Ironveld Share Discussion Threads

[ladeside] 03/8/2022 19:18

Give it up pal, you're fooling nobody.

[rec0very stock] 03/8/2022 18:04

"the little extra bits / white lies in with the factual stuff which really does make me question his motives."

Rather than question my motives why not do some research and post a coherent, evidenced counter argument eg how you arrive at an MCap of £30-40m when there is no DFS and the one we do know a little bit about suggests about £8m. Ie have an adult discussion, which we can all learn something from. See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil does not improve anything.

Have you found the tweets from real landowners - I agree the reincarnation of Steve Biko is just a trouble maker and most probably not one of the farmers living off the land IRON wants to strip to get at the resource. Maybe even contact them and find out how many of them there are that will need to be relocated and compensated for loss of livelihood, they also might know something about electricity prices and the frequency of power cuts in the region.

Glad you are enjoying the ride now - you weren't so sure the other day after you topped up and the share price crashed further straight away.

When the going gets tough does GC roll his sleeves up and sort the problem out or does he call the broker to get another discounted placing underway and not give a toss about what shareholders think or even how they vote to give him the authority to issue the shares?

[ladeside] 03/8/2022 16:04

Paraguay was the dream with Fenix seen as next best but of course it ended up as Colombia and Plat being our cash cow / workhorse which ended up paying the bills and keeping us ticking over, who's to know what could have happened if any of the others came off.

The pipeline was of course the big anti climax / let down which we waited so long for but which ultimately turned into a damp squib.

Ironically it was adverse circumstances at the time which led to me selling much of my holding between the 40p and 60p mark but of course with hindsight I was VERY lucky considering what we ended up with.

I actually agree with much of what Recovery posts, however he always lets himself down by adding in the little extra bits / white lies in with the factual stuff which really does make me question his motives.

I'm not going to sit here and quote silly numbers or expect pie in the sky future valuations, however what I will do is say that should the smelter purchase complete and the refurbishment proceed as planned, then we should be looking at a mcap of around £30 to £40 Million+ as we commence production with the caveat of no further skeletons appearing (such as Recovery's mystical Zulu warrior landowners on the warpath).

The above would obviously give us an share price at current shares in issue of around 1p or just over which is WAY below most of us hoped or expected, however as Recovery likes to point out it's about risk / reward and whether you want to cash up your chips and crystalise a loss, personally I'm happy to stay in and "enjoy the ride", it's not life changing for me one way or the other so let's just see how it all pans out.

On the potential left field positive side we could end up with an early stage take out by Glencore / Chinese for a premium on the £40 Million, so who knows ? I'd also expect further offtake agreements to be signed and who knows, Grosvenor might even surprise us all !!

[rec0very stock] 03/8/2022 15:59

"gone bust the way it was under GC during the long period of low POO thoughout 2020, as a minimum the dilution would have been on a par with what IRON has just seen"

There is no parallel universe, so we will never know what would or would not have happened in 2020 under GC. I was annoyed too with my 30% at the time, as I felt that did not reflect the value of what was in the ground. But resource in the ground is worth nothing, if you can't get it out and to the people who are going to pay for it.

[bigwavedave] 03/8/2022 14:46

I very much doubt AMER would have gone bust. Not at all, actually.
But we got sold before the best asset was realised.
At the last count the "new Amerisur", at the Indico field alone, was chucking out circa 20k bopd from just four wells.
At the time of sale, a fraction of that was going through the legendary oleoducto.
Hey-ho!

[rec0very stock] 03/8/2022 13:27

bwd,

I suspect AMER would have gone bust the way it was under GC during the long period of low POO thoughout 2020, as a minimum the dilution would have been on a par with what IRON has just seen. Any producing oil company that is not throwing off stacks of cash with POO north of $100 really is not worth investing in (UKOG - one that TW attacked, having been quite pally with Dave Lenigas for a short while).

POO has come off its $120 highs. Where it will go from here depends on a lot of global factors. I don't have any exposure to POO - I was still thinking about the best way to exploit it when Vlad did his number on Ukraine and a number of companies lost their assets - Thankfully I have no exposure to any Chinese or Russian assets.

[rec0very stock] 03/8/2022 13:12

A totally worthless observation on company management: It is not how they crow when things go well, but how they roll their sleaves up to sort out the problem when things go badly that is the mark of a company that you can invest in's management.

[bigwavedave] 03/8/2022 13:05

AMER didn't pan out so well for me, unfortunately. I wonder what the share price would be now, had the company not been sold? Way north of the 19p we got, judging by some recent numbers...Anyway...I see Peter Cox has put his hand in his pocket for some shares. I wonder whether GC, NH or even Wardle will now increase their positions.I think IRON could do ok now that the placing has been done and there is a more definite plan in place. Jennings will play his cards but I suspect GC is the better poker player.

[rec0very stock] 03/8/2022 12:15

LADESIDE,

Well done on your 30 bagger on AMER - I made 30%.

We all need to make our own decisions based on our own circumstances and risk appetite.

I am enjoying the ride here. I am retiring next year at 55 with a property and share portfolio, which will fund my enjoyment of that retirement.

I wish you all the best with how your life pans out. I do find you most entertaining because you remind me so much of how I used to be - I did not recover from the mistakes I made through a 30% here and a 30% there. We all learn the most from the mistakes that cost us the most and as my experiences have cost you nothing, please feel free to consider them worthless.

[ladeside] 03/8/2022 11:53

Life is full of things which make no sense from a value and cost perspective but that's just life and as such all your "in depth" calculations mean absolutely nothing.

Only an idiot would buy Bitcoin.

Only an idiot would choose to fly with BA in a short or mid haul flight (and especially in business class).

Only an idiot would buy an Electric car at the ridiculously over inflated prices at the moment.

These are just a few but there are literally MILLIONS of examples of businesses which SHOULD fail or SHOULD be valued much, much less, however as long as there are humans involved then pretty much ANYTHING is possible !!!

[ladeside] 03/8/2022 11:48

If I had listened to all your inane ramblings about GC and NH etc prior to investing in Amerisur, then I WOULDN'T have had the 30 bagger that I got !!!

Just think about that for a moment.....

[malcolmmm] 03/8/2022 10:44

TW, still at it I see, he phoned me about 20 year's ago. I dont trust him and his chocolate pizza's ugh

[rec0very stock] 03/8/2022 10:24

Trading and investing are different, but not mutually exclusive (shorting a stock you own does make sense as does trading in and out on the waves, if you can call them right). Investing is all about risk / reward balance. Trading (long and short) is all about guessing what the share price will be at some future point in time. Just don't forget what you are doing at any particular point in time - buying like a trader then holding like an investor (averaging down) is a sure way to pay for lots of investing lessons / pay lots for a lesson.

I like to think I am now quite good at investing, but still have a way to go on trading (I did ok on my Mon close bid price prediction - but it was fairly obvious which direction it was going to go). Can I be bothered to improve my trading so I can do more in retirement - possibly, but I hope to have much better things to do with my time and the money from my share and property portfolio to do them.

[rec0very stock] 03/8/2022 10:07

Although I have learned a lot from lots of mistakes over 20 years searching for gems at the bottom of the cesspit - a fairly futile activity and I only have a few small holdings left in most now, and from going through a shareholder activism phase - another fairly futile exercise, I don't and will never know everything, but can always learn more through adult discussion.

Adult discussion cannot be achieved through bite sized tweets - a key reason why the world is in the mess it is in is because there are so many influential people who are not engaging in adult discussion about some really important issues but are tweeting about them instead.

DYOR involves scouring all potential sources for information which either supports or detracts from the investment case - which if you are investing and not trading, has to be done on a risk / reward balance, if you are not to end up mug punting. That involves critical analysis of some very long documents.

I fully understand why people make the decision not to invest in the stock market at all or leave it to professionals that take their cut and have their own motivations and are often no where near as professional as they would like you to believe. For those who do decide to do it themselves and want to play at the bottom of the cesspit - best of luck, just think of the losses you make as paying for investing lessons, but don't then forget to actually learn from them.

[purchaseatthetop] 03/8/2022 09:36

Chopper harris. Because it is a wonderful hobby of research, analysis and discussion.

[chopper harris1] 03/8/2022 08:53

Your posts are far too long for me to bother reading but I’m sure they’re full of common sense.

I’m just a bit bewildered that someone with a holding worth less than a hundred quid should be bothered to spend so much time on this thread.

[rec0very stock] 03/8/2022 08:12

I think the above is enough on risks for now - what to add for the unkown unknowns is up to individuals. But with a seemingly growing number of people who are motivated for one reason or another to attack the company (including Steve Biko's reincarnation) I would put in quite a bit for those.

So what about the reward - we really don't know because we don't have a DFS for this project and we don't have the full DFS for the 15MW project.

15MW - EBITDA of £8m per year at project level. Knock off those PLC costs and that gives £7m.

7.5MW call it £3M - it is going to be less than half. Knock off those PLC costs - £2m . Knock off £500k for ongoing smelter repayment over 10 years. £1.5m

If it ever gets to be profitable, E of £1m ie not BITDA. P/E of 8 is about right but could be less. MCAP £8m with 3Bn shares (will be at least that if Broker Warrants are exercised and it is clear they need to be to provide the cash) gives share price of 0.27p. 4 Bn shares in issue (much more likely figure) 0.2p.

All that risk and at the end of it all, if the risks do not materialise, the juice is not worth the squeeze.

I am happy with my 27k shares as I am enjoying the ride. I won't be "accumalating" / averaging down / mug punting.

[iceagefarmer] 02/8/2022 22:52

i remember when eurasia fell to 0.2p then boom! the chinese or glencore will snaffle this minnow up soon..keep accumalating

[rec0very stock] 02/8/2022 22:23

Just enjoying the ride and passing on my experience in adult discussion.

[aceuk] 02/8/2022 21:32

Rec you talk common sense but I still have a lot of trouble discerning your motive.

[rec0very stock] 02/8/2022 21:12

I agree entirely wrt what TW ramps and he is a massive hypocrite when it is pointed out to him. It is what he does to companies he does not like that is the problem. The probability that IRON will end up with its Nomad resigning go up by a multiple of 4 if TW decides to take a real interest. He often does not see eye to eye with RJ, so if RJ decides enough is enough and he is going to stop damaging his own investment, that won't stop TW. Most of the companies TW sent early to the graveyard by getting the Nomad to resign (CTAG and FRR spring instantly to mind but there are a whole load more) would have ended up there eventually anyway - TW sees it as saving those who would have continued to average down money by giving them their 0p early.

[rec0very stock] 02/8/2022 21:01

Yep you are right he has bought nearly 6m shares in a company where he completely distrusts the manangement (I agree) and has said will need to do another placing in 2023 (I agree). The dilution has been massive - I was thinking it was about 50% but it is actually nearer 55%, maybe he is intending to get back over 5%? I won't be averaging down my 27k shares though.