Ithaca Energy Share Discussion Threads

[orange1] 18/12/2008 11:05

They could have decided to transfer to Plus and would not have been the first AIM company to do so.

[bearstalker] 18/12/2008 10:44

Orange, I agree - looks like its nicely being set up for being taken private.
After all when the share price is 3p they can offer a 50% premium and pay just 4.5p

Separate question: Presumably the company can still list and trade on PLUS?
or is PLUS a trading platform only and not officially somewhere you can list your company?

[orange1] 18/12/2008 10:19

So the company is concerned about the fall in the shareprice and decide that it is in the best of interests of shareholders to delist. And the effect on the shareholders? A further halving of the share price. Nice.

[sll] 18/12/2008 09:58

bear - probably, steve

[bearstalker] 18/12/2008 09:47

I wonder if they'll approach Cybit?

[tom306] 18/12/2008 09:38

But very good business if you want to take it private! The last set of results seemed to indicate that they might need additional funding. It will be interesting to see the terms - although we won't when it goes private!

[cheshiremoggie] 18/12/2008 09:17

Ouch!

The company is chickening out. Being a shareholder of a non-listed company controlled by a majority who can dilute you out of the company or play all sorts of games outside of public view does not sound like a good prospect. No wonder the price has tanked.

Shame.

CM.

[tom306] 18/12/2008 08:22

Lucky
It's even more speculative now!

[lucky punter] 15/12/2008 18:16

Tom
Not all places are as tough to operate in as Maryland. Ith will need to be selective and utilise those strong local partners. It will not be easy of course and that degree of difficulty is demonstrated in the share price. The UK business will recover along with wider economy so there is plenty of hope for the future but this is certainly not a short term punt and only for the brave speculator.

[tom306] 15/12/2008 13:14

The problem is that it is not easy to generate the level of revenues required to compensate for the loss of UK business from an almost standing start. The USA, particularly Maryland, is the obvious example - they have been in trials there for several years but as yet little to no revenue and that even before the current market difficulties. ITH may, only may, have some overseas potential but I doubt it is anytime soon.

[lucky punter] 15/12/2008 11:53

Some mistakes have been made, clearly they paid far to much for Trafficlink and the decision to pay a dividend when the company was not yet financially secure was just stupid. Saying that the company have a very desirable product and the world to market to so I believe the company will return strongly with the wider market. Car sales look doomed for the time being and ITH need to supplement this income from other parts of the business which really means they need to establish overseas on a fast track.

[tom306] 14/12/2008 23:11

Its really quite simple, Marks owns 31% of the company.

[martini111] 14/12/2008 20:49

Why does Stuart Marks say he is pleeased to announce.. such abysmal results. Should he not have said ASHAMED to announce.Some people, including me, think surely its time for a new management- I would not vote for Marks. Is he going to waive his salary? Why is this resolution not put forward as soon as posible

[cheshiremoggie] 30/11/2008 21:36

I notice that the TomTom share price is down from €61 to about €4.5 this year. The worry (among others) seems to be the level of debt held by the company. That makes the drop in this share look small(ish).

This recession will be an opportunity for some and the death knell for others. Which is which is rather difficult to tell at the moment but a high level of debt would not be a good sign - the complete opposite of the last 10 years!

CM.

[lucky punter] 28/11/2008 16:29

CM
Is the armageddon coming or has it been through already. Clearly the issues have not blown through yet but we appear to be in quiet times.
I would suggest that even if there is more to come the market is now so low that it may have little impact. Greed and fear, where are we. My fear has greatly reduced and I have started to buy again but only very cautiously. The trouble is that many did not sell in the first place so will not be able to support the recovery with cash.

[cheshiremoggie] 28/11/2008 16:24

A good question might be : How are TomTom and Navteq going to be affected by the recession? TomTom for instance has a good deal of its business in the consumer hardware business. Are people really going to be buying these in the same numbers as before and will TomTom still be a profitable company throughout the depression.
Will TomTom be investing large sums in new business areas during the coming economic meltdown?
The coming armageddon will affect almost all companies I would guess and being large does not guarantee success - ask Citigroup.

Dont want to depress anyone though.

CM.

[tom306] 28/11/2008 16:02

LP
Don't disagree that a divi is not priced in "at the moment" (I didn't say it was) but it has been for much of the time since it was announced and yes a maiden does set up an expectation for the future. I think we also agree that current trading and cash show such any expectation for 2009 is likely to be misplaced.

ITH may or may not have potential but the market has been marking it down consistently for over a year now, despite optimistic noises about the international opportunites, so those who see it as a bargain still don't see risk/reward in their favour yet, you included. It will come down to whether or not there really is an international business model and if they can they get it up running and generating revenues and cash before TomTom and Navteq mobilise their own fast growing resources. I guess that is where we came in......

[utterly pointless] 28/11/2008 15:51

Yes... now at what point should I crystallise my (huge) loss... any suggestions?

[lucky punter] 28/11/2008 15:35

UP Clearly there is some interest and a small amount of persistant volume.

[utterly pointless] 28/11/2008 13:08

i rather think that the wider market is not thinking about itis at all... but i certainly agree with you that no-one with their head screwed on straight is expecting another dividend

[lucky punter] 28/11/2008 12:14

A dividend is clearly not priced into the share price at the moment and every holder must be expecting to get zero this year. The maiden dividend was to increase the profile of the company but it also builds in an expectation of the future. I often sell up when the company pays the maiden dividend because expansion costs cash and my investment strategy concerns growth not dividends.
I think the wider market views Itis in the current financial climate as a bargain because it will respond to economic recovery and recovery is never stronger than immediately after a recession.
You say that Itis now have problems in the UK but their business is much like an estate agent. In the right market its a license to print cash but when the market turns down they are hit hard. It does not make the business of selling houses any less profittable on the next run but clearly the time to buy in is when its on its knees.

[tom306] 28/11/2008 11:27

Clearly, the payment of a maiden dividend just when the company was using cash to buy Trafficlink was not the smartest thing the board has done. With hindsight, why was the entire Trafficlink acquisition in cash? Many thought at the time it was a sign of strength but I am no longer so sure. It could be they were negotiating from a position of weakness given the problems they now have in the UK.

However, the share price has benefited from the 1.5p dividend for some time. Now that the 2009 one looks to be in doubt and given the problems in the UK and falling overseas revenues, the current price is probably about right.

[lucky punter] 28/11/2008 10:33

Tom
I cannot see any reason to spread profits with a dividend when there are no profits to spread.
The overseas costs are based around forming the contracts and deploying the technology. This does cost money but is extremely small when considered against the reward. I am sure they are pushing on with the best of the prospects even if some of the more marginal markets have to wait.
They will definately have to pay more than 8 million as many of the larger holders are in at much higher levels. The market can see that Itis will recover strongly with market conditions and as such presents fantastic leverage for your cash. The recent drop has not put buyers off, the fear/greed balance is heavily at play in the markets and its tipping towards Greed.

[tom306] 28/11/2008 10:01

Whilst I agree they would have to pay more than 8 million, how much more will depend upon how high debt is at the time. There was nothing in the interims to indicate improved trading in the short term and whilst they are working with partners overseas, it is still not cheap to set up abroad, a fact they themselves have acknowledged. So unless they are not going to pay a 2009 dividend, it looks as if they may have to use at least part of the new facility.