Ironveld Share Discussion Threads

[ladeside] 19/9/2022 16:20

Everything is relative to your own personal financial circumstances and personal risk profile, so while I acknowledge that it can and may indeed go lower than this, I'm still more than happy to top up at these levels.

The bottom line is that I'm in no rush here, so if we can conclude the smelter deal in the coming weeks and get the refurbishment underway, then 0.27 will seem a giveaway in 12 months time I'd think.

It's certainly a gamble but one I'm more than happy to take, especially as we already have the £4 Million+ in the Bank and anything further (such as ANYTHING from Grosvenor) will be a major bonus as they've already been priced as a write off.

As AL says above, sentiment is currently against us and Management are seen as a failure but that can most certainly change and let's be honest there's still many in this game rate both GC and Eales, so I'm sure all is far from lost......

[malcolmmm] 15/9/2022 19:58

Down she goes, another buying opportunity? It was almost 500% higher a few months ago

[malcolmmm] 14/9/2022 09:08

Dead in the water comes to mind

[al101uk] 13/9/2022 16:35

Looks like PJ Cox, Martin Eales and Sipho Mkhize, not sure about the guy in the sunglasses. That's the CEO, Technical Director and the Infrastructure & Logistics consultant.

So you're right Ace, just the junior management team :-D

[aceuk] 13/9/2022 14:47

Management (junior) on site

[aceuk] 12/9/2022 16:02

Yes, I have thought several times it cannot go lower and each time been wrong. As an rightly points out the progression from over 10p to the current 0.28p per share has been mostly due to management incompetence. The only time it was not entirely their fault was due to an investment company management employed, so actually again is down to management incompetence :-(

On that basis I will continue to leave my much diluted and devalued holding where it is and not risk further addition until management itself is de-risked.

[al101uk] 12/9/2022 15:40

I think when you're a company in the early stages of development and pre-revenue your share price has huge volatility.

I think a newly listed company with Ironvelds acerage and relatively unknown management would have a market cap higher than Ironveld today. From that perspective I think Ladeside is correct.

I think a company that progressed from a standing start to where IRON are today, in a straight line, would be valued considerably higher than the newly listed company I describe above.

The problem is that Ironveld haven't gone in a straight line from newly listed to the smelter deal and when you look back it appears that some of the issues were self inflicted. That destroys sentiment and raises questions around if management are even capable getting this project off the ground.

If you don't believe in managements ability to execute in a pre-revenue environment, then the company is worth close to nothing (possibly the option value of management being replaced). That's where IRON are, it's unfortunate, but it also has real consequences for their ability to raise further money via equity. That's clearly visible if you compare the last placing with the first they ever did. Even adjusting for number of shares the company is deemed to be worth less now than it was when it first listed. I don't think anyone would argue that the company is in a worse situation now than then.

It's important to recognise that setiment can not only temporarily hit a companies shareprice, it can cause real harm to shareholders by diluting their interests to a far greater extent than would otherwise be the case.

I don't think you can look at sentiment and think "everything is now priced in" to the upside or the down. I think sentiment is always relative to where the shareprice was before sentiment changed the price. That means even if the assets are undervalued and the delays and failure are priced in... IRON can still go lower.

I guess the good news is that the further to the downside you get from a blank slate company with IRONs assets, the bigger the potential bounce should things come good. So as an option on sentiment there may be value in buying IRON now should you want to play that game. If you still believe in managements ability to execute then there is reason to buy/hold/add.

On the other hand, if like me, you don't want to play either of those games and just want to invest in a small cap miner that is incredibly cheap... it's probably still a waiting game but that's specifically because I don't want to make bets on sentiment, nor do I want to make bets on Ironveld managements abilities.

[ladeside] 12/9/2022 12:51

Delays and Failure are already priced in, hence our current mcap.

Only huge upside from here.......

[purchaseatthetop] 12/9/2022 07:14

My issue here is that nothing can happen until the power situation is sorted and this hybrid solution may never be possible or actually happen. Huge delays possible.

[malcolmmm] 06/9/2022 13:55

Well they have raised loads of money, have they done anything with it? no. Will they do anything with it? imo NO

[malcolmmm] 04/9/2022 20:00

There seems to be a lot of Directors for a company that doesnt do anything

Ironveld PLC Directors
Appointed Name Position
2011-08-09 Mr. Anthony Jack Leon DL Non-Executive Director,Finance Director
2011-05-23 Dr. Joseph Claude Dwek, CBE Non-Executive Director
2022-08-02 Mr. Peter John Cox Executive Director,Technical Director
2021-12-30 Mr. Charles Giles Clarke DL Non-Executive Director,Chairman
2012-08-29 Mr. Bryan John Neill Executive Director,Managing Director
2012-08-29 The Right Honourable Lord Joel Barnett JP PC Non-Executive Director,Chairman
2021-12-30 Mr. John Nicholas Harrison Non-Executive Director
2011-08-09 Mr. Simon Lebor Executive Director,Chief Executive Officer
2015-03-19 Mr. Terence Michael McConnachie Non-Executive Director
2019-12-26 Mr. Rupert Michael Fraser Non-Executive Director
2020-11-30 Mr. Vred von Ketelhodt Executive Director,Chief Financial Officer
2020-12-31 Mr. Martin Wentworth Eales Executive Director,Chief Executive Officer
Ironveld PLC Contact Details

[malcolmmm] 04/9/2022 19:44

IMO all the money will go in employees' wages, bonuses ,share options ,payments for the licences and farmers rentals and maintenance of the land etc etc I give it 12 months.

Key Executives
Name Title Pay Exercised Year Born
Mr. Martin Wentworth Eales CEO & Director 175k N/A 1972
Dr. Peter John Cox BSc Min Eng, Dip Civil Eng Technical Director & Director 101k N/A 1955
Said Izagaren Sr. Account Mang. N/A N/A N/A
Ms. Keneilwe Ndala Chief Exec. Officer of Ironveld Mining N/A N/A N/A
Mr. Thamaga Mphahlele Chief Exec. Officer of Ironveld Smelting N/A N/A N/A
Mr. William Brian James Sec. N/A N/A N/A
Income 2021 2020 2019
Turnover 0 0 0
Cost of sales 0 0 0
Gross Profit 0 0 0
Operating Profit -£783,000.00 -£695,000.00 -£629,000.00
Pre-Tax profit -£465,000.00 -£1.02 m -£625,000.00
Ironveld PLC Company Background

[al101uk] 03/9/2022 17:25

Last news from April from The Great Geraldo over on the AMER thread:

The Indico oil field in the CPO-5 block, currently producing over 19,000 bopd gross by natural flow and from just four wells, ranks as one of Colombia’s top 10 highest producing oil fields.

The Indico field (discovered in December 2018) continues showing strong reservoir performance, as shown by the Indico 1 well that is still producing 5,200 bopd by natural flow with a 0.1% water cut, and has accumulated production of over 5.5 million barrels of oil.

The new Indico 5 development well, currently being tested, is producing 4,000 bopd (on a restricted 34/64 inch choke) of light oil with 0.1% water cut. The drilling rig is currently being moved to spud the Urraca 1 exploration well in April 2022, testing an exploration prospect in the northern part of the block, next to the Llanos 34 block.

Geopark use Amerisur as a case study in their latest presentation from June...

• Successful takeover in 3 months
• Full repayment expected by end of 2023
• Increased 2P reserves 109% in CPO-5
• $150 MM Net Cash Flow from reserves (‘20-’22e)
• Fully-funded by production

So their purchase paid for itself in something over 3 years.

[aceuk] 03/9/2022 16:47

Thanks bigwave, I saw something on GKP doing very nicely the other day and just tied the 2 together, obviously erroneously ☹

al101 I don't really know what to make of Jennings/Align either - the guy blocked me on Twitter when I told him as he'd been trounced at the first hurdle he obviously didn't do planning. But then, must admit he's got a lot further in life than me!

[bigwavedave] 03/9/2022 13:28

Ace -I think you have the wrong ticker. It was Geopark that bought AMER, not GKP (which is Gulf Keystones).And, yes, the AMER assets are doing very well now (last time I looked). Much, much better than when they were sold off.

[al101uk] 03/9/2022 13:22

Ace,

Ah, yes. I've said before, Kazera are similar, they moved quite quickly once GC left. Although we'll see if that speed of progress continues as it's gone a bit quiet after that first flurry of RNS's.

I'm as baffled as you on Tracarta, I was sure JW was using money he was being being paid via GC at Amerisur to buy Ironveld, but that doesn't tie up with his latest purchase.

It's not like JW has seen much success from his investment so far, equally he hasn't bought any for ages so why now? :-/

[al101uk] 03/9/2022 13:17

Ladeside,

That's the thing about high risk shares, they are also high reward and you could easily multibag if only a few of those possibilities come to pass. If Ironveld was clearly a minimal risk investment then the company would be much closer to the eventual fair value we all hope Ironveld is currently nowhere near.

The question really isn't if there is a large amount of risk and reward, it's how IRON are priced vs that risk/reward. I think the price is pretty fair for a small investment if you're willing to take on the two extremes that Ironveld offer.

I'm not there yet, I'll accept a lower reward for a more derisked company, but as I've said before, they are heading in the right direction.

[ladeside] 03/9/2022 11:56

If they "don't do anything" then how on earth could they burn through £4.5 Million in "a few months" ???

I'm quite happy to discuss the share and the potential positives and negatives but that's just utter nonsense.

However, since we're getting all the negatives out there it's perhaps only fair that we mention that the deal might indeed conclude as expected, the refurbishment will complete as planned and production could be only 8 or 9 months away. Grosvenor might also come through with additional funding at a new negotiated price above the current share price and we may sign further offtake agreements.

All to play for here at 0.28, that's for sure !!!

[aceuk] 03/9/2022 10:18

Wasn't Amerisur sold to GKP for not a lot and GKP have since done quite a lot with it? For somebody allegedly with long vision Clarke didn't have it there .... have to be honest, I'm a bit baffled by Wardle/Tracarta

[al101uk] 02/9/2022 23:07

Is there a story there Ace, not followed Gulf if that's what you're referring too?

[malcolmmm] 02/9/2022 10:40

If they dont do something soon, which imo they wont, then the cash will disappear in a few months. Then they will repeat the process.

[al101uk] 02/9/2022 10:18

"The reality is that we have a mcap of £8 Million with over £4.5 Million sitting in cash, as such I feel the "risk" here to be extremely minimal at current valuation."

But that isn't the full story.

The best case over the next few months is that they end up with £5.75 million of debt and enough cash in the bank to get them to production if they can hit every milestone and don't run in to any delays or snags. They have to have prodcution costed correctly to ensure that they can meet their debt obligations. Those are debt obligations that haven't even been negotiated yet. It could all work out, but that doesn't sound remotely close to risk free to me.

If they can't negotiate their debt obligations to suit their projected cashflow then the whole deal could still break down and investors may end up having to sit and watch as the company slowly burns through that £4.5 million while trying to find a new deal. That option sounds far from risk free too.

Of course the company could be sold to realise the value of it's assets, but that's been tried and failed previously and the company hasn't made significant enough progress to make me think it would be different this time.

I stress that I still think the company is in the best position it has ever been, the closest it has ever come to getting itself to production and the market cap is probably at or close to an all time low. So on a relative basis, Ironveld is lower risk than it has ever been. That doesn't make the risk minimal.

[purchaseatthetop] 01/9/2022 13:26

If you see GIles as a sociopath you cannot really go wrong.