Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[bocase] 27/7/2017 10:29

Hammerd2.

There is nothing wrong with rational discussion. I can't understand the technical discussions so a financial one makes a change though I very much appreciate those who do explain what IQE actually does..

[hammerd2] 27/7/2017 10:02

Do you ever sometimes wish you'd never mentioned something.....? Sorry everyone.

[petersinthemarket] 27/7/2017 09:48

Short Interest Tracker states short positions in
Ennismore 1.22% and Marshall Wace 0.5%.
Total 1.72%, no cause for panic.

[someuwin] 27/7/2017 09:37

From Today's Shares Mag - Over 15p eps??

"Optimistic forecasts seen by Shares imply the potential for a three to four-fold jump in current 3.7p to 3.8p of earnings per share (EPS) next year to 31 December 2018. IQE is sensibly playing down potential hype."

[toffeeman] 27/7/2017 09:23

re shorting:

FLYB is bizarre - major shareholder = Blackrock

Major short position = Blackrock

Now I can understand buying stock and then shorting when it hits resistance (I do that via a spreadbet)but I can't understand either the IQE situation or the FLYB :)

[richardc77] 27/7/2017 09:10

Yes plenty of debate about the iPhone 8, seems to have been subject to more rumours than any previous iPhone.

[deltrotter] 27/7/2017 07:57

This may also be of interest as well Sweenoid:



Particularly the 3d sensor part....

[gersemi] 27/7/2017 05:45

As an aside IQE gets a half page mention in today's Shares magazine

[gersemi] 27/7/2017 05:38

I suspect that the rationale that supports Ennismore's short position is based on the company's CURRENT financial fundamentals. The market cap is £770m. EPS for end 2016 were 2.71p, a fall from 2.9p end 2017. Shares in issue = 710m so the pe ratio is around 45x 2016 earnings.

A sensible man may surmise that Ennismore is betting that earnings for FY 2017 may not be able to justify this rating and that the price may have got ahead of itself....that maybe so or it may not

Maybe Ennismore is betting that expectations invested in IQE will not be satiated. That incomes and earnings will not materialise to support its valuation.

Personally, I see (assume or speculate) this company to be on the verge of an earnings explosion (2018 onwards) which of course I cannot quantify in writing but I am prepared to wait for and for which I am prepared to back my judgement with my capital

[mullaim] 27/7/2017 02:45

Not sure if this has been posted before but interview with Dr Drew Nelson.
hxxps://www.research-tree.com/companies/uk/semiconductors/iqe/research/edison/start-of-mass-market-vcsel-ramp-up/8720d256-e180-48f2-af98-92506c639180

[sheep_herder] 26/7/2017 22:48

Sweenoid, tell us your opinion on the shorts! ;-) where did all these 'ucktards come from?

Regarding the parasitic channel issue, where did we hear about that? Was it in a presentation? I'm pretty sure every manufacturer has solved it now in their own way.

[bamboo2] 26/7/2017 22:36

Re, shorts, in an uptrend this is surely a game [or stunt?] of 'guess the top' interim or otherwise. There is no argument for shorting this type of chart pattern unless in possession of insider knowledge, or alternative methods of covering. eg convertibles

[desperate dan] 26/7/2017 22:25

Importantly, traded daily volume has risen significantly since the trading update on the 20/07 (see below).

Shorted trades have been sold and the price continues to rise directly into the short seller's face. Possibly understandable as a hedge ... but??

[kazoom] 26/7/2017 22:19

Not disagreeing with you at all bocase, but it's just a tad amusing that we shouldn't be interested in the daily twitches , except of course when they appear to show a positive story. ;-)

[bocase] 26/7/2017 22:07

I can see no sense in shorting IQE. There are plenty of companies out there that have REAL competition and margins that are being eroded due to lack of barriers to entry.

Short positions are inherently dangerous especially with growth companies as each 1% rise causes more and more pain as the mathematics work against the shorter. For the long investor, each 1% is worth more and more as the price increases.

Yes IQE may get ahead of itself from time to time but as Warren Buffet says: "If you want to invest to get rich quickly then you will probably succeed in getting poor quickly." We should look at the larger picture and not worry about the daily twitches.

It was interesting though, today, to watch the daily twitches on the level two order book. Whenever the price fell a little it was met by immediate buying and that is a very good sign of investors waiting to pick up stock at the best price they can.

[tonsil] 26/7/2017 21:49

There will come a point in the share price when it will be tempting to bail out for a good number of people and if through a short position one can increase investor anxiety (nobody here knows what the share price has to fall to for it to be in the money) then it sort of makes sense. The very existence of the short position has a number of people on this board looking over their shoulders with a nervous twitch. It sounds to me that the shorts are succeeding with the first part of their strategy and when there is a negative swing it will oscillate more wildly.

[maxwellsdemon] 26/7/2017 21:20

Aixtron: Revenues and order intake continued to increase in Q2/2017

Total order intake including spares and service in H1/2017 came to EUR 128.5m, 34 percent higher than in the previous year (H1/2016: EUR 95.5m), reports deposition equipment manufacturer Aixtron.

Sequentially, order intake improved by 8 percent to EUR 66.6m Q1/2017: EUR 61.9m). This development was mainly driven by improved demand for Metal Organic Chemical Vapor Deposition (MOCVD) systems for VCSEL (Vertical-Cavity Surface-Emitting Laser), Red-Orange-Yellow (ROY) und specialty LEDs as well as power electronics and Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD) systems for the production of flash memory applications.

[lpavlou] 26/7/2017 21:18

Guys, don't take these funds for mugs. I'm sure Ennismore we're short when the share price was in the 20p's. My view Is that they have a position just below 3% and this is a hedge to protect part of their holding.

[bocase] 26/7/2017 21:08

Re. Shorts

All good explanations but we need not fear the short positions as the stock has already been sold. Either they will continue to lose more money as the price increases or they will close the short position and the only way to do that of course is by buying back the shares (good for us)

I think the most likely explanation is an emotional attachment to the position, ie they believe or more likely just hope that it will come good in the end and have not had the will power to accept the loss. ( I am sure we have all been there..certainly I have and it is just wrong as grabbing the first profit instead of letting the power of compounding do the work for us.) A successful trader's account will have many small losses and a few very large winners.

A short squeeze would be nice but at the end of the day the share price will be driven by earnings and future prospects.

[sweenoid] 26/7/2017 21:04

. Totally edited post , why bother?
S

[kazoom] 26/7/2017 20:32

No specific knowledge of what ennismore are up to but I think generically if you have conviction on your valuation, then when the price moves against you (and you retain your conviction) is precisely the time to increase your position, not to close it.

On the other hand I can offer options 4 & 5 (not suggesting I agree with them).

4. They are doing a pairs trade against another stock or market which they will outperfom IQE - whether the market overall goes up or down. IE a classic hedge.

5. They are insuring themselves against something - hypothetically if there is some kind of "black swan" event that might cause another stock to fall 10% but would cause IQE to drop 50% this could be a rational piece of insurance.

As I say I'm, not claiming that either of these necessarily apply, but I just think it's too simplistic to assume that a short position means that they expect / want / are trying to force , the price to go down.

[drobinson1991] 26/7/2017 20:31

Short selling is done for a number of reasons which can include diversification, hedging or even an arbitrage strategy. As well as this it could also be done via algorithms or even a strategy that shorts stocks that have risen by a certain percentage over a number of days etc. What you have to be careful of shorting is that there is a limited upside gain (price falling to 0, which will never happen) but an unlimited, infinite loss. When they try close out these positions it can become a very complicated game especially if there is limited liquidity (which isn't the case at the moment. Which could be why they decided to give it a punt). I keep an eye on the shorting activity and it isn't high at all IMO. I have also seen in the past where specific portfolio managers can hold a grudge on a business and will ride it out no matter what. I remember not so long ago an investment research analyst at Liberum capital who slated ARM holdings giving them a poor outlook all the time and look what happened to them!!

[bocase] 26/7/2017 20:15

Tangler 42: Yes I have been wondering why such a large short position was not closed when the price moved so far against it. It is inconceivable that professional traders would not employ stops. The first rule of trading is stop out your losers and run your winners as most of us are doing with IQE.

I too would be interested to hear other's views on these shorts.