Jadestone Energy Share Discussion Threads

[thegreatgeraldo] 18/2/2021 10:54

In fact the gas pipelines that were laid above surface instead under it got frozen.

...Not quite cold enough to freeze the gas ...problem was water in untreated gas freezing.....& power loss to pumps

[thommie] 18/2/2021 10:46

In fact the gas pipelines that were laid above surface instead under it got frozen. only 25% of energy in texas comes from renewables and only 40% of this were offline. while 2/3 of the problem is from gas/oil/coal powering that went offline, as the pipes are not able to deliver anymore and the liquids and gas at producing wells just froze at the wellbore! thats why 3,5mio bopd arent shut in currently. in other countries like european ones you normally have links between different energy networks to balance regional fluctuations in supply and demand. but texas energy system is totally isolated from the rest because of under investment in infrastructure, so they werent able to get some energy from other parts... if you ever have been to the USA, you will see that their infrastructure is partly worse than in 3rd world countries. when I was over there in 2014 we experienced 4 power failures in 5 weeks! that was in florida at 20-25 degrees... the power lines are hanging on vulnerable thin wooden masts that fall down on the slightest storm.. twice the blackout was because they laid power lines to houses free on the street, after it rained they had a short curcuit leading to a black out... it's so unbelievable... and dangerous....I agree with you, that gas demand will rise and oil will stay around 100-110mio bopd for decades but not because renewables are bad, expensive or anything else, but in asia and other 3rd world economies they cant meet the fast rising energy need only with renewables, but the renewables will be able to stop the rising demand at least that would occur otherwise. It's a fairy tale that renewables are more expensive than oil and gas or nuclear power today. people often forget the subsidies, waste storage and decomissioning costs that the others get and cause! in germany we produced 46% of energy in 2020 out of renewables, still rising. but you are right, it will need gas power plants and storage systems as backup for times wind and sun are not generating enough power! we didnt have any regular blackouts so far... china built more renewable power last year alone than germany in the last 25 years. but ofc it doesnt exceed the energy growth atm. but just imagine what would happen without adding renewable capacity....so while I agree that oil and gas will be needed for decades to come at current or above lvls I cant see that renewables are bad or expensive. In fact they are not. the costs declined nearly 100% in the last 10 years, still declining.

[mount teide] 18/2/2021 10:38

clef....fair point ...... but it's the fast growing, very high population, high energy growth, huge energy consuming Nations of India, SE Asia and China that will largely determine the rate of energy transition from Coal and O&G to renewables.....and that is not going to happen across that region on any material scale for many, many decades.

Despite 40 years of near double digit economic growth, the per capita O&G consumption of the region has still only risen to barely a tenth of the West.

Think about it......Were China alone to have an oil consumption per capita equivalent to the West, they would consume more than 100m bopd - greater than current global oil production.

China currently imports more oil per year than the annual production of Saudi Arabia and the North and Norwegian Sea's combined, but China's consumption per capita is still barely an eighth to a tenth of the West according to latest estimates.

Considering the breakneck growth in energy consumption, it no surprise China's and India's oil consumption has already surged back to above the pre pandemic level.

AIMHO/DYOR

Data source: BP.

[mount teide] 18/2/2021 09:53

FB - Peak oil? Is that the same peak oil that the greens and illiberal left were rattling on about....over 50 years ago?

Germany’s millions of solar panels are blanketed in snow and ice and its 30,000 wind turbines are doing nothing as the freezing weather has no wind resource to keep the turbines operating.

Instead, the solar and wind units are drawing power FROM the grid powered mainly by coal to keep their internal workings from freezing up!



Widespread use of electric vehicles even in the West are a lot further off than many people think. I'd still like to know where all the electricity is going to come from ?

PV panels don't work at night or when it's foggy. Wind turbines don't work when there's no wind ... or too much wind.

This week we've learned that there's a 3rd reason .. when they freeze solid, as happened in Texas.

Ask those 5 million Texans without power this week at minus 20C what they think of 'windmills'.

Yes, the world will be short of oil soon. And is likely to be short of EV's for decades yet as the batteries are still far from fit for purpose, neither is or will be the electricity supply.

If Western countries make it impossible for their oil majors to invest in new exploration projects, rest assured someone else will.

India, Chinese and SE Asian oil companies and much of OPEC will do what Shell, BP, Exxon won’t do.

If there were any financial gain from ‘green ‘ energies, we would have seen a reduction of the electricity price. Unfortunately our energy bills went up, not down. Our energy bill's are telling us the more windmills and solar panels we have, the more expensive the energy becomes.

Western countries risk bankrupting themselves. And Asia will enjoy watching the show, because they certainly are not joining in the dash for renewables.

As sure as night follows day, the 4.8bn population of India, China and SE Asia, which is bolting on the 900 million population of the west every 12 years as growth, and which has an average per capita oil usage still less than one tenth of the West, will almost certainly have a peak oil demand well beyond 2035, since currently, somewhere between 60%-70% of energy there is generated from coal - which in China, according to the most optimistic forecast is not expected to drop to even 30% by 2050.

Going 'green' in India, China and SE Asia means transitioning to Oil and Gas, not renewables, which is a tiny fraction of energy generation and will likely stay that way for decades to come.

Diesel Landcruiser? Why not?

AIMHO/DYOR

[fardels bear] 18/2/2021 08:44

Very thought provoking, MT. Two questions if I may.1. Do we think that once JSE has grown into a medium outfit by dynamic and organic growth, that a distressed NOC or supermajor is likely to pay over the odds for the company to make up its shortfall in reserves due to massive under investment since 2014.2 do you think that I should shelve my plans to buy a diesel landcruiser?

[croasdalelfc] 18/2/2021 08:14

Depends when it closes . Say end April 2021 . Operating cash flow from Jan 19- April 21 circa $120m .Take away some capex ( very low as only workovers, replacing pumps etc): $10mplus G&A : $10mtax ,amortisation ,depletion No idea : a complete guess would be $30mAnd the $50m acquisition cost Let's say $10m-$25m

[tens machine] 18/2/2021 01:23

What sort of payment will jade get from omv for maari on completion? Ball park .....

[mount teide] 18/2/2021 00:51

Peak oil demand is coming - but first brace for an almighty supply crunch - Telegraph

'The greatest threat to Saudi Arabia and Russia over the next five years is a roaring bull market for crude oil, worse yet if prices spike to all-time highs of $150.

Such an outcome is probably baked into the pie already. There is not enough supply coming on stream to replace the structural decline in old oil wells. The crunch will come before electric vehicles eat seriously into global fuel demand.

The Saudis need to hold oil prices in the sweet spot of $60 to $70 - roughly where they are today. That is just high enough to keep the Kingdom afloat, but low enough to extend the oil era into the 2040s (they hope). But such calibration is beyond their power.

Once Brent punches through $100, the cost advantage switches rapidly to the green camp. It accelerates the migration of Big Money into more lucrative green tech - the final heave that finishes off fossils once and for all.

There is a paradox. Net-zero targets and good behaviour codes (ESG) make the problem worse before it gets better. Doubts over the long-term viability and morality of Big Oil - and fears of the long-tail legal risk - are closing the finance window. Talk of stranded assets scares away investors. Companies are reluctant to sink large sums into mega-projects that take seven years to reach fruition.

The leading oil names are scrambling to reinvent themselves as green transition companies. “Essentially, all the ‘majors’ have now acknowledged the climate emergency,” said Jean-Louis Le Mee from the energy hedge fund Westbeck Capital. “BP, Shell, Total, ENI, Equinor, Repsol are all adopting carbon neutral targets that can only be met by increasing spending on renewables and letting their oil production decline.”

Shell will cut oil output by 30pc this decade, BP by 40pc. “These are huge numbers. Exxon, Chevron and Conoco are behind but following the same path. They are the largest spenders on new oil projects around the world,” he said.

Mr Le Mee thinks the global economy is on the cusp of the greatest supply squeeze in the history of the oil markets. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan both say we are in the early foothills of a Himalayan supercycle for commodities.

The world has turned its back on austerity. Keynesian reflation doctrines are triumphant. The Biden administration explicitly aims to run the US economy hot, with the help of the Federal Reserve. Global "green deals" amount to $16 trillion. “It’s going to turbo-charge oil demand in 2022,” said John Hess, head of Hess Corp.

This spending may be low-carbon in ultimate effect but in the short-run it is brown. The transition requires infrastructure. It requires bulldozers and trucks. It requires the mining of iron ore and thermal coal, and the shipment to steel foundries. It trumps the $10 trillion infrastructure blitz by China, India, Brazil. and the emerging market "mini-BRICs" of the last commodity supercycle.

If future demand is large, the shortfall in future supply is even larger. Investment of $600bn a year in non-Opec exploration and drilling is needed to keep the global show on the road. Spending collapsed after 2014 and has never recovered. Last year it was $300bn. It has been running at just 35pc of levels reached in the boom.

This catches up with you in the end. The last two super projects to enter supply were Norway’s Johan Sverdrup and the Exxon-Hess Guyana venture. Henceforth it is a drought.

Goldman Sachs estimates that 9m to 10m barrels a day of future supply have vanished. That is a tenth of the world’s 100m barrels a day production. Remember that a swing of just 1m either way in normal times can flip the market from slump to price spike. Short-term demand is inelastic.

The elephant in the room is falling supply from non-Opec producers. These companies and regions (excluding US shale) were gently adding 500,000 barrels a day annually a year until recently. Goldman Sachs thinks they will soon be subtracting up to 1m barrels a day each year.

The pandemic has distorted the immediate picture but not the underlying dynamics. Global demand has fallen by 6m barrels a day. Two thirds of that is jet fuel. Aviation will come back fast as soon as the flying world is vaccinated.

Sitting in Europe, we must avoid the error of extrapolating from our lockdown psychosis. Oil use in China and India has already returned to pre-pandemic levels. There is a deficit of at least 1m barrels a day in the market. This will clear the global glut by the end of the second quarter.

Mr Hess expects a V-shaped recovery in demand, inadequately matched by “sticky” U-shaped recovery in output. This time America’s shale frackers will not come to the rescue. In the glory days, they responded quickly and with gusto every time prices picked up. They made up the entire increase in global output over the last eight years.

"Shale’s gone from a growth business to a harvest business. Too much money was thrown at shale from 2015 to 2017,” he told IHS Markit’s CeraWeek.

"Discipline broke down. Frackers went all out for expansion, gobbling up $80bn of equity investment, and much debt, to cover capex spending running at 130pc of cash flow. They lost three times that amount of money this year. There have been 80 bankruptcies.

“Sentiment has changed. It’s gone from ‘drill baby drill’, to show me the money,” he said. Frackers are being forced to cap reinvestment at 70pc and use the rest to pay down debt or pay dividends. They must refinance $100bn over the next four years," Mr Hess added.

Hess Corp is running just two rigs in the Bakken shale zone compared to eight in the heyday. Mr Hess says it will not go above four again even if oil prices soar. It is the same message from the big Texas frackers Pioneer and EOG. “Flat is the new normal.”

The geology is eroding. Frackers have exploited their tier one properties. They are increasingly having to drill in tier two zones with lower yields. Many flattered their output before with heavy use of sand and chemicals. Now they face the payback of a steeper decline rate.

The Opec-Russia alliance has of course stabilised prices by taking 7m barrels a day out of production. That has yet to come back on stream and hangs over the market. Bulls are betting that global demand will rebound faster than the Saudis and Russian can reopen.

The larger question is whether Opec has the means to cover both the coming supply gap and normal demand growth, still running at 1m barrels a day annually despite EVs.

“The real fireworks could happen in 2022 or 2023. The risk is that even the Saudis run out of spare capacity and lose control of prices. Then it’s the 2007-2008 scenario,” said Mr Le Mee. That would bring $150 into view. Even $200 is possible before the shock breaks the economy.

Ten years from now we will be in another energy world. EVs will undercut combustion cars on purchase price by 2023 to 2024. At that point the switch will become a cascade. Western countries will roll out cash-for-clunker policies to take the old fleet off the road. The new middle class in China will leapfrog to EVs.

The trucking industry will be on the way to electrification or hydrogen. Jet fuel mandates will force up the share of green synthetic fuel for aviation.

By then we will be far past the point of peak oil demand and OPEC will be struggling to sell its output. But first we have to get through the next five years. Strap yourself in for the roller-coaster ride.'

[mount teide] 17/2/2021 23:57

Marine Fuel Oil prices are continuing to strengthen ahead of the rate of increase of the Global Benchmark crude oil pricing:

Change compared to pricing on 9th December 2020 in brackets - (all prices rounded to nearest whole number)

$94 / (+19) - MGO - APAC Average
$81 / (+20) - VLSFO - APAC Average
$76 / (+20) - Jadestone / STAG - (est $11 / 18% Premium to Brent)
$68 / (+17) - Jadestone / Montara - ($4.0 / 8% Premium to Brent)
$66 / (+17) - Maari ($2.0 / 3% Premium to Brent)
$64 / (+16) - Brent
$62 / (+16) - WTI
$60 / (+14) - HSFO - APAC Average


$24/bbl - Est Stag OPEX
$18/bbl - Est Montara OPEX
$16.5/bbl - Maari OPEX

$5 - VLSFO/STAG Spread
$17 - VLSFO/Brent Spread
$21 - VLSFO/HSFO Spread

Jadestone should currently be generating circa $52/bbl of cash flow on the Stag production, $50/bbl on the unhedged Montara Production and Maari production, inclusive of the IMO 2020 Premium.

Equivalent to over $215 million per annum of cash flow on an annualised basis inclusive of the Q1/2021 oil price hedge and, circa $290 million inclusive of Maari production;
based on an average of the current production for the year, which is likely to be highly conservative considering the in-fill drilling, well optimisation and pump replacement programme scheduled for 2021.

AIMHO/DYOR

[mount teide] 17/2/2021 23:11

gopgb - 'MT .....If your adding,,,,,Do you like Jade or Save better now ?'

Over a three year investment outlook - I believe both offer excellent growth prospects and upside potential.

[croasdalelfc] 17/2/2021 18:42

Guidance for 21 is due before end of month - likely this week

[lord gnome] 17/2/2021 18:42

Some very large holdings going through the market and changing hands today.

[bamboo2] 17/2/2021 14:59

Kb, Same. My chart suggesting possible news imminent, although my record on JSE is not 100%. [tomorrow and/or 25/2/2021]

[king_baller] 17/2/2021 14:50

That’s not true pro_s2009. Saudi's extra cut was always for a 2 month period. I’ve topped up jadestone today. The share price hasn’t reflected the oil price rise. Also I’m expecting news imminently.

[pro_s2009] 17/2/2021 14:33

Oil might be going down - Saudi just announcing they are going to turn the taps on and increase production now.

[thommie] 17/2/2021 13:21

there are just too many opportunities around atm. no one knows where to add... jadestone soon will earn it's mcap in a year if it stays that static :)

[croasdalelfc] 17/2/2021 13:14

At $64.5 Brent . . Average realised price $71.15kbopd production inc MaariOperating cash flow $50 barrel or $22.5m a month or $270m a year

[gopbg] 17/2/2021 12:19

MT .....If your adding,,,,,Do you like Jade or Save better now ?

[fardels bear] 16/2/2021 18:07

I'm confident....

[thedudie] 16/2/2021 17:34

More big trades put through.
Seems most days there are big trades now - someone must be confident.

[nufc9] 15/2/2021 12:49

Appreciate the info. It certainly likes to consolidate! been the slowest mover of all my oil stocks... however i am patient and here for the long term. GLA

[bamboo2] 15/2/2021 12:36

SP is up approx 70% since November.

Consolidation is good.
Price can take a breather and gather strength for the next run.

Eod close above historical resistance at 77 confirms a target price at approx 100.6

[nufc9] 15/2/2021 12:07

Gotta admit I'm surprised at the slow progress of the share price considering the leaps and bounds made by oil price.

[mount teide] 15/2/2021 09:12

Brent up to $63.5 - that suggests with the current IMO 2020 premium the operating cash flow at both Montara and Stag has hit an astonishing circa $50/bbl.