Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[n3tleylucas] 05/7/2014 00:14

Hmmm... well done mate (gritted grinding teeth)

[festario] 05/7/2014 00:09

Hence why I just won £200 on David Luiz to score anytime!

Can you believe William Hills were offering 10/1 for that? Bargain!

[n3tleylucas] 04/7/2014 22:35

Drinking is not for wimps mate... it's one of the things I can attribute to even the most vile of rampers ;)

Brazil are like Chelsea, a lot of defenders score ;(

[mister big] 04/7/2014 22:13

Lunch , dinner , and drinking is for wimps ( the market never sleeps )
Short euro , buy dollar - buy iofina !!

[n3tleylucas] 04/7/2014 20:31

Oh stop it! lol

I can only do so much while I'm drinking mate ;)

What you reckon? Neymar 1st scorer at a skinny 4 or... James Rod @9.5? Hmmm

[mister big] 04/7/2014 20:21

Hi netley
Check out STM group !

[monet] 04/7/2014 19:57

Thanks serratia, works great.

[n3tleylucas] 04/7/2014 19:45

We need some bad news here, any chance?

[napoleon 14th] 04/7/2014 19:40

If I were managing this for a potential T/O, which the Chile situation favours,
I'd go for mobiles....
Better profitablity,
more units - so the risk is spread,
far less capex per unit so a build up is easier to handle
& if you're looking for a bidder mobiles are easier to duplicate elsewhere,
with less risk.

I'm not looking for a bidder, but ignoring that possibility in view of current circumstances would be negligence.
IMO, NAI, DYOR & WTFDIK?....

[rock star] 04/7/2014 19:25

Entering Q3 it is worth considering the key metrics around this business and where they are going forward:

Production:
Q1-

[serratia] 04/7/2014 16:24

monet -adblocker

[monet] 04/7/2014 14:54

Does anyone know how to get rid of these popup adverts on the right side.

[che7win] 04/7/2014 14:35

engelo,
I haven't posted much as we wait the next news.

I see many companies out there much higher than us with nothing like our competitive moat.

I also see a market looking eager to move to a higher level, the Dow broke 17000 last night and closed at that level for the first time ever. Stocks are recovering strongly from the last few months, IOF' feels behind the curve. This is a storming bull market right now, backed up with strong employment figures and a growing economy.

The Chinese economy also looking a bit better, hence commodities prices are starting to strengthen.

Right now, I think this is an opportunity, 75p feels about right, unless we get a company changing RNS. I have been in companies which have sat at a cheap price, then suddently they double, it sometimes needs a spark.

If we break 53p or so, we should move up to a new level, that's what I'm anticipating anyway.

Ultimately, I believe IOF is much more valuable to a bigger player with pockets. They won't look at what shareholders are looking at (what profits we are producing over the next couple of years). Instead, they will look at the technology, the competitive moat, the leases tied up in the most lucrative locations.

They will see 100 sites which can be exploited quickly with a cash injection - it's worth multiples of our current price IMHO to the right buyer.

To me, IOF's days are numbered, I feel a sale will happen in 12-18 months, original management in place will probably accept a strong take out price.

If we survive 12 months, I expect we should be trading between 150-200p so a
takeover at 300p would not be outside the realms of possibility at that stage if everything goes well.

The market isn't looking beyond the short term, all it takes is a $50 iodine price and 1000 MT with us sitting at Chile P/E ratios and we would be around 180p on fundamentals, more if iodine shoots up.

On production figures, I expect similar to last month plus or minus 20%. I feel IO#4 might do better than last month.

The two new plants 5 and 6 I don't expect will contribute much in July, maybe I will be surprised but I am expecting significant contributions from August.

I was surprised how much we produced last month tbh, 5 and 6 will bring a big change to those figures.

This year as I've said is consolidation before a step change next year.

H1 figures will be hard to read since there has been a total transformation from May onwards, costs also will be moving nicely downwards since the company is now focussing on all costs, the way it should be.

The mobiles are fantastic, we site them at the SWD wells, and any disruption then they can be moved relatively easily.

I like your comment about left field, certainly some of the AGM comments would point to that, as I've said, IOF is worth much more to outsiders than currently valued at IMHO.

Just imagine if a pot of money was thrown at mobiles, potential is huge for cash generation from this business and ability to rule iodine right inside the US.

DYOR.

[engelo] 04/7/2014 13:25

che: hope you're right but you would think that with news certain within a day or two that there would be some buying in anticipation. The production figs for JUne may well be similar to May, but even so would show consistency. The imminent commissioning of I05/6 should give us a production jump in July and even without mobiles production should improve steadily for the rest of 2014. The door to external sales is opening wide.

So feels like we won't motor even with one or more decent RNSs. What is depressing things? The iodine price must be a factor. From my PoV (backed by SGs hard work of course) the iodine price has a rosy long term future, and we are the only producer in the world who can cope with low prices.

However from the PoV of a hard pressed analyst he could say 'Don't understand the iodine price: it's impossible to predict. So best avoid this sector altogether.' All in all the mkt seems fixated on the past (takes time to forgive and forget) rather than the future.

What can overturn this negativity is of course profits and growth. The half year figs will help, but won't be inspiring: have high hopes of H2 though and projections into 2015. Also something out of left field would do no harm :-)

Meanwhile back to sleep........

[kattatogaru] 04/7/2014 13:00

Monty Panesar I din't think we should expect monthly updates, we were just told that there would be 'regular' updates as commercial discretion allows.

[che7win] 04/7/2014 11:01

nixonpaul,
you think that's funny, have a look at the MSMN thread Friday/Monday, he did a great job deramping, I did the opposite and bought a few, now out.

Always DYOR.

PS: This market is eager to push anything up with half decent news, IOF is very quiet, but that can change very quickly.

[superg1] 04/7/2014 07:46

Pheonixs

Generally the second half of the year is less active time for iodine sales.
Probably due to the Chile domination and it being their winter period where things slow up.

The key is inventories v the apparent reduced production, so in theory if production is to cause a tightening of the supply then it should really start to impact during in Q1 2015.

Although to end users it may become obvious a potential supply tightening is on the way.

Generally it seems SQM do 12 month supply contracts at an agreed price.

On doing a bit more digging that Copiapo company (pipeline) may be part of Cosayach and therefore belongs to them.

So Cosayach will have water at some point once the pipeline is complete, but obviously it will materially raise their opex.

[n3tleylucas] 03/7/2014 22:25

A lot of money is now moving AIM mate...

The banking crisis?

Arron?

Is this going to move?

[n3tleylucas] 03/7/2014 22:23

The forgotten share?

Needs a good ramp?

[che7win] 03/7/2014 19:52

Bobby,
Thanks for the MSMN heads up, I passed the first time on it, but made 40% since last week. Too good an opportunity to miss.

The whole market is on fire again, I'm sure IOF will do well on any sniff of good news.

[monty panesar] 03/7/2014 19:16

TMZ has doubled in last four months. Turnover expected to rise from £20m in 2013 to over £100m by 2017.

Good chance will be bid for in next 18months if it's digital plaster starts to get traction.

[cyberbub] 03/7/2014 18:57

A 100-bagger from 5p I hasten to add, not from 36p! :-o

[cyberbub] 03/7/2014 18:55

Well unfortunately I have sold 80% of my holding on the way up, but keeping the rest for the long term... plus topped up another 25K today... I hope for a 100-bagger in about 3-4 years...NAI

[nixonpaul] 03/7/2014 16:49

I envy you cyberbub