Ironveld Share Discussion Threads

[purchaseatthetop] 05/10/2022 12:31

Al101. The DCF risk beta is how capital asset pricing mechanism and DCF assess how much extra to add onto the risk free rate for calculations.

The historical expenditure simply reduces this beta as it gives some elements of sureness, not certainty, that some risks are lessened.

[al101uk] 04/10/2022 22:17

purchasethetop,

Please explain how the Beta of a stock is changed by a companies historic capital expenditure?

[iceagefarmer] 04/10/2022 17:03

bought in today..long time out

[malcolmmm] 04/10/2022 16:53

Woweee now all they need to do is mine something, will that happen?

[ladeside] 04/10/2022 16:01

Things are starting to happen.

Watch this space.......

[purchaseatthetop] 04/10/2022 14:12

Al101uk. All that stuff in post 7075 simple adjusts the risk beta value in a DCF valuation. The discounting percentage is already high and makes any real value very difficult to justify.

[rec0very stock] 03/10/2022 16:25

IRON does not have a deal on the smelter, just the hope of a deal on the smelter.

RNS 31/8/22:

The only condition precedent in the SPA is the signing of a Debt Purchase Agreement between Ironveld Smelting and the sole creditor of FCF for a total of ZAR 115 million (approximately GBP5.75 million) and this condition precedent is expected to be completed in the next two to four weeks.

It has been over 4 weeks. Could it be the creditors have done / are doing proper due diligence on IRON's ability to make repayments? That is what creditors do before signing up to provide debt.

No DPA means no smelter, just cash to pay all the PLC costs until that runs out delivering no value at all to shareholders. Ie more of what they have been doing for the last 8 years, what they currently have might keep them going for up to 4 years. In this circumstance the company is worth a discount to cash in bank. Fixed assets, especially capitalised exploration costs (what £24.207m of the assets in the interims are), are worth what someone might be prepared to pay in a fire sale - SFA and NAV in the interims is an illusion. This is the long slow drift to 0p scenario.

If there is a DPA it will have a lien over the smelter so if the repayments are not made it will be repossessed (how the creditors got it in the first place). There is about a £6m funding black hole to get to a point where repayments could be made from operational cashflow.

It is all about risk / reward:

What are the chances the DPA does not happen so there is no smelter?

What are the chances that DPA happens, but no mining happens and therefore no repayments are made making the smelter worthless to IRON when it is repossessed - the fairly quick to 0p scenario.

How many shares are going to need to be issued to get to a cash generative state that produces a positive NPV? as the total number of shares is what you will need to divide that NPV by to see the reward. Is the juice really going to be worth the squeeze, assuming there is any juice at all, ever.

[al101uk] 03/10/2022 12:41

What I provided were just raw numbers and they can be interpreted two ways... the way that Malcolmmm & purchasethtop were always going to read it or...

If you look at last interims the balance sheet showed £20 million of net assets, that would be pre-4 million placing, so it's against £28.7 million capital injected.

It's not impossible to imagine that Ironveld got a good deal on the smelter and even if it's not worth the full re-insurance value it could be worth 2x the purchase cost. Especially once refurb work has been carried out.

On that basis it could be argued that Ironveld are not only trading at a huge discount to net asset value, but have generated balance sheet value for shareholders.

Obviously judging the legitimacy of that value and realising the gains is the difficult bit & the value of your assets make no difference if there is a liquidity issue.

[malcolmmm] 03/10/2022 10:50

They seem to be mining shareholders money and little else so far

[malcolmmm] 03/10/2022 10:48

Good way to make money, start a company ,sell shares every so often, make imminent rns to boast the share price every so often and pay yourselves fat wages. And nothing happens because they cannot raise a few million which their chairman could invest out of his back pocket, strange or what?

[purchaseatthetop] 03/10/2022 10:47

Tons mined. 0

[malcolmmm] 03/10/2022 10:44

Interesting, says it all.Look like a company run for the directors and insiders. Could well be wrong ,time will tell

[al101uk] 29/9/2022 16:23

I track this for some reason...

16/08/12 - £3 million Initial Placing

203 million shares for Acquisition of Northern Limb of the Bushveld Complex, equivilent of £13.7 million @ placing price of 6.75p.

Ironveld lists on AIM with about 250 million shares in issue.

The Market Cap at this point is around the £16.8 million.

20/09/13 - £1.575 million - Disposal of legacy Company
03/12/14 - Placing £750K
18/06/15 - Placing £1.5 million
26/10/16 - Placing £1.8 million
21/06/17 - Placing £2.1 million
27/11/17 - Placing £1.765 million
19/11/18 - PLacing £0.4 million
19/02/19 - Placing £1 million
26/11/20 - Placing £1 million
18/2/22 - Placing £0.13 million
13/7/22 - Placing £4 million

Capital Injected: £32.7 million

Market Cap: £7.09 million

[ladeside] 28/9/2022 15:31

MALCOLMMM, give it a rest.

[malcolmmm] 28/9/2022 13:43

10K invested here a few months ago would now be worth 2K A LOSS OF 8K .Using a stoploss 1K loss

[al101uk] 27/9/2022 15:31

I can safely say that Ironveld is trouncing my portfolio today :-(

[al101uk] 26/9/2022 20:45

Smiling happy locals... NO WAY... FAKE NEWS!

[rec0very stock] 26/9/2022 18:15

AIM delivered plenty of 0ps during the bull market. The bear market will eat lifestyle companies that have massive black holes in their funding and have never produced anything except bucket loads of shares for breakfast.

One day people will learn the hard way that there is no reverse Newtonian law that what goes down must go up and that you only lose if you sell is a lie. Until then keep averaging down at these crazy prices, the most you can lose is 100%.

[al101uk] 26/9/2022 13:02

Not much better at Kazera, they have new pigs to feed and so have tipped 1.8% of the company in to the trough in options at 1p per share with no other visible restrictions.

That means the CEO is just one peice of manufactured good news away from a nice payday.

[malcolmmm] 26/9/2022 10:46

4% drop today 0 as RS predicts is on the cards

[malcolmmm] 26/9/2022 08:19

Can you actually sell these?

[malcolmmm] 26/9/2022 08:11

All time low here from over 3p ,best to use a stop loss and buy free shares lower don if you must or leave your long time long and short to cover

[ladeside] 24/9/2022 18:08

There's absolutely NO CHANCE of wipeout here, irrespective of what happens.

Like everything else on AIM, the worst case scenario would just be further dilution.

Look at Andrew Bell over at RRR as a prime example of this and we're a million miles away from that sort of dilution or company mo.