Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[crosseyed] 07/12/2013 12:05

che7win,

In post 12007, you mention an Investec broker forecast for Iofina. Do you have a link to that info?

Thanks,
c

[neddo] 07/12/2013 11:55

jc
be glad to have a pint with you if we ever meet, but tonight I shall be in my local , only a small local village pub, their will only be about 10 of us in their, roaring fire , a game of dominoes, and free grub later on, chip butties , who could ask for more, bought iof at 24,75, and qfi at 11.92, but iam a professional moaner?

[johncsimpson] 07/12/2013 11:31

post 12010 - Hit a lot of nails on a lot of heads there SG.

[che7win] 07/12/2013 11:29

Superg,
Seems a lot of interesting developments are imminent, the share price movements this week clearly look like moves to harvest shares from weak holders.

Pics for rival operations in Chile:

[superg1] 07/12/2013 11:25

Ansana

I heard the same rumour, and was about to post that lol.

Also

It's not confirmed, but there is a suspicion that the containers that arrived in recent days, are towers for io4, but that is a coin toss, but as it was clearly said kit was on the water, and some has now arrived from a Ukrainian company that make iodine plant kit, it seems likely.

Water, we say that is close and we do a lot of work on that but rarely mention it.

Anyone fancy a bet. I bet that engineer report that IOF mentioned, for the permit arrived on the desk in Montana at lunchtime on 12th August. So they hit that timeline as they said mid month.

I bet certain actions on the file were done on the 5th and 15th Nov.

None of that is from IOF or anyone connected to them, I have never contacted the bureau.

So when we try and suggest timelines in posts here. It's rarely guesswork, but based on 'guidance' given.

If that doesn't work out then it's down to the guys actually working on the topic not us.

In recent months in sounds like IOF were given guidelines on tower deliveries, but those slipped.

IOF told us by year end, but then it seems their suppliers changed timelines, so IOF let us know the timeline had slipped.

The latest timeline I have for the water permit is pre xmas, if I hear anything to suggest that has changed I'll post.

Rumours about a JV on water in ND are all over the place except on here.

That's not all that is being said.

Most threads like to multiple post an various websites for any rumour they hear, but they have generally heard it, and most often they are false.

[superg1] 07/12/2013 11:00

johnc

It isn't unique to IOF. There are a number if shares I'm looking at with near term revenue, or circumstances meaning they look like bargains.

Some relate to assets v market cap. Some are well below asset price, and near term prospects.

Then some others are on high prices with no sign of material revenue at all near term at all.

Bio's seem to be well out of favour, but some software type companies doing well on share price but not on revenue.

How can anyone forecast that a company with no profits or revenues for years, and no major changes will fly on the SP, but it is happening.

Boggle did a great post re 5 years. It seems true investors are very thin on the ground . Any investment site says an investment should be seen as a 5 year commitment.

The vast majority on many shares, seem to invest for a few weeks or months so are traders, not investors. Though they consider themselves investors, it's clearly not the case.

I recall reading up on the subject, generally getting in within 15% of the bottom and out within 15% of the top, is seen as success.

Every one seems to want or expect to buy at the absolute bottom and get out at the absolute top. That of course is impossible.

Patience seems to be an ignored word.

But then I'm just going about the posters on the various BB's and websites.

I'm sure we never hear much from the real investors, as they simply buy shares, and leave them sat there accumulating over the years, not having the slightest interest in short term moves. In fact many haven't a clue re their current position.

So as boggle says, he has told his guys think 5 years. Well just imagine where IOF could be in 5 years, with their business plan.

ASOS.

I have seen countless posts on dozens of threads of 'IF ONLY', most of those if only posts are people that actually bought ASOS shares, but got out in the pence range, most I've seen seem to mention 12p or less.


I haven't read one post yet anywhere that says, 'Hey I bought ASOS at the start and I'm still holding'.

12 year record.

Started at 23p and hit 3.4 p in under 2 years, 1 year after that it was 61p.

but form all the posts I've seen the early buyers were all out in 7 months at the 12p price

From the 61p it spent around 2 1/2 years up and down, mainly 60p to 80p, but at the end of that period eventually broke the £1 mark.

A year later it had flown through £2, then 6 months later £3.50.

6 months on £3.50 became £2.50 (Dec 08). A year later it crashed heavily through £4 and never looked back.

5 months later £5 had gone, then 1 month later £6. Then it goes daft in 5 months it jumped to £14, then £23 6 months later.

£23 became £12 in 6 months. £12 became £27 in 12 months, then 12mths again £60.

That brings it up to date. I don't think Scrut goes on about ASOS for the sake of price comparison, it's just an example of lack of patience.

If I take the 5 year view investors would have made 20 times their investment now, so those guys are very happy.

The point being there is no point going on about ASOS to traders. Most here are traders, although it has become obvious over time that we also have a decent amount of investors too.

Look at ASOS, would I have considered 12 years ago that online shopping would kill the high street, probably not, but I bet there were some posters predicting it. ASOS saw what they saw as a gap in a lucrative market and nailed it.

I remember two guys in the 80's. One enthusiastically banging on about something called the worldwide web and he tried to encourage me to get involved.
Another was a mobile phone nut trying to get me into that business, that's when they were moving from bricks to something that could fit in your boot.
His boss is now one of the top mobile phone guru's.

Bloody nutters, but hey ho they had done their work, and saw the WWW and mobile phone bonanza coming, and they are sitting very pretty.

Iodine is boring, but I had a look, and back in early 2011 it looked like a company called Iofina could really break into the industry, and in the future potentially dominate the market.

Nearly 3 years on, and the chance on that happening seems to have multiplied many times over. Not only that, the world's only supposed major resource is seeing significant problems and cost increases.

Iodine is being identified as a key component of various tech applications, being linked with both Graphene and Lithium. Other basic aspects of iodine use will continue to grow as there is no substitute for it in many applications.

If there was enough iodine about they would probably use it in all tyre manufacturing as the catalyst as it creates a superior product.


I'm going on as usual, but just pointing out most here are traders, but consider themselves investors (based on investment guidance on all financial sites)

[che7win] 07/12/2013 10:47

Ansana,
That sounds very promising, is that from the company?

[ansana] 07/12/2013 10:39

Received yesterday ...
"
one container from the Ukraine delivered to Oklahoma and have 2
more in port for pickup today. I cannot disclose the contents of those
containers.

IO3 production ramp-up has been, by far, the quickest we have seen. Our
operations guys did a great job of preparing to take over IO3 and it is
showing in the plant's production volumes"

[che7win] 07/12/2013 10:06

We are on a forward P/E of just over 10 for next year from broker forecasts.

If we get water, we should make another 50% in profit, surely around 22p EPS on broker calculations (much too conservative in my book).

The market isn't factoring in this growth, clearly it doesn't believe that management can rollout plants in a timely fashion.

If the share price was on a forward P/E of 20, we would be at a share price of 280p without water, 440p with water, so I can understand why shareholders targets for year end were higher.

However, with those broker notes being conservative. 14.42p EPS which Investec forecasts for next year to me covers only roughly 4 plants in operation.

Had those 3 plants forecast to be rolled out this quarter been achieved, we would have been at year highs.

That's my view, I can understand why we are trading in the current range and the prudent will be thinking IOF needs to prove itself on rollout.

However, I view the pessimism here as a plus, I also believe new management are going to over deliver on any of their statements and current delays are due to previous management.

If we do rollout 9 plants next year, we should achieve 2200MT run rate, about Eps 35p at $45 kg and 250mt per plant.

I think the current price is an opportunity for anyone looking beyond plant 4 as 160p only reflects 4 plants in operation.

We need those four plants and nothing else to reflect 160p. So the market has already priced in plant 4 at current prices in my view.

If you think we can rollout more than plant 4 next year, then you surely must think the share price will rise at some stage in anticipation of that rise.

I'm excited for that reason. Every time a plant is rolled out, we should rise 40p from plant 5 onwards to keep the share price at a forward P/E of 10.
At some stage, that forward P/E of 10 will move up to a forward P/E of 20 when the market prices in growth and discounts back to the current price. The share price will double at some stage to reflect the ongoing growth if it becomes visible and easy to forecast.
We're not at that stage yet due to the delays this year, if new management are seen to deliver, we will be rewarded.

My view in summary is if management start to deliver on plant rollout in a timely fashion, we will be a minimum of twice the current share price in 6 months time, that should look very conservative.

I remain very bullish, its all there for the taking, just confidence in management to meet self imposed targets needed.

Patience will be rewarded IMHO.

[johncsimpson] 07/12/2013 09:23

We all get cheesed off but three or four wonderful posts late last night.

Love the Seneca outlook on anger and frustration escape.

[festario] 06/12/2013 23:13

Escape, I wish I had not read that post of yours.
As now, I not only feel frustrated, but also very uneducated, ha ha.

[festario] 06/12/2013 21:46

Thanks JCS, I too must take it on the chin, which seeing as I have several of them, I have room for more later!

You speak of criminals out there trying to steal your money. I know very well of those people, in fact every other email in my inbox is from such a person.
I never really thought that a man in Nigeria really wanted me to have £165 million, but I thought I'd let him have my bank details anyway. After all, Mr Olibanjojo sounded very nice, and what's the worst that can happen?

Seriously though, I am just a little frustrated after making the lowest 'end of year' share price prediction of 200p for IOF.
That's all it is, and I was laughed at for aiming so low!
I was merely being realistic, but as it turns out, we need a 33% rise in 12 days to reach even that paltry level.

[superg1] 06/12/2013 20:52

Bobby

Some may imagine it to be an operation of intense activity, when in fact Montana is 3 times the size of England with a 1 mill population. It's rather spread out and things are pretty slow going up there. I bet it takes a fair time for the postman to complete his round.

So it is not the sharp-suited hive of activity, some may picture, hence when an oil boom arrives it catches them all by surprise. It really is the back of beyond, and they quickly to them is a different meaning over here.

I try to keep an eye on other permits, they don't look particularly over-worked for now.

[johncsimpson] 06/12/2013 20:25

Festario - I'm not smug or dismissive and I've been accused of that here before so I'll take it on the chin - again. I don't filter people not even the trolls; they're part of 'life' here. You have to accept it.

But what annoys me, what I can't get my head around is this constant 'I've invested so it has to go up'.

It just doesn't work like that.

Shares like cigarettes come with a warning.

Smoking can damage your health; shares can damage your wealth.

Just because you're a good guy, worked all your life, brought up and cared for a family, saved your hard earned pennies it counts for diddly squat.

There are organised criminals out there doing everything they can to 'steal' your money by fair but more likely by foul means. Then there are the legalised businesses who offer spread bets and all forms of leveraged products. There are countless stories of margins being triggered for just 10 seconds while the bet gets taken out. After that we have the likes of hedge funds that borrow shares (possibly yours), sell them, thereby creating panic so the market drops and then buy them back cheaply. I've not done a very good job with those categories but you'll get the gist.

So when those who are on this side of the fence to 'all that' keep on whinging, I'm afraid it's just adding succour to the 'other sides' cause and is detracting from the IOF story.

Just imagine coming on here the last two 'ends of day' looking to invest soon, to find hitsha's wonderful 'rubbish' posts. Ain't that just what we need?

Yes there are people with paper loses, but I sometimes wonder what their aims and objectives were when they 'invested' and what do they now perceive has changed? Did they phase buy or did they go for one big hit? Did they have a price in mind where they would get out if the price fell. Do they have an upside price in mind where they are going to sell? I know there's no one answer here; one size does not fit all.

Ignore me if you can't stomach these questions, filter me by all means, but please read mikkydhu's excellent summary post 11989 of earlier.

[bobbyshilling] 06/12/2013 19:58

That sounds real good SG, thanks for posting that. Re: water, I should have thought that the authorities would be well aware of IOF's previous application, and advising them to scale it down, taking extra time, so was thinking anyhow that they might go through the process a bit quicker, i.e. not make them wait the full 120 days before an answer, so we could well hear this month.

[the librarian] 06/12/2013 19:47

Ahh, I didn't say GKP are rubbish, just traded at every opportunity. Having your money locked away for months not knowing whether you are going to get anything at all back is rubbish (BRDY), not in there myself.

[superg1] 06/12/2013 19:44

Bobby

Indicators are water news could be close. It's no good saying, 'knew that' after the event, but I'm mindful of the balcony, we'll see, how it goes.

That arrival is 5 tonnes worth so it sounds like a tower or two.

[che7win] 06/12/2013 19:44

The more pessimistic this board gets, the happier I become.

The worry for me is when euphoria engulfs us.

[hitsha3] 06/12/2013 19:41

Sorry guys if i am boring you, but the share price is boring me and i am sure is boring you. Listen right now it is rubbish so it is. you have to agree with me with that.

[bobbyshilling] 06/12/2013 19:37

Hope so SG, up and running early Q1 if that is the case. Water news by end of Jan latest, then 45 days on top. Qtr 1 should be very good - but we just might get water news this month :)

[superg1] 06/12/2013 19:16

Oh by the way, the rumour was that kit was on the water from the plant suppliers in the Ukraine.

Something from the Ukraine company turned up for IOF in the last few days, my guess is the towers. So hopefully they can ship that off to io4 and add them on.

[superg1] 06/12/2013 19:13

I keep mentioning nano, but it is a well followed share with good prospects.

Just have a look at the chart, no real changes other than it gets closer to it's end goal as time passes, no bad news, yet it was near £2 earlier in the year, up and down just like others in the market.

[festario] 06/12/2013 19:09

Lib, GKP are indeed rubbish.... but guess what? I sold my holding there in the 140's when I got sick of the 'jam tomorrow' from them, and I added to my existing IOF holding around the 225p mark.
In the meantime, GKP have been up to the 220's, and IOF fell into the 140's!
Quite a reversal in fortunes wouldn't you say?
Some clever types might have SOLD IOF at 225p, and bought GKP before their rise, but mug PI's like me would never have expected GKP to outperform IOF over the last 6 months.