Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[johncsimpson] 10/12/2013 11:08

Can't argue with that frog1. Solid, reasoned logic but keep yourself posted here . . .

[che7win] 10/12/2013 11:04

I don't excuse IOF for the towers issue but I blame past management who stated the issue on August 1st, surely enough time to mitigate the problem.

I have said before, I feel the present management are very much in the 'under promise and over deliver' style of presentation, this I hope becomes apparent next year.

[roundup] 10/12/2013 11:03

No, superg1, the buck stops right in the middle of the table the BOD sit around. The market won't allow them to blame another company for their failure. The share price is now reflecting the market response to that failure.

[frog1] 10/12/2013 10:45

I had considered investing here but at the moment it reminds me of the early days in Dragon Oil and so I am holding off even though I like what the company is trying to do. Dragon seemed to produce RNS's with targets and successful drilling results, but no one knew what the fall off rate was for producing wells and so weren't sure about total production. The company's reluctance to give actual total production figures in their RNS's spooked investors and the share price remained depressed for a long time. No one really knew if they couldn't or just wouldn't provide the info. Eventually they started giving real production updates and the revenue figures spoke for themselves. It was a 10 bagger for me, but took a long time and was very frustrating in the early days.

So for me, I need actual production figures or more revenue figures before I pile in. The revenue figures will come with the results but is always at least 6 months behind, so it is the lack of actual production figures that is a concern that stops me taking the plunge. If they say record Iodine production, they must know what it is so why not say what production is. Witholding that info spooks potential investors. I think the market (including me) just need that bit more confidence to take the management more seriously and 'hard' production data would provide this. The lack of real data also gives opportunity to people who provide no actual data to talk down the share, as does the inevitable delays in the water rights, planning, delivery and build. Anyway, it may mean we miss some gains, but I think more hard data is needed from the company as today capital preservation is still more important than capital gain.

[superg1] 10/12/2013 10:37

Roundup
If a supplier says yes 'no probs will get them to you' and then doesn't there isn't a lot you can do about it.

Businesses make such promises to secure customers, such is life, every business does it. So all IOF did was make a judgement on a supplier promise.

I doubt the supplier will get another order, if IOF have sourced other future suppliers.

But then if io2 is on good rates, with io3 doing the same, in theory they should be near that 700mt yearly rate anyway.

I've no idea what they are on, but if they are near the 700mt then it shows the full 6 would be a different picture.

Water business to come, and it will come.

[ijpax] 10/12/2013 10:37

Lib, I found it hard to believe that the institutions had not changed in the last month, so I went back and checked. They hold 72,265,341 now, but on the 10 Nov they only held 72,247,114. So they've also picked up a few extras ;)
Great to see they are confident of the good news to come.

[roundup] 10/12/2013 10:27

CC: I appreciate your comments and go along largely with what you say, but I would much prefer they said that their aim was to have 6 plants completed by year end, but due to the nature of the build, delays are likely. 50% of their promise is not an acceptable achievement.I do not understand why directors of most companies tend to over promise and under achieve. There is nothing will knock market confidence more than this policy.Having said that, I am holding a substantial amount of shares and I do have high hopes for a generous return on my investment in time.

[timbo237] 10/12/2013 10:20

MD - Wildly optimistic? They are running behind on IOF 4 because of late delivery of towers from a supplier - which should be resolved in the 1st qtr of next year. How many oil/gas/commodities companies fall behind with spudding/drilling etc by much greater timescales than IOF - even the likes of BP/Tullow. So to come out with a statement of 'wildly optimistic' is just plain ludicrous.

[shonny] 10/12/2013 10:13

Too many starry eyed dreamers here.

[johncsimpson] 10/12/2013 09:52

Hang on. Let's put this into context.

Not wishing to prejudge the rest of the year but SHONNY, praise be his name(s), has, so far, got it 'right' for a period of about 5 minutes within his time span of months of 'de-ramping'. The price being nearer a £1 than £2 prediction was clearly made for year end along with several others that keep changing as the price moves one way or another. (A 30% move over the past week or so re one prediction). If you give yourself enough options you can't fail. In three more weeks, he just may be right but we're not at year end yet so any congratulations / apologies are somewhat premature.

[captain_kurt] 10/12/2013 09:46

Interesting comments H. When I spoke with Paul Chase-Gardener at the last IOF meeting he hinted they where looking at a full UK listing for a number of reasons.
Anticipation of triple digit growth and increased visibility for UK and International funds.

Booker (BOK.L) moved from AIM to a full UK listing in early 2009. Their share price has since almost increased 10 fold as the company has grew it's profits and dividends each successive year.

[shonny] 10/12/2013 09:39

Looks like it's going to be a sorry Xmas price for the ramping crew. Getting near my more realistic prediction every day.

[trav5] 10/12/2013 09:30

The share price has now fallen 32% in 6m's and the obvious question is how many additional plants were/are already factored into the SP?

[noli] 10/12/2013 09:29

Hurricane, UK or elsewhere

[festario] 10/12/2013 09:23

FV? Apologising to vermin like Shonny?Anyone believing that IOF will move towards 100p should quite simply sell their shares.I would be adding here today if I had funds available, which sadly I do not. It's well oversold now.

[crazycoops] 10/12/2013 09:17

roundup, the plant roll out is an engineering project and clearly there is execution risk. In this case, the delays were caused by supply of parts. I try not to lose sight of the bigger picture which includes the fact that IOF are already producing iodine from 3 plants with a further 3 plants to come online early in 2014.

[freshvoice] 10/12/2013 09:15

Sorry to Shonny he was right it is nearer to £1 than £2, hope it goes up from here.

[bobsworth] 10/12/2013 09:10

About time too!

[cocorico2009] 10/12/2013 09:03

gap @149 filled

[hurricane.] 10/12/2013 09:02

The AIM can be a tough place but who says iof are staying in the AIM dyor

Like a bridge over troubled water, it will soon ease your mind

[roundup] 10/12/2013 08:51

On 25/9 we were told that by year end IO#3,4,5,6 plants would be completed, and be fully operational.Then on 20/11 Commenting on today's news, CEO George Lantz, said: "Record iodine production coupled with production commencing at the state of the art IO#3 facility is an exciting achievement for the team. We look forward to steadily increasing production as additional plants continue to come on line."Is this trying to keep the company under the radar, or just plain, Over promise and under achievement.

[superg1] 10/12/2013 08:46

The pre xmas activity is normally a surge. However with the US debt issue starting it's merry tale in January and into Feb, I suppose the funds have that at the back of their mind.

All is not lost though, perhaps the xmas spirit will return, as I'm now reading that the US side may well get it sorted early and today a comment that it could be as early as the end of this week. I won't hold my breath knowing that lot, but they will be acutely aware of the own goal damage they caused last time around.

On the water front, as of a few hours back, things seem fine to me.