieve rather than target.

[lord gnome] 08/2/2021 09:09

I could well imagine that 15% not what they target but it is what they end up with :-)

[spangle93] 08/2/2021 09:08

Large oil firms generally target a return on oil investments of about 15%.

Interesting comment, MT. Is this your observation or from an industry source?

My experience is that they target more, then don't deliver projects as planned, but for quite a lot of the last 20 years they have been bailed out by a higher oil price than forecast.

[mount teide] 08/2/2021 08:29

Brent through $60 this morning - first time since Jan 2020.

[mount teide] 08/2/2021 08:07

L2: 7 v 2 / 67p v 71p (then 5 x 72p, with the rest 73p and above)

[mount teide] 08/2/2021 00:19

Mr Looney is taking the company down the renewable energy route; an approach with huge upfront capital investment costs.

The energy transition road will likely be very bumpy for BP and all the oil majors; since they have little experience in renewables and new investments will make them subject to the execution risk. Not all investments will probably prove to be successful.

Large oil firms generally target a return on oil investments of about 15%. BP recently said it expects returns of 8% to 10% from its low-carbon electricity investments, with the traditional oil and gas units pushing overall returns to 12% to 14% by 2030.

[fardels bear] 07/2/2021 23:51

Right. So I have just six figures of these. Next week I hope to receive the funds from an old pension transfer into my sipp. Does the team think I should fill my boots with more of these or buy some BP for the div?

[ilostthelot] 07/2/2021 23:20

You're a legend MT. Thankyou 👍