Ithaca Energy Share Discussion Threads

[cirlbunting1] 03/12/2024 10:19

Out at BE.

[bigegoadvfn] 02/12/2024 16:40

Yes further consolidation is likely...

"The UK windfall tax and hefty decommissioning costs mean more consolidation is likely on the UK continental shelf (UKCS)."

[petersinthemarket] 02/12/2024 15:30

#113 Big.....
Many tks. Very helpful indeed. I can visualize the basic company structure now. The new set-up looks pretty powerful actually, although I know little about the major NSea players. Not really my field.

Elsewhere I have seen BB claims that SQZ could have ambitions to own half of North Sea oil/gas.

Care to comment on this?
pete

[bigegoadvfn] 02/12/2024 14:48

Hi Pete,
I'm still learning about this one too...

From what I gather, at a high level, there were about 1bn shares in issue previously. Then Eni agreed to merge certain North Sea assets into Ithaca in return for about a third of the new larger company. That was completed recently and resulted in the shares in issue increasing to 1.6bn in order to achive this - with the 600m or so new shares going to Eni.

Good list of major shareholders here if you register for free:


The Eni deal follows a model that they have used successfully with other companies (including Vår Energi in Norway and Azule Energy in Angola) which they refer to as "previous successful upstream combinations" to create a "satellite model", info here:



The important bit for me is that Eni are not simply going to dump and run rather:
"Following the Combination, Eni is a fully committed, long-term and supportive shareholder of Ithaca". And Eni is a EUR 45 billion company...

So basically now ITH has 52.5% (majority) shareholder Delek Group, followed by 37.4% Eni, leaving almost exactly 10% for everybody else. It's not that liquid then and these 2 major shareholders basically have a cash cow to milk.

I'm ok to join in.

The huge dividends might not last forever, but plenty of analysis suggests they will last well into 2028/2029 - by which time it is not unreasonble to think investors today will have earned their entire purchase price back - ie buy a share for 104p today that will pay about 30 cents a year (23p dependent on GBP/USD) and your investment will pay for itself in about 4 or 5 years. Of course no dividend is guaranteed, and there are risks, eg environmental action around assets like the Rosebank field - but overall based on what I have found out the risk/reward is favourable to add to my portfolio - and I'm already expecting the special dividend on 20 Dec now.



Hope that's helpful.

[petersinthemarket] 02/12/2024 14:21

Whilst the HiYld and potential for capital gain are an obvious draw, I have to confess that I am still holding back on any major investment here because I don't really understand the business, including the latest Eni link.

What is a combination? Is it a JV or a T/O? What is the intended benefit to ITH and it's investors.

ITH doesn't (to me) look like a straightforward (single) business entity, it looks more like an accumulation of different percentages of differant companies.

If someone has the patience and the time to offer a simple picture of the ITH set up, I would be most grateful.
pete

[bigegoadvfn] 01/12/2024 08:15

Harbour Energy (LON: HBR) has commenced production at its Talbot development in the UK North Sea.

The three-well subsea tieback is located around 16 kilometres south-east of its Judy platform which stands around 240-kilometres south-east of Aberdeen.

The operator owns a 67% stake in the development while Ithaca Energy controls the remaining 33%.

[bigegoadvfn] 29/11/2024 18:38

Ok I’m in! Here for the huge dividends and the expected growth!

What convinced me was the long term backing from Eni as major shareholder - this is impressive.

“Following the Combination, Eni is a fully committed, long-term and supportive shareholder of Ithaca, that is now positioned as the largest resource holder in the UK North Sea1 with a diversified portfolio of production and development opportunities, that has the ability to underpin material long-term organic growth.”

[s34icknote] 28/11/2024 14:19

New buyers today would be yielding 25 percent !! Good top up opportunity

[s34icknote] 28/11/2024 14:18

Technically down 5p today after going up 6 p yesterday !!!

[s34icknote] 28/11/2024 08:15

Div paid 9.50 , into bank on dec 20th

[gotabsirius] 28/11/2024 07:57

Production is 70% Natural gas, note gas price in Europe currently!!!

[s34icknote] 27/11/2024 18:35

Ith merged with eni .So yes more shares in issue. Company has nearly double in size . However production has gone from 60k to 120k .Revised payout is 500 million dollars Pre merger was paying this but with higher oil prices . Now bigger group paying 500 million with lower oil prices .7.5p paid in August , 9.5p paying in dec , and Again in April 2025 proposed div ! Free cashflow around 800 million dollars .Risk is oil price . But that goes both ways !

[bigegoadvfn] 27/11/2024 13:51

I'm interested. :)

Tell me more about the 27% yield HL are telling me exists here.

I've read about the $500m annual dividend target which seems a lot for a company with a market cap of less than £2bn.

What's the catch here? What are the risks - eg is it just production related?

And what about this dilution of existing shareholders I am reading about? I assume it's happened now so in the past (following giving shares to Eni mid-2024) so the current shares in issue of approx 1.6 billion is correct for now and not expected to change significantly?

Cheers in advance for any guidance.

[s34icknote] 27/11/2024 08:28

Last day for div !!!

[petersinthemarket] 26/11/2024 12:47

>>s34.....
I understand your position. As I said, I hadn't expected a special and so had sold out. I'll keep an eye on things and might be tempted if the share price shows further progress, but otherwise it doesn't seem to be worth tying up capital until closer to the next xDiv. Best of luck with your holding.
pete

[s34icknote] 25/11/2024 22:13

Now at 115p yield of 23 percent ! At 135p yield 19.5 percent At 150 p yield 17.6 percent . At 175 p yield is 15 percent At 200 p yield is 13 percent .Being an oil stock out of favour , should be around 150p !! Either way happy collecting the divs as we wait !!!

[s34icknote] 25/11/2024 22:09

Peter It's showing that the divs are real and coming . The market had priced a cut and the shares languish with a 26.5 percent yield from 1.00 upwards . I believe phoenix is around 11 percent yieldSo you can get twice the yield of the highest ftse 100 stock ! I think the stock is under the radar of most investors .

[petersinthemarket] 25/11/2024 14:57

Thanks LG - The announcement caught me out - I sold out a week ago - I wasn't expecting any more Divs until mar2025. Also new Gov attitude to oil/gas is hardly encouraging. pete

[lord gnome] 25/11/2024 12:35

See posts 72 and 74. I think buyers are waking up to the huge dividends on offer, not just this special - although it is rather nice.

[peterlowen] 25/11/2024 12:32

And another dividend in March 2024 200mill and the possibility of another 500mil in 2 tranches Sept 2024 and March 2025..... Plus growth in the company.

[zangdook] 25/11/2024 12:29

There was a second RNS on the 21st.

[petersinthemarket] 25/11/2024 11:58

I dont really get this. On the 18nov the share price was c100p. After buyers jouned in, its now c119p. Are people really paying another 19p just to get a special of c10p.

[devonlad] 25/11/2024 09:11

looking strong for a move up to 130p now imho.

[s34icknote] 24/11/2024 19:02

Any one holding up to end of play nov 27 gets the div . So it will go xd at opening on 28 ! So 3 days to go .Am expecting the shares to continue rising to 130 plus by close of play Wednesday !A share paying 26.5 p a year at 115p I know shares that are 300p paying half that div !!!!!!!

[tygarreg] 24/11/2024 11:41

Can you still get the special divi if you buy on Monday?