Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[worraps] 01/10/2013 11:14

It's ok, superg.....I may be naive about many things, but fortunately, I can recognise a troll from a mile off. I've never even come close to being swayed by them at any time. In fact, those that I haven't filtered actually make me laugh with their crazy predictions.

[n3tleylucas] 01/10/2013 11:07

relax graham ffs ...

[n3tleylucas] 01/10/2013 11:04

"Remember mm's play mind games in the hope that the jittery investors sell out."

Yes they do, but their job is to anticipate & manage supply and demand, not to say what's right or wrong.

[bobsworth] 01/10/2013 11:01

Remember mm's play mind games in the hope that the jittery investors sell out.

It a game of brinkmanship which sadly many PI's loose and the institutions gain.

It will stop when the institutions can bag no more & the mm's let the share price off the hook.

It's a bit like the current USA political brinkmanship which the public may suffer on loss of public services but will come good in the end.

With significant news speeding towards us those taking a long term position should take advantage of the mm's and top up if you can.

[sandbag] 01/10/2013 10:55

worraps,

I sympathise with you entirely. I expect to start selling tranches off in the New Year to supplement my pension. I'd be much happier selling a few thousand at £3 than £1.50. So you're not alone but worryng by us won't change anything. May as well relax!

[n3tleylucas] 01/10/2013 10:42

'tis a brutal game luv, read everything.

[phoenixs] 01/10/2013 10:42

the pieces of the jigsaw are coming into place. I have bought more this morning.
I think that during the coming weeks and months there will be continuous good news and that we should not just expect the share price to jump without any retracing. I see the fall in share price as a further buying opportunity after solid interims and forward guidance which will be confirmed in the coming weeks.

[worraps] 01/10/2013 10:42

Ok guys, thanks for your patience with this nervy investor. I'm not a short term trader, I am someone who put all their faith and research into IOF, having been badly burnt in the past in other shares that I had also put all my faith and research into, and which then did extremely badly for me and my wealth. This does have a knock on effect insomuch as it leaves me nervous in all my investments from then on. I have not lost any faith in IOF at all. I still see it as my best investment ever. The potential is enormous. But, perhaps I let my expectations when there is good news, to run away with me, and I have a tendency to think the shareprice will do likewise. It is naive of me, I'm sure, but I always think with a company like this, the shareprice will continue to go up, along with the development of the company.

Also, you mustn't assume that everyone is young enough to go away for 6-9 months, and not look at what their investment is doing. Some of us possibly don't have as much time left on this planet as others. Therefore time that is left, is watched very carefully indeed, and every second counts, and so does every penny on the shareprice of their most precious investment.

I realise I must come across as a silly, over anxious, whinging, shareprice addict. But I have good reason to be that way.....believe me.

[superg1] 01/10/2013 10:41

worraps

I have long said on many shares PI's buy on the highs and sell on the lows.

At 135 to 145 Pi's were selling and that was the supply. It jumped to 170 and 180 and PIs bought.

It drops back and PI's sell.

This cycle has been going on for many years. Imo there is a misconception by many that pushing a price up will create a supply and encourage sells.

The reverse imo is true.

It was said many times that the chem div figures would be fine as production figures would not affect them. After the news saying exactly that it rumbled then took off. Smart money would have been in at mid 140's and no doubt cashed in on the rise while PIs bought.

The smart money will gladly let it drop, watch PIs sell and then load up again for the next move up.

Price drops are the best way to get PIs to sell.

It's the fear and greed situation so often talked about. PIs buy on rises in fear of missing out, then see a drop and sell in panic. Hence most investors lose money.

Previous rns news certainly had many worried, so I understand the fear. Investment is about long term, buying and selling short term is trading, whether a private investor or a professional.

So while some jump at the slightest move, all I am doing is stating my view. I'm not bothered what it does this month or next, as long as the business plan is moving forward.

Potential 1500mt plus this time next year or higher, plus a water depot or more.

Maybe someone will but the water div, or JV on it. Permits in N Dakota too.

In that time someone may want in on the deep rights, helium too. Weill may have hit oil in the Nisku which runs all the way under IOF.

The iodine and 1 depot will do as that is worth far more than this price, nothing that goes on elsewhere seriously affects IOF.

The iodine prices may drop, but as we know, at certain levels, some mines will get wiped out, and the price will jump.

So what is there to worry about? I'm in long term for 2k mt 3kmt plus and more.

However I doubt we will see those days as the whole lot imo will be bought out by then, and maybe at no less than about 4 times this price.

It's a great long term investment, trading even for the best, has a graveyard full of serious failures.

[mr paul b] 01/10/2013 10:39

Worraps how many shares lately on the aim post good interims and subsequently drop , a vast majority , iof have at least bucked the trend .

[the librarian] 01/10/2013 10:37

The MM's also need to shake out some weak holders to fulfill their obligations to the Institutions that they want to supply worraps, I hope that PI's are getting wise to that now, once you sell on a dip it is rare that you can buy back in at a lower price... patience required... try a nice walk and relax, life is good!

[croc8] 01/10/2013 10:24

Worraps, take a look at the markets in general. With what is going on in the US, it is no surprise things are down. Relax a little. The news on the progress of the water will filter through ( pun intended), and we will see the expected upturn. Whilst the share price wanders a little, all the news and progress is positive.

[roboben] 01/10/2013 10:21

Worraps - We were below 150 when the interims were announced, so we are currently up compared with that. Granted that the surge that went along with the interims took us much higher than we are now, but we have seen a rise since they were released. This when the markets generally are in some turmoil.

I have said before that while these boards are generally very useful one of their less desirable effects is to take people who view themselves as long-term investors and make them start thinking and behaving like short-term traders. I don't know you and I don't know how you see yourself, but you're coming across as a short-termer!

If you don't see yourself as a short-term trader then perhaps the best thing would be to stay away from the screen for the next 6 to 9 months!

IOF's position as a good, medium to long-term investment has been underpinned by those results and by today's water news. Genuine long-term holders can relax.

If you're going to be concerned by short-term share price movements then it's probably best (for your own sanity!) just to discipline yourself not to look! There'll be plenty of scope for volatility over the next few weeks given the political shenanigans that will be going on in the USA for some time. That may just hit all share prices over here, too. What it won't do is alter the fact that this company is a cracking company to be invested in. Take a break for 9 months and you'll certainly see that reflected in the share price.

No offence intended!

[diggulden] 01/10/2013 10:14

Worraps, you are forever worrying about the share price, today, tomorrow, last week, next week!

Take some time off :)

[worraps] 01/10/2013 09:59

Excellent long awaited interims just four working days ago. Shareprice DOWN 20p since. I know, I know, superg, you're not worried about the shareprice. But really, my optimism earlier is looking misplaced! Very disappointed.

[superg1] 01/10/2013 09:50

Well I can only pass on the vibes and the suggestion is it will be quick.

We just need this US issue to clear now as funds and everyone else sits on their hands.

On opex, I think we have Algorta nailed now, and it's looking like $35 per kg plus.

Sirocco we know are $34 to $38

SCM Bullmine quoted by LB as $50 per kg

[naphar] 01/10/2013 09:50

Meadow, realistically I think we might get the permit by the end of the year. CF stated 3 months from receiving permit to selling water. That might be a bit optimistic but it's not like CF to over promise, and it gives them 6 months from now to find contractors, get the permit, build the terminal, and start selling through whatever means they decide is best, JV or otherwise.

[diggulden] 01/10/2013 09:47

From Noli.

The next stage of the water permit:

If a meeting is not requested with DNRC within 15 days of the "correct and complete" determination and no additional information is submitted on the application then DNRC will move forward with making a preliminary determination. This should result in a faster decision on the application.
If the statutory criteria are proven, the DNRC will prepare a preliminary determination to grant the application and will move forward to public notice. Typically, the application is noticed to other water users and in a newspaper of general circulation in the area. Up to 60 days are allowed for objections and if objections are not received, the DNRC will issue the Provisional Permit or Change Authorization. If valid objections are filed, the application is moved to the DNRC Hearings Unit and the contested case hearings process will be initiated.

[n3tleylucas] 01/10/2013 09:45

Don't be daft Meadow2.

[meadow2] 01/10/2013 09:43

SG Looking at the various stages of the water applications, it seems that two months is about the average between stages being completed. However, as there is no more to be done by the applicant but wait, the next step should be completed well within two months. It looks as though water will be on sale and the subsequent revenues being received early in the new year. Let's hope so!

[n3tleylucas] 01/10/2013 09:32

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh ...

[superg1] 01/10/2013 08:56

There is no pleasure in being right on drops if PI's invested, it's all just about opinions not being right and wrong. GDL may be sitting pretty in a year, or perhaps Scrut saw the news (due to the wierd timing) and got out , on good profits.

It's still above the recent lows so best wishes to GDL investors.

Moving on

Don't shoot the messenger. I was bust yesterday and have just caught up on some 'things'.

The determination to grant could takes weeks, however indications are that it could be sorted in quick time. Knowing the process it will just need a quick meet/ link up with IOF to set the preliminary determination to grant in action.

The facts are that the O and G sector needs the water, and at the moment temporary permits are in place against the original rules to service that sector.

I'm sure the bureau will be keen to sort correct applications for the correct use of water. It will allow them to start to withdraw the temp irrigation use for industrial water, which does not comply with water laws.

In fact if you think about it, they can hardly continue to condone the use of irrigation water for industrial use, against the rules, and then refuse correct applications.

[embers69] 01/10/2013 08:51

CAZA up 4% it's only the start!

[che7win] 01/10/2013 08:49

fingers xxd,
you were spot on in your analysis here and I know you did that analysis without any knowledge of the interims coming up, even more impressive!