Itv Share Discussion Threads

[marksp2011] 06/3/2024 19:58

The lower the share price the more asymmetric the risk becomes for shorters. It's ok if you are the only shorter you can close 2% easily. If there are a herd of you and it turns you are in trouble unless you take a derivative long to stop the rot

[zam1] 06/3/2024 19:49

BritBox sale should give some good figures overall also budget boost.Can share price beat 75p tomorrow and beat the recent 65p after BritBox sale.

[netcurtains] 06/3/2024 16:48

ITV seems to be getting good news of late...
We just need to get through tomorrow then....
it "should" be plain sailing NORTH...

Tomorrow though is the great unknown...

[netcurtains] 06/3/2024 14:31

Nice to see WPP up
ITV needs advertisers and if advertisers are up than
that is good for ITV...

[corby3] 06/3/2024 14:23

Budget good for ITV.

stag6. It should be up 5%, but nothing gets it moving!

Share buyback announced Friday and for a minute it looked like the share price was making a recovery until it falls back half of the gain. Good budget today for the whole sector and it puts on a half pence. I think we have had two fillips in 4 days and the share price still just a tad over 60p.

Only a resignation from the CEO along with half a dozen board members will get this to the 70p G/f reckons.

A new brush is vital to ITV.

[stag6] 06/3/2024 14:11

Budget good for ITV.

Sound stages and film studios to benefit from 40% gross business rates relief until 2034. The chancellor now turns to support for the creative industries, saying the UK has become "Europe's largest film and TV production centre".

Jeremy Hunt says studio space has doubled in the last three years and he is "committed to providing more tax relief for visual effects in film and high-end TV". As part of that Mr Hunt announces there will be a 5% increase in the rate of tax credit and the 80% cap for visual effects costs will be removed in the Audio-Visual Expenditure Credit.

Eligible film studios in England will also benefit from a 40% relief on their gross business rates until 2034, he adds.

[royston6] 06/3/2024 13:46

I didn’t make any price predictions, I simply highlighted the eps and P/E ratio

Trader..At 23p the whole caboodle would have a Mkt Cap of a billion pounds, weren't the Studios recently valued at £3 billion without the rest of it.

We know eps goes up and down, but an investor should be looking at the company as the sum of the parts as Jimmy Goldsmith used to say. ITV' sum of the parts is at least double the share price of 59p it stands at today.

[tlobs2] 06/3/2024 13:37

Looks like they like the budget :-)

[trader465] 06/3/2024 13:18

I didn’t make any price predictions, I simply highlighted the eps and P/E ratio

[huckers] 06/3/2024 13:15

Can't do any harm. If someone were already considering a move to acquire ITV Studios, then it would add to the appeal.

[smurfy2001] 06/3/2024 13:10

Some film studios to benefit from 40% gross business rates relief until 2034
The chancellor now turns to support for the creative industries, saying the UK has become "Europe's largest film and TV production centre".

Jeremy Hunt says studio space has doubled in the last three years and he is "committed to providing more tax relief for visual effects in film and high-end TV".

As part of that, he announces there will be a 5% increase in the rate of tax credit and the 80% cap for visual effects costs will be removed in the Audio-Visual Expenditure Credit.

Eligible film studios in England will also benefit from a 40% relief on their gross business rates until 2034, he adds.

[justiceforthemany] 06/3/2024 12:13

trader465
Get yourself another hobby.
Dreadful all round.

[loginname] 06/3/2024 12:04

trader465 - please login at 8am tomorrow - I'd like to review your 23p prediction!

[netcurtains] 06/3/2024 11:57

trader465: HOWEVER

if you know there will be carnage in advance doesn't that rather destroy the carnage in that its already in the price?

Surely its not the bad results that are important but are they going to be worse than trader465 thinks they will be?

Clearly you think they will be extremely terrible (so I guess you are typical) so if they are just terrible that in a sense is a "doing better than expected"....

[trader465] 06/3/2024 11:51

There will be carnage here tomorrow, the half year financials were dreadful. EPS at 2.3p


“Group adjusted EBITA was down 52% at GBP152 million, as expected. This reflects the challenging advertising market and the planned investment in ITVX. Adjusted EPS(1) was down 62% at 2.3p”

EPS 2.3p would warrant a 23p share price on a P/E of X10

[loginname] 06/3/2024 11:40

@Huckers - I thought so too.

Also if you are referring to this piece:

"On Thursday, ITV is likely to reveal dismal annual results, with analysts predicting pre-tax profits of £363m for 2023 — a fall of 46% from last year’s £672m. The fall is almost entirely due to an 8% drop in advertising revenue, resulting from what was described by ITV chief executive Dame Carolyn McCall as “the worst advertising recession” since the global financial crisis."

Then to be honest - I don't know what all the fuss is about - "an 8% drop in advertising revenue" - wow I mean not even double digits?

If there was a "48%" drop in advertising revenue then yeah I'd be worried.
But 8% or whatever the final number is published tomorrow - seems like an excuse for the wider media to have a lazy dig at ITV frankly.

[matthewr1] 06/3/2024 11:36

I think the simplest way to view the buyback is it will be between 5-10% of the order book volume (not the daily volume).

[huckers] 06/3/2024 11:23

Pre-tax profits of £363m is respectable. Of course, we'll find out the true number tomorrow but I actually expect(ed) worse!

[royston6] 06/3/2024 11:12

Interesting article makes a lot of sense.

[ny boy] 06/3/2024 10:24

The itv takeover story has been running for at least 10 years or roughly the same time when stansmith was in Nappies

[goblin99] 06/3/2024 10:20

As the chill wind of refrain surrounds us, look what is directly in front through the mist. The buyback may just be in readiness to prevent an attack from an aggressor.

[matthewr1] 06/3/2024 09:24

There are lots of rules surrounding buybacks. I’m not an expert on them exactly , but there are limitations to daily volume (in terms of %) as well as things like the buyback can’t left offers (ie ramp the shares) etc. I agree , it will take several months to conclude. The buyback has to be passive net net.

[loginname] 06/3/2024 09:24

@TrikyTree - thanks will look.

I think you make a good point about the size of the buyback relative to market cap.

I know for example BP is a giant, so probably their buybacks are a bee sting.

Whereas ITV are buying back 10% of the company - this feels extreme(!) - and I also wonder how a less-liquid stock will cope with the volume of buys... interesting times ahead.

[trikytree] 06/3/2024 09:13

Loginname, if you’re still interested take a look at the BP thread. They’ve been doing buy backs for ages. You can see the daily RNS’ about them. They buyback around 2M shares a day. Yesterdays 2M were bought in a price range of 470-475.
The BP buyback scheme whilst huge is not as huge as what ITV is proposing in terms of relativity to market cap. Therefore BP doesn’t struggle buying the shares back each day and the share price is not really affected. It remains to be seen how a less liquid stock which is mostly institutionally held will perform when around 9% of stock is bought back. Maybe they’ll be sellers happy to get out at these derisory prices but if not the share price could really benefit. Let’s see. Before any of that the results themselves will have a bigger impact.