Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 08/12/2013 15:52

Good points Titus

I suppose it comes down to watching a few years of BODs chest thumping, and going on about potential way beyond what they can possibly hope to achieve, v an experienced team being shrewd, and keeping it quiet, knowing what is best long term.

I can see what they have got, so can a few others, but many don't do anywhere near the research that others do.
The whole point of a business is to attract investment, to expand.

We can see the power of some threads, as when the thread gets hot, so can some share prices, but most of the heat for many, is a false rise with the jam a distant dream.

It's not about causing a hot price, but letting investors know what they have.

On the AIM secrecy and lack of information generally has investors thinking the worst.

The topic is purely driven by the apparent collapse of the plans of Chile producers combined with the frustration of many re the lack of clarity on iodine resources.

IOF have a vast database of well samples for iodine content, so they more than have a fair idea of the potential.

Yes the bod probably know best, and they will know who is and isn't a threat.

Certainly Chile are not anymore, but Japanese interest could be, especially as they operate in the area.

There has been no mention of a CPR of any type as far as I'm aware, which is pretty rare for any mineral company, who tend to work off that point first, to show the potential, they did for Atlantis
Maybe that is not relevant for contracts, but I understand brine leases are more or less for life.

Just an explanation giving some idea would do, with the risk comments attached.

[uppompeii] 08/12/2013 15:34

Well lets hope asking the company to put its head over the parapet doesn't have the same result as scrutables email demanding an update!
SG - I thought you were more patient? Surely if all is as expected it will come good with the numbers. My only concern would be if I were 100% invested here and subsequently have missed a stonking good year on other shares.

[dropside] 08/12/2013 15:24

Excellent post Titus, fully agree.

[titus10] 08/12/2013 14:20

SG1 (12055)

Yes, you have indeed said it (all) countless times and my 6-figure capital investment in IOF has been made, and retained in it's entirety, largely on the back of such relevant and interesting input, as I have registered more than once on your threads.

All good stuff, even if the relentless repetition can be hard on the eyes and available reading time.

Despite all the millions of words on these threads, the shareholders meetings, the Cheltenham pub club events, the "you'll sees", the expressions of hope, frustration, belief and (now rather muted) extrapolations into the wild blue yonder over the past 9 months, the share price - the only way any private investor can benefit from this company in the absence of dividends - is today almost exactly where it was 9 months ago.

So if all this venting hasn't moved it materially, what would?

It's a limited liability company, operating in a democratic environment, open to competition pressures. For all the clamour from minority shareholders, it will go wherever these environmental influences, which include rather importantly the daily, on-site activity of it's operatives under direction of the board of directors, take it.

There was a time when the thought that shareholders coalescing via internet forums might be able to form a force sufficient to influence the bod was intriguing. A dangerous thought, perhaps: there may be those amongst us qualified enough, but for whatever reason they are not employed in the operation. Everyone in IOF is - and some board members have at least as much incentive as any of us to make it work, one presumes.

Like a remora, it presently apparently depends on oil exploration for it's succour. In the Wild West of the USA at least, that arena is not exactly a vicar's tea party. Lance Buller appears to have carried IOF until he became ill and he's been a hard act to follow. However justified, delivery projections have slipped (it matters little whether the problems relate to the delivery or the projections).

Such considerations may not get as much airing as the wishes, hopes and beliefs of small shareholders, yet may be more likely to affect the perceptions which (amongst other things) affect share price, over any but the shortest time frame.

The future for IOF looks good, for the aggregate of reasons so often repeated here. Water finds it's own level eventually, as will the share price. There are no guaranteed certainties, however, and that includes patents.

[superg1] 08/12/2013 14:20

No problem at all Pcjoe.

I know it's all based around leases and acquisition of them, but they are useless to competitors.

To produce iodine you need the deal with the operator and the land owner for the brine lease.

The only thing a competitor could do would to try and block iof on hot sections. I've been studying IOF for near 3 years, and while I know the PPM is very good in OK and found facts about he io2 area, which wells, what ppm and where are only apparent once IOF bang a plant in, then rug shows a map with the relevant wells.
When they go after a site with a build the leases are already done.

IOF said themselves, finding lease owners is tough and apparently the geologist has spent 6 years trying to fathom why some wells are high and some none. IOF have 1000's of samples, no one else has been doing that.

So how does a competitor work out from 130,000 plus wells where the iodine is, they are years behind.

It would be hugely time consuming, to try and find where the best iodine is, then find the lease owner. Having done all that, then find a brine lease lawyer who is not with IOF. Then convince the lease owner to go with them, but knowing they are not going to get any royalties as the competitor can't produce any iodine as they don't have the technology, contract with the operator, and are blocked by a patent.

The Chile producer market, low cost domination had turned on it's head in two years. IOF are now the threat to Chile, not the other way around.

So the original thought process to protect the business, is now based on out of date strategy.

If you look at Oil. Yes that is simple, if someone strikes oil and they want to grab leases, then it's good to keep quiet until leases are secured. It's obvious which wells are producing. However 90% plus of wells don't have commercial iodine, and no one has a clue, without testing, which wells are good. IOF have tested plenty of duds.

I worked out some time back that the 19000 mt per year, comment related to sites they have found with commercial iodine.

The point of the iodine secrecy is displayed across a number of producers, but now we can see some falling apart due to supposed increases, or fear of increases in production.

Some of the players SQM feared and listed, have now shelved plans.

Coming out from under the radar, now, on balance, would seem to do more good, than harm. There is no way SQM and co would increase production to combat IOF, they would surely do the opposite as they need high prices to survive.

[pcjoe] 08/12/2013 12:49

SG`s post - copied & posted to IOF for comment - Like minded others may wish to do the same at [e-mail] - sorry for not asking SG but your post hit a common chord with a few here it would seem - Some may argue for just letting the company get on with it but if the company wishes to carry on with the "Under the Radar strategy" then a good few of us would like to hear the reasons for it - straight from the horses mouth - and also any plans for likely exit from same...

[spideyyy] 08/12/2013 11:48

Hi.From the last presentation I Recall LB saying him and GL would fly down to Chile at the start of new year.Maybe they have plans to do exactly as SG1 suggests?

[the fat controller] 08/12/2013 11:00

Superg,
Yes, I agree that it is now time to come out of the undergrowth and show the markets what we've got. Is this view being put to the company? I know that you have good contact with Iofina, so now is the time to let them know our point of view. It's no good us discussing on this BB, and all agreeing, but the company pursuing another agenda with no knowledge of our feelings. It may also be that they are so focused on delivering the plants that they haven't stopped to think about the macro economics.

It does seem as if everything is coming together to create a perfect storm for Iofina. If they can deliver the plants (and we have absolutely no reason to believe otherwise, minor delays aside), then they will become the number one Iodine producer in the world. The only thing I can see that will stop them, is a takeover. And any takeover approach should create a bidding war. What price world domination in this sector?

The share price has become becalmed on uncertainty regarding the rollout. Frustrating, yes, but very low volumes. When the new plants are announced, and the water permit conclude, then IMO we'll move to new heights.

I believe that Iofina will deliver in 2014, and that all invested will have a very good year.
GLA,
TFC

[monty panesar] 08/12/2013 10:38

Post 12008- brilliant news that the ramp up on IO3 much faster that the first 2. Very exciting few weeks ahead.

[superg1] 08/12/2013 10:32

Bog

The boring stuff that some think of re QFI.

Right it seems it's basically watering down heavy oil, for shipping and other applications, which means less emissions and reduced costs.

There is a lot to read but on a simple point.

Have you any idea of the cost per gallon/barrel etc to turn the heavy oil into the QFI version.

E.G. Is there a pricing point where, heavy oil use would become cheaper than the QFI version, considering the cost etc.

As someone pointed out to me, years back diesel cars were not that common, and at the time diesel was cheaper than petrol.

However diesel engines took off, and are now very popular and common. Next thing we know diesel prices leap-frogged petrol.

Why is that?. Well imo it was probably down to the Billions lost in taxes on the petrol side, so they increased it on the Diesel to get their money back.

So that is a thought to me with such tech if it becomes used on a large scale. Someone somewhere is going to lose billions, maybe 100's of billions in tax revenue.

Someone somewhere will surely come up with a cunning plan, to get that revenue back.

That thought process is way into the future, but then if they recognise the threat early on, what then.


The first point of course is being mindful of near term revenue for the next year or two.

Such strong rises are normally caused by PI interest, and quite a few seem to be in on an IOF £2.65 equivalent.

It could of course just keep flying on up.

[superg1] 08/12/2013 10:18

Bog

I'll take the QFI part onto the tips thread, but as a comparison, QFI has 6 times the shares of IOF, so the current 45.5p price is equal to £2.65 on IOF.

Thus is it getting ahead of itself?, it could go higher of course.

[titus10] 08/12/2013 09:53

Crazycoops

Absolutely agree: my point is simply that first mover advantage, underpinned by tied up leases in this case, is more important than patents.

Reassuring as patents may seem, I merely suggest that if that sentence from SG's piece is indeed the case, with so much at stake it may be unwise to swallow the lollipop whole.

[crazycoops] 08/12/2013 00:22

Titus, the patent isn't IOF's only protection. Each plant requires a different chemical mix and IOF's experience and expertise of the formula provides added protection. But the kicker is that they have many of the leases for high brine sites tied up already. I suspect the 'under the radar' approach (if that is the case) is enabling them to tie up more key leases.

[titus10] 07/12/2013 23:59

"IOF have practically nailed an entire country's worth of iodine with one patent."

I hate to say this, but history is littered with broken or circumvented patents.

If the above is indeed the case, rather a lot rests on this "one patent". No pressure then.

Time for bed. Sleep well - and GLA.

[worraps] 07/12/2013 22:08

superg.....a really great post, 12036, thank you. As you know, some of us have felt enough is enough with 'under the radar' for some time. It really doesn't seem necessary any more, especially with the Chile iodine industry crumbling and disintegrating before our eyes.

It's good to see you are changing your stance. Very reassuring indeed. It makes me feel I'm not quite such an idiot afterall!

[superg1] 07/12/2013 22:04

Bog
I have started to read. I know a guy who is looking for stories just like the QFI case to feature.

I'm such a pain re how deeply I look it takes ages. I should just get in blind in some cases, but it's easy to be sucked in by BS on any share, if you haven't a clue what the rules of the game are.

Take a place like Currys as a well known goods supplier. Their T and C on faulty goods is in some regards completely against what the law says.

You would think such places know what they are talking about, but their policies in many cases are lies in relation to consumer rights.

Unfortunately, they feed young store assistants that info who regurgitate it, and get even alive by people who know the rules.

The point being, as always DYOR, QFI looks very interesting, but mind boggling on those figures mentioned, so a case for me of ignoring the overall market, to try and map the likely revenue route.

I'm looking at another where legislation doubles demand in two years, so it's a case of trying to work out, how many are in the sector or could enter the sector.

That's what I like about iodine, very few in it, and very scarce commercial resources.

Graphite was a talking point months back, but I found a line about a number of moth-balled mines which imo is the main risk when that market takes off.

[danster4] 07/12/2013 21:45

It appears the Chileans have not been honest about their outlook, time for IOF to step up and show their production numbers by plant.

[n3tleylucas] 07/12/2013 21:33

you are a joy

[bogg1e] 07/12/2013 21:25

Hi Net. Nice link.

Engelo, QFIs fuel is proven; technically and economically. The final proof of concept is being run as we speak and as it only covers 400 hours will be over very soon. Then there is the very last hurdle to commercialization; the 4000 hour continous test with the engines running on that fuel. After which the engines will be taken apart and tested for damage/corrosion etc. No problems are envisaged after 7 years of perpetual development between the engne manufacturers, QFI and AkzoNobel. The the first commercial roll out begins, probably by june. Sorry IOFers for being off topic.

[pcjoe] 07/12/2013 20:19

Nice post SG - Suggest you copy & paste that one across to IOF - They could do worse than act on that - Especially like the idea of IOF stirring a little bit of extra bad news into the Chilean situation - Can only do us good if IOF`s declared prospects further turns the screw on any possible future investment/expansion there - IOFs likely timing into the mainstream market is looking very good at this moment but an opportunity now for a little extra "ping" from the company to end the year on perhaps

EDIT

SG - I see QFI at this time as per the pre IO1 final proof of concept period - Investors knew the process had been Lab tested to death by a highly competent, motivated & experienced team over a good few years but needed to see it working in the field ( Current final Maersk trials) - QFIs share price might well be mirroring IOF`s share price path in that regard

[superg1] 07/12/2013 20:03

Just to point out. The whole under the radar point was completely valid and may still be considered so by IOF.

E.G. If you have 3 or 4 high ppm sites of good bpd still not signed off on leases then overall they are long term high value contracts.

I.E. leases not signed for high ppm sites that may cover 2000mt. Which over a 15 year period is worth $1.5 billion, so we are talking big numbers.

But if they have 19000mt tied up in contracts as hinted at, then that's over $14 billions worth at todays prices, which would be 'nice' to know.

However from the start position of IOF, SQM was an iodine bully looking to trample competitors, now it's a lame duck with bosses hoping to avoid prison, and IOF have moved on considerably.

The whole circs of those leases and iof having all the data, plus all the complications, means it would be a tangled web for any other party to try and unravel. IOF could even throw some tactical misinformation there way to fog it up a bit.

Having said that I have heard, as before, that some try to snoop around IOF plants.

On that front, I like the IOF sense of humour, have you spotted it on IO3?

They have stuck a US flag on the top. :-)

[woodpeckers] 07/12/2013 19:57

Don't often post as you say it all, but have to comment on that last rallying post SG - absolutely brilliant! Many thanks, I'm here for the long term (as long as that may be!).

[engelo] 07/12/2013 19:41

Bogg1e: excuse my ignorance but is QFI's technical solution fully proven, ie equivalent to IOF's, or just very likely to succeed at this point in time?