Itv Share Discussion Threads

[poikka] 13/10/2020 13:35

Net - re. 80p target, "Not if that target is for today..."

Please, that is not today's target.

[stansmith3] 13/10/2020 12:29

Why is it so hard to take the simple explanation ?uncertainty over short term earnings are keeping the share price under 90uncertainty over long term earnings keeping the share price under 150?

[ivanborsky] 13/10/2020 12:17

This stock has nothing to do with Covid or the markets in general. GS call the shots here and have been since July 2015 ! I think there are few others on here that are also wise to the fact.

[alex1621] 13/10/2020 11:59

We are all slaves to Covid-19 and UK Government incompetence ... I can't see much moving the share price until this fog clears.

[netcurtains] 13/10/2020 11:53

alex1621: the difference between 120 and 150 (30) is 25% - that is a significant difference. I take your general point in that they tend to use the same figures and thus come up with similar-ish findings - the divergence is also interesting though. The most recent one (March) is probably the most reliable price for a post-covid high - £1.20.... However, we're not looking for that, we're looking for 80p rise to results and potential 90p if 4th quarter looks like it will be good and a drug company announces success in phrase 3 trial (they should be at least ONE before Christmas).

[alex1621] 13/10/2020 11:45

180 is an outlier, they are all similar. And they move with each other, up or down. When an update is lower than expected, they plug lower future figures into their models, and when higher they plug higher future numbers ... as if company updates follow a linear trend indefinitely. I've never worked in a company whose figures worked out that way. And most analysts have never worked in a company to understand that. And some of them are being steered by their own organisation to help out a client, who either wants to buy cheaply, or sell high. The Cityboy book gave examples of that sort of activity. In my view these targets are worthless.

[netcurtains] 13/10/2020 10:58

alex1621: You are actually wrong - the dates are given - go up to March 2020. What is interesting these are all pre-covid prices - and they are different - the percentage difference between 180 and 130 is quite big.
here they are again so you can double check:

06-Mar-20 Deutsche Hold 102.30p 130.00p 120.00p Reiteration30-Jan-20 Barclays Equal 136.90p 130.00p 150.00p Reiteration13-Nov-19 Barclays Equal 133.35p 0.00p 130.00p Reiteration12-Nov-19 Liberum Capital Buy 138.30p 0.00p 180.00p Reiteration12-Nov-19 Berenberg Bank Hold 138.30p 125.00p 125.00p Reiteration



So the point is, coming up to Christmas we have results, big advertising rush and potential covid cure.

Thus a rally to 80p seems likely (recent broker forecast) and a post results rally to 90p is at least 50:50 (with investors thinking of a possible rise to 130 to 180 later in 2021)...

[stansmith3] 13/10/2020 10:52

alexhe is on a different planet, but good luck trying

[scooper72] 13/10/2020 10:44

I think I would want to see the market test 72p a couple of times today and if it then starts to get upwards momentum from there I will start buying again.

[alex1621] 13/10/2020 10:44

Net ... it's October 2020, and you are showing 2019 targets? My point is not that they are identical, but they tend to follow each other and cluster ... they are pretty meaningless. I don't understand why anyone pays them any heed?

[netcurtains] 13/10/2020 10:39

STV doing well this morning....

[plat hunter] 13/10/2020 10:14

I didn't see Liberium on a buy

[netcurtains] 13/10/2020 10:13

PH: Agreed BARC down to 103 today... I think its the negative interest rates that might have spooked the market a bit. However ITV is, in my view, a good buy, and its entertaining - so its a double whammy. And I'm not a broker, I'm a doing-Ok-er

[plat hunter] 13/10/2020 10:07

None of them are a buy then?

[netcurtains] 13/10/2020 09:33

alex I dont think the broker forcastes are all the same - some very different ones here:

06-Mar-20 Deutsche Hold 102.30p 130.00p 120.00p Reiteration30-Jan-20 Barclays Equal 136.90p 130.00p 150.00p Reiteration13-Nov-19 Barclays Equal 133.35p 0.00p 130.00p Reiteration12-Nov-19 Liberum Capital Buy 138.30p 0.00p 180.00p Reiteration12-Nov-19 Berenberg Bank Hold 138.30p 125.00p 125.00p Reiteration


I guess the 80p is a more short run target (makes sense to me)

[alex1621] 13/10/2020 09:05

Brokers target prices are pointless, they simply copy each other as there is a safety in crowds ... ITV will now experience virus bumps in the road, as will all virus impacted shares.

[plat hunter] 13/10/2020 09:02

Remember those gaps in the 60's

[netcurtains] 13/10/2020 08:51

I think - the way I see the UPGRADE is that the brokers envisage a rally towards the results that could be in the region of 80p.

Once the results are public and 4th quarter estimates are known we might get a further upgrade (if good) to 90p or £1....

Obviously a retrace due to profit taking etc etc will happen from time to time, I'm talking about the general trend towards results and Christmas.

If I was a guessing man I'd say bounce to 80p on results will start once share price fallen to about 71p-67p range.... Depends on market.

[scooper72] 13/10/2020 08:47

Oh well. There's my answer

[scooper72] 13/10/2020 08:46

Would be interested to know what people think abut 73p holding or being broken today?

[scooper72] 13/10/2020 08:33

Well I was averaging up. I guess now I'm about to start averaging down

[stansmith3] 13/10/2020 08:10

relative to what?q2/3 2020or q4 2019

[netcurtains] 13/10/2020 08:06

I think we can expect a bumper advertising explosion 4th quarter as every major company will want to start ramping up their sales as much as possible....

[nige co] 13/10/2020 07:57

Barclays Upgrade.

In a note on Monday, Barclays upped its target price for ITV to 80p from 75p and retained their ‘equal weight’ rating as they issued forecasts for the broadcaster’s third quarter trading update, which is due on November 12.

The bank said it expected ITV to report a 13% decline in revenues for the three month period, comprising of a 10.5% fall in advertising revenue as well as a 22.5% decline in revenues from its content production arm, ITV Studios. Barclays added that they expected investors to focus on the outlook for the fourth quarter, given it is the “largest quarter” with large amounts of advertising during the festive period.

[nige co] 13/10/2020 07:56

Barclays Upgrade.

In a note on Monday, Barclays upped its target price for ITV to 80p from 75p and retained their ‘equal weight’ rating as they issued forecasts for the broadcaster’s third quarter trading update, which is due on November 12.

The bank said it expected ITV to report a 13% decline in revenues for the three month period, comprising of a 10.5% fall in advertising revenue as well as a 22.5% decline in revenues from its content production arm, ITV Studios. Barclays added that they expected investors to focus on the outlook for the fourth quarter, given it is the “largest quarter” with large amounts of advertising during the festive period.

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