Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[garfield31] 10/12/2013 15:46

Frog good to know it is you. Have you looked at any of the NS oil companies although some political risk not as great as before I suspect.

[crosseyed] 10/12/2013 15:33

Presumably that FT price warning is the reason for the slippage in sp, though as phoenixs implies, lower prices may well be very positive for Iofina. I doubt that any of the institutional holders will be dismayed. I note too that Blackrock amongst the largest holders, at around 5%. They really do their homework, and market their analytical tools to many other professional organisations. This week's Economist has an interesting leader ("The Rise of Blackrock") and briefing ("The monolith and the markets") about them.

I cannot see that anyone who has done a modicum of research on Iofina would be voluntarily selling at present. But each to their own.

c

[frog1] 10/12/2013 15:33

Hi Garfield,

Yes I have always liked political risk as I think the market always takes more account of it than they should. In the end, people are people, and as the utilities have shown in the UK recently there is polical risk everywhere. I think in the past the market has had an arrogant view when it dealing with Eastern Europe, Asia or Africa. It seemed to view them as somehow worse or the risk as different from the US or UK. JKX was a share that 20 bagged for me on that issue because of fears in the Ukraine. I think since the banking crisis the market now recognises the risk in the developed countries is as high as in the developing countries. Since the last EM bonanza there are not many of those opportunities around and I am not in any now.

I have been looking for smaller companies to invest some risk capital in and that brought me to IOF. No political risk, so the whole focus of the market is on the company itself - technology, management and pricing. Given the apparent lack of transparency on production, I am just not confident to take the plunge big time in the way I did at Dragon and JKX, although I have now started to nibble a few small chunks at this level. I believe what's been published by the company so I think in the medium term the downside is quite limited, but given the lack of info and the delivery hiccups and reliance on a public body for the water permit, the short term may offer some better opportunities to pile in. If the potential is as I hope it is, there will be plenty of opportunity to make money if I wait even if it is then from higher levels.

[che7win] 10/12/2013 15:19

It still feels like there are a lot of margined holders in IOF.
It means the stock can be manipulated easily in this news vaccum.

[zendo102] 10/12/2013 15:19

Who is SQM trying to scare? Note: "Prices are generally opaque but..."


Iodine price warning for Iofina

One of Iofina' s (IOF) key competitors in the iodine market, Chile-based SQM (NYSE: SQM) - which produces roughly one-third of global iodine supply - has warned of weakening iodine prices as a result of rising global production. Iodine pricing is generally opaque but SQM says it expects prices to be 2 to 3 per cent lower in the fourth quarter than the third quarter, and 5 to 15 per cent lower in the first quarter of 2014 - implying prices of $40 (£25.45) to $45 a kilogram.

[n3tleylucas] 10/12/2013 15:14

"Well done to all those that topped up."

No, you can't have it both ways, either those who topped-up knew it was too high and kept quiet... or worse, they urged others to buy with their ramping while selling, to buy back lower.

Disgraceful behaviour.

[superg1] 10/12/2013 15:13

It took me a while to twig re recent info, but I worked it out to be the most likely meaning eventually. Should be coffee time about now.

[phoenixs] 10/12/2013 14:53

well, if that isn't a huge buy recommendation for IOF, I do not know what is. Others, with high opex will disappear and IOF with rapidly increasing production will happily take a much larger share of the iodine market.

SG. Scotch maybe more suitable!

[superg1] 10/12/2013 14:52

Well if Den has a nice strong cup of coffee right now, then that person may well get 'things' sorted as all it needs is a signature by my reckoning.

[king_roster_iii] 10/12/2013 14:47

SG, to evidence your "but then of course iodine prices dropping will no doubt just lump IOF into the iodine producer pot." See yesterdays headline in FT. Quite frankly ludicrous.

Well done to all those that topped up. When the reality of the iodine price situation and its implications for IOF wins through they will be seen as very canny buys.


FINANCIAL TIMES
9 December 2013
News Alert Company: Iofina PLC (IOF:LSE) Frequency: Immediately

Iodine price warning for Iofina

[superg1] 10/12/2013 13:44

Frog/trav good posts.

Frog

That is exactly the point that has been raised, not by me, but a few have.

Whether that will translate to more details short term is unknown. They will know what they have, and if they are sitting of a few big leases in final negotiations, that they don't want competitors to know about then maybe long term value will decide what they say now.

I don't think for a minute they are keeping ppm and bpd data back for the sake of it.

It just feels like in the current market circs that the tide has shifted in favour of the IOF business model, but then of course iodine prices dropping will no doubt just lump IOF into the iodine producer pot.

All of those with little knowledge on the subject, will just assume to steer clear in a falling market.

The fact is that if $60 to $70 per kg had stuck around, so would expansion in Chile. Chile over-cooked it as can be seen and now they are at prices they don't want.

That in the short term, is probably the best outcome for IOF, as now they know exactly what the Chile limit is. No matter how much the Chileans try to hide what they are doing, and costs, their actions speak volumes.

A bit of a head scratcher is SQM, they claimed to have such low costs, yet $50 and they have dumped mines. In theory if their costs were that low, they should have increased production, take the price down, and crush the other mines, who are on higher costs. Obviously a bit of BS in their earlier claims. What they didn't make clear to their investors was that some mines were depleting, and high cost. Hence the planned moves to new areas and high capex. The price drop killed that idea, so they closed the high cost mines.

The wave of closed mines, and others pulling back will turn the price during 2014.

The price point that we suspected SQM would buckle, is posted here many months back, $45 per kg.

[johncsimpson] 10/12/2013 13:42

mikkydhu 12150 - yup . . .

topthat 12149 - I'm not very knowledgeable about the way buys and sells get reported but I've seen the sort of anomaly you mention before when there's an amount of buying and selling around a 'certain' price. I can relate it somewhat to the minute by minute trades and how they are charted. It's often followed by a strong move as the trades level out, cancel out and then a direction is established. Seems to work better for moderately traded shares rather than well traded shares and has no validity with low volume. (Here, I'm calling IOF moderately traded and saying we're still in an 'on the cusp, area).

So the question is, which way?

[che7win] 10/12/2013 13:26

I added more too, would be rude not to. I think management should tweet small bits of news like the towers arriving. Would halt the news vacuum and silly falls like this morning

[garfield31] 10/12/2013 13:25

Hi frog. Sounds bit stange but assume you are the same frog who I asked a question about Dragon number of years ago. I bought and still hold. Think it was about your view that political issues usually sorted themselves out leaving the investment intact. If so good to see you are still around. Garfield

[phoenixs] 10/12/2013 13:13

mikkydhu, great post. I have also added for the very same reasons.

[mikkydhu] 10/12/2013 12:57

When the company talk of record production, without giving figures, I have to decide whether to believe them or not. I believe them. When informally we hear(thanks, Ansana)that IO3's ramp up has been the quickest and that the plant's production volumes are showing how good a job the operations guys have done, again, I have to decide if I believe it or not. It is consistent with other information, so I do believe it.

There is likely to be news soon and it is likely to be good (water, new plant(s) built, perhaps production update. Note that the production update on Dec 4th last year included a brief Iofina Chemical update).

So, based on my assumptions and suppositions above, I have just added some more.

[topthat] 10/12/2013 12:54

Buys/Sells not as they appear. My buy went reported as a SELL on m0neam

[neddo] 10/12/2013 12:47

are these late deliveries paying iof compo,

[che7win] 10/12/2013 12:37

Happy Christmas captain_kurt,

Ennis playing a blinder here, hopefully the support here marks the bottom.

[captain_kurt] 10/12/2013 12:33

Picked up more Iofina shares as a xmas present to myself :@)

I suspect the turnaround is very close

[wizard2020] 10/12/2013 12:12

Hi superg. I seem to remember that at the AGM they said that they weregoing to move away from Titanium towers because of logistic problems on import and transportation to GRP that could be produced locally and thus shorten delivery times. Could not resist a top up this morning.

[woodpeckers] 10/12/2013 11:52

I have to agree with roundup, the management have a lot to learn with regards the information it puts out to the market. They are a company that apparently wants to stay under the radar yet they over promised on delivery. I'm sure it wasn't their 'fault' and delays understandably happen, but why not underestimate to allow for slippage.

Cap Kurt mentioned Booker earlier, a company I have been invested in for 3 years. Our BOD would do well to look at how Charles Wilson handles the market. They hardly ever put out targets or make 'promises' so it is very easy to stay on the right side of the market, hence the steady but steep chart.

Solid numbers put out as they are achieved is much more appealing to long term investors.

[trav5] 10/12/2013 11:49

Superg1

Thanks for that it makes perfect sense. I am a new investor here and have never invested in a small commodities company before as I have always considered them to be to high risk. The business case here though going forward does sound compelling and there appears to be plenty of iodine. But it ticks three other important boxes for me patented technology, high barriers to entry, and an end market for the product. The water could be an added bonus. My experience of AIM Co's is at some stage potential has to be turned into cash and profits for the share price to really move north. I have invested here as I feel everything is in place for IOF to reach that final stage.

[joeywald] 10/12/2013 11:20

Presumably they would have to issue an RNS if it was thought the end of year 700mt minimum guidance exit rate would not be met?