Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[engelo] 02/10/2013 14:47

Warren: repeat of 26th Sept RNS imo for some reason.

edit Probably duplicate from OM. Hope the mkt doesn't notice.

[uriney] 02/10/2013 14:44

RNS just out.

Old M have increased their holding again!

Uriney

[warrensearle] 02/10/2013 14:43

Old mutual mopping up the weak sellers

[engelo] 02/10/2013 14:40

jointer/sg: thought that I03-6 (and recently stated I believe I07/8) were all to the same spec as I02. Surely that includes tower size? Believe applies to all towers, whether Ti or FRP? Have I missed something?

Edit: is I03 Ti or FRP? If Ti will have to be the standard size because of the shipping container restriction.

[warrensearle] 02/10/2013 14:29

SG agree and you are preaching to the converted here :) merely trying to offer an explanation as to why the share price is going backwards.And whilst you and I who are In from a much lower cost base can be relaxed about day to day movements not so for our friends here in at over 200 or highly leveraged with SBs not that I have much sympathy for the latter !

[jointer13] 02/10/2013 14:25

naphar...that is the brines they are getting.
as sg says the amount they process will depend on the tower size.

its a nice amount to have starting off.

[superg1] 02/10/2013 14:24

Warren

Do you know of any share that meets it's deadlines. I don't think I've ever seen the Dr on time even when I seem to be the only one in there. It always seems to be a 20 to 40 minute wait.

That's not to say io3 isn't on time, but why worry over such a minor matter. If someone sold because it's the 2nd October and no io3 news, they shouldn't invest anywhere at any time.

Look at poor old GDL still waiting for that promised early first quarter test well result.

FUM CSD was supposed to launch in 2006.

Moving to iodine. Sirocco hoped to be on 2000mt plus. Algorta 7000mt back in 2011.

Cos hoped to scupper SQM and went form 6000mt to under 2000mt, as the 'plan' involved illegal water extraction.

AVN were supposed to be £10 plus a few years back.

I just read a sell note on Domino pizza, as the author expected poor sales here and in new markets. Coincidentally the news was out today and was the opposite.


It's pointless trying to guess what the market is going to do or why, whether on good news or bad. So all I do personally is look at the business, decide where I thinking it is going over the next few years and make a decision.

I get asked many times on IOF, what is your target price/exit point. That seems to be a common and obsessive question on all shares.

My exit point will be when I think the company has reached it's full value, and can do no more for significant growth. That then may be hold for dividends.

On the flip side if the business plan looks like it could materially change for the worse then one may have to reconsider.

A price drop in iodine is not a concern to me as all that will do is close down other mines and send the price back up again.

But then when I think IOF, I think of all the extra's they have as back up, but the iodine story is enough on it's own.

Equally this morning I read something about graphite. Some may be aware of the grapheme frenzy and shares involved in graphite.

When that hype arrived I read one line in a report-:

'A number of mothballed mines around the world'

So imo if there is big interest and the price goes up, the dusters come out and there are graphite mines all over the place.

Now I see this morning I read about considerable success re graphite resources thus sentiment is low on graphite related shares.


However back to IOF and I know Iodine is scarce, used in multitude of products worldwide. a growing demand from technology and a producer sector seeing it's highest capex and opex costs ever, with more pain to come.

IOF pop up as the potential lowest capex model by far on a relatively unknown world class resource.

The fact the market doesn't understand it or indeed the water side is irrelevant. They do understand revenues, profits, margins and barriers to entry.

So all you need is patience.

[diggulden] 02/10/2013 14:10

Maybe Warren, i think confidence is still fragile so you could be right. I'm way past the stage of being concerned by days or weeks delays.

The important milestone for me is IO6 to be built, or at least nearly built by end of December.

As I mentioned earlier, GL confirmed IO3 will contribute to Iodine product this month, so nothing to worry about here.

[warrensearle] 02/10/2013 13:58

Agm - io3 will be completed in Q3September statement - io3 to be completed End of September Latest statement you have posted maybe some confusion between completed and commissioned they shouldn't really have mentioned "completed" by Q3 if they didn't mean commissioned Who cares when they are built I care about them being operational and the market in my view took that as in Q3They have 4 plants to commission this year the market is dubious about them achieving this and CF did say its "his biggest concern" in relation to delivering on the roll outAll noise really as I do believe it will be online shortly and we know the others are actively in progressThis is however why I think we are pulling back

[rhwillcol] 02/10/2013 13:56

This looks to be going right back up "in short order". Lots of buys coming through.

[diggulden] 02/10/2013 13:48

'-- IO#3 in final stages of construction, with electric tie in coming planned at approximately month end;'

From the RNS above. It says electric tie by end of Sept, commissioning historically comes approx 10-14 days after that. There is no 'missed' target yet.

[warrensearle] 02/10/2013 13:45

They have told the market they will have io3 - 6 operational before year end and moved io3 date from q3 to end of September we are in october and it is not commissioned - for me that's the reason - we all know it's in the final stages of hook up etc but until the company confirmed its commissioned and working as planned the market will take it as a missed deadline

[jackster193] 02/10/2013 13:29

Hopefully we have now bounced off the Mid Sept support level.

[nevmyers] 02/10/2013 13:27

Never know a share fall so much as IOF on the back of nothing really, seems to be If they don't release a positive RNS every couple of weeks they go back down to the last support level.

[superg1] 02/10/2013 13:25

I think we have had this discussion a few score times now.

PI's but on the rise thinking they will miss out, and sell on the lows in fear.

Pre news, in great detail it was spelt out why results would be fine, and that all was going well. It could have been bought at 140 to 145 back then.

Even post news I think the low 150's were available.

If you are in long term it isn't an issue, and the water permit has now taken a step forward, which carries a very decent revenue on it's own.

There is the small matter of the US situation which has sells on many shares. What fund would buy knowing the habits of investors and fellow funds.

The US will sort their issue the markets will jump and investors will buy various on the highs, instead of now, on the lows.

Some no doubt are forced sells,where traders spread themselves too close to the wire.

The price does it's thing and probably makes many jumpy but that's the same on all shares.

If I was a find wanting 5% of a share I wouldn't chase any price, just wait for dips, which create a supply on the lows as PIs sell.

[engelo] 02/10/2013 13:17

warren: feedback from presentations has been very encouraging but the I03 RNS (and I hope an update on I02) might need the BoD to get back to the US. The second major plant of 2 is pretty significant: next year when eg it's the 7th of 7 it will be more relaxed :-)

Don't know whether the market have caught up with the water permit, or the patent yet. Also don't know whether IOF can construct an RNS on either of these at this stage. Suspect not in both cases.

[escapetohome] 02/10/2013 13:00

Crikes - Whats going on here?

All goes to prove that shre prices often do the opposite to what you expect

[outfly] 02/10/2013 12:55

I hope so, I bought last Friday at £1.85, ouch.

[warrensearle] 02/10/2013 12:48

Nice little Rns saying Iof3 commissioned will sort this pullback out

[roger melly] 02/10/2013 12:42

eeza
Your "back to 140p" comment does you no favours.

Stick to the chocolate maker, lol

[eeza] 02/10/2013 12:30

Lol !!!!!!!!!!!

Back to 140p.

Still - this time next year, Rodney - or the year after.

[naphar] 02/10/2013 12:24

SG, yes, I know FRP plants can do more with bigger towers. What I am wondering is, did the team indicate they expect IO3 to be able to handle the full 45k bpd that might go to that SWD - if they did, that would be new news to me, I did not hear that at the London presentation

[superg1] 02/10/2013 12:20

Naphar

That depends if io3 is an FRP unit or titanium Frp's towers can be bigger and start at 35k bpd