Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[woodpeckers] 21/4/2014 19:05

The point is surely that the business is now past it's infancy stage and is set to start rolling out. The possibilities for future production and profits are enormous based on iodine alone. With Lance back to drive this on I think we have exciting times ahead. Yes some people may well be "robbed" of their shares first thing tomorrow but they will end up in the hands of others who see the future potential of this company and are prepared to show a little patience. I will fall in to the latter group.

[crosseyed] 21/4/2014 17:31

Perhaps just slightly misleading...
there were 2 producing plants at the start of Q4 2013 and 3 at the end, so 5 at the end of Q1 2014 should surely be compared with 3 at the end of Q3 2013, ie a 66% increase!
Better not to have made that statement at all.

c

[woodpeckers] 21/4/2014 16:24

Just catching up on the last 9 days news and posts. Seems to me this poor BOD can't do anything to please some people! Great update rns out only a few days ago.....

"Our production teams have already started full-scale production operations at both plants and are pleased to be producing iodine at these state-of-the-art facilities. This brings the number of plants currently in operation and online to five plants, a 150 per cent increase over the fourth quarter 2013."

...and now they are being knocked for spending time and money exploring other avenues which could increase shareholder value! They continually make it clear what the business is about and "a 150 per cent increase over the fourth quarter 2013" is good enough progress for me there, but would I want them to overlook exploring other ways to increase profits? Absolutely not!

[angel of the north] 21/4/2014 15:50

I'm not concerned the management have spent time and money on preparation for the hearing that they obviously knew was coming. It shows that they are on the ball to take full armament to any hearing. This IOF request is massive in relation to others and care is being taken by both parties.
The fact that a 'Water Specialist' has been appointed to the board before any decisions tells me that IOF are prepared to the full and will reap just rewards.

[tim3416] 21/4/2014 15:44

I see the bashers are out in force again today! Anybody would think its results week and there were further shorts to close...

[frog1] 21/4/2014 14:24

I have never thought they would get the water permit. However, I am concerned they have spent money on consultants and a lot of management time, had a number of attempts and have recruited a water 'expert' to the board but still seem incapable of getting it right or calling time on the enterprise. The sooner this is clearly decided one way or another the better. The management can then get to grips what the business really is going forward and focus on that and stop geting distracted and wasting time with 'non-core' or blue sky projects.

[pmw777] 21/4/2014 08:46

Rock Star - I agree with you that the production figures are the most important thing to concentrate on.

I assumed that as soon as a big plant was built it was a licence to print money and every time a new one came on board the value of the company and hence the share price would increase. The issues they have encountered on getting the expected volume on a regular basis from the two big plants so far are a concern. If this wasn't a concern going forward they wouldn't have needed a review.

this is the reason I became an ex shareholder. like everyone who shares the belief this company could be the major player in the iodine market, I just need concrete proof that these big plants can produce as expected on a regular basis.

I am happy to invest again once IOF are in profit and what they have built is doing what they are expected to do. Until then I will leave this share to the marketmakers, shorters, rampers, wildly optimistic, Mister Big and of course Shonny.

[baguette] 20/4/2014 22:58

What is far more important to me than production increasing is the ability to sell outside the Chem business. There was a brief mention of something like "first sale of raw iodine" but no quantity - it may have just been a few barrels for all we know. If we don't get to hear of a contract for sale soon of meaningful quantities, the cash will keep eroding whether capital is reduced or not.

[rock star] 20/4/2014 19:42

We will have to wait and see what happens with water in the Appeal in a few weeks time.

What is far more important next week is the update and the projections going forward in the iodine business as that is the business that has real revenues and generates real returns for shareholders.

The last production figures I am aware of were 62.5mt being produced in H1 2013. Broker research suggests total iodine production for 2013 was 175mt.This implies the average quarterly run rate for Q3 and 4 was 56.25mt.
With the weather disruptions in Q1 2014 I suspect we can expect similar production figures. The Chemicals business should have had a strong quarter. I believe the cash position within the business will start to rise during the current quarter now that the CAPEX phase has finished.

The biggest unknown at this time is how quickly IO4 and 5 can be producing meaningful amounts of Iodine. IO4 has the potential to be one of the best producing sites as it ticks the boxes in terms of ppm, volume and brine consistency.

We also don't know if IO2 oil contamination issues have been addressed by the operator or the brine variability in IO3 has settled down.

I suspect that things are steadily improving and it may well take a few more weeks to get the production above the 2t per day lower target production rate for the first 6 plants. I hope we get confirmation the IO6 should be operational in around 6 weeks time.

All in all the results should show the fundamentals are in place for this business to continue to grow at a significant rate over the coming months and years meaning Iofina become one of the worlds top iodine producers. The majority of the hard work has been done.

[bobbyshilling] 20/4/2014 19:28

Sg, post 19282,

'So I expect there will be an award of the permit, but maybe for a lesser amount. Then it's down to IOF to sell that amount within 12 months and that will evidence the demand. It is pointless having an 80k bpd permit if you can't sell it all'.

OK, that does sound logical if quantity asked for is the only barrier to the granting of permit so far. I should have expected though, that IOF would have sussed that out during the 60 days they had recently.

[jjoshaw] 20/4/2014 17:34

True but water supply looks set to be constricted in the not too distant future so,for me,it's a case of get in while you can.The demand for both commodities looks set to rise though.

[ammons] 20/4/2014 16:57

Fewer barriers to entering the water business too. Far fewer.

[jjoshaw] 20/4/2014 15:46

phoenixs,I did say "little more" tnan a formality,there always was some doubt,and I'm relying on the comments on this bb including feedback from presentations.I'm aware of the oil,helium and Atlantis possibilties but,for
me,they're pretty far in the background,though,as you say, they have potential.Amons,I briefly summarised my reasons above.There's less capex involved in setting up a water business.On the figures I've come across the profit margin looks better;from 7c to 20c opex v 70c to $2+(for hot)per bbl as against $10 to $28 opex for iodine v $40 to $65 per kg.With the water you just suck it outof the river.With the iodine business you're reliant for raw material on the oil companys schedules and can't necessarily guarantee either consistent volume nor ppm iodine content.I'd say a water business is simpler to operate and less prone to downtime,more predictable.The iodine remains a bit of an unknown for me though the picture should become clearer in Q4 afterthe review.

[phoenixs] 20/4/2014 13:06

jjoshaw, water permits are never a formality and i don't think the bod ever said that it was going to be. the process goes on and as you state, let's hope they do win. There are potentially a number of businesses/deals which could enhance IOF as well as Iodine. Water is one of them and I have seen mentioned helium and oil.
Who knows, but iodine is a very good business to be in at present and going forward will be even better.

[ammons] 20/4/2014 13:02

"Imo the water is potentially a better business prospect than the iodine."

How did you come to that conclusion?

[naphar] 20/4/2014 12:54

They have to win at hearing. If they lose at hearing they could still take it to appeal.

[jjoshaw] 20/4/2014 11:01

Imo the water is potentially a better business prospect than the iodine.cheaper to set up,control over supply(unlike the brine),better profit margin,a simpler technical process,so less to go wrong.Pretty disappointed with the knockback,especially since the granting of a permit was touted by management as little more than a formality.Let's hope they win the appeal.

[diggulden] 20/4/2014 10:23

Iodine. That is all.

[uppompeii] 20/4/2014 10:03

Its not but its been talked up to the heavens here , sorry guys but it has. Lets hope the market sees it as non core

[phoenixs] 20/4/2014 09:33

I cannot see why the water, at this point, is really so important. Even if the permit is granted, there would have to be a large capital spend and Iofina would be a year or more away from making any money from it.
On the other hand iodine production is being ramped up through completion of plants and with IO6 due to come on stream next month, the profits are beginning to roll in. throw in the mobile units and there should be a business which in some months will vindicate Numis's share price target of 156p. That is not to forget the iofina chemicals division. By then the permit may well have been granted, there could be more iodine plants on stream and there may well be more plants coming on stream. the water permit may or may not happen, but quite frankly that will be icing on the cake.

[monty panesar] 20/4/2014 09:27

Any idea what happened to the water application they were going for in North Dakota? Has that been parked or is it going on behind closed doors?

[freddievas] 20/4/2014 09:14

Get with the programme Bronco.

[broncowarrior] 20/4/2014 09:01

When are we expecting a decision re water? Is there a legally required time for the water board to respond?