Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[pcjoe] 16/7/2013 14:48

Ramu - I presume you mean run rate at end 2014? - I err on the conservative side re downtimes ( weather/tech related) & non perfect or 100% constant supplies of brine ( there will be occasional gluts & droughts of brine at SWDs IMO & plant size/back up minis etc should be available to handle gluts to help balance out temporary droughts over year - again IMO)

Being conservative lets say 12 plants - This years plants (1-6) should be doing better than the projected 1500T run rate at end of 2013 - Lets say 1800T

Lets make plants 7-12 on an exit run rate at end 2014 of 1500T ( including additional mini unit input)

Thats us on total 3300T run rate at end of 2014 - All conditional on BOD meeting very doable roll out, with possibly very, very decent upside to these figures as per SGs forecasts

I personally like to keep my feet on the ground re this stuff but very happy to be holding on the back of the above figures

[naphar] 16/7/2013 14:47

But Bogg1e, that's the point, I do not believe anyone has been quting 1500mt physical output from 2013 production

[bogg1e] 16/7/2013 14:42

Same as naphar, i have to trust figures quoted by people at the agm, i wasn't there myself.

[ramu kumar] 16/7/2013 14:42

naphar, what output are you using in your numbers? TIA

[naphar] 16/7/2013 14:36

Bogg1e

No idea where you get theBoD saying 1500mt output for 2013, I have never heard that at any of the 3 presentations I have attended.

I have heard them saying there end of 2013 run rate would make them the biggest US producer. That's a lot different to producing 1500mt in 2013. I don't personally believe 1500mt physical output of raw iodine is possible this year, and I am not using anwhere near that figure in my numbers. If it happens, I guess I will be very pleasantly surprised but reckon the likelihood is very very low. Happy to be proven wrong though!

[bogg1e] 16/7/2013 14:27

maca, given that there have been outages, lower brine feeds, start up delays etc, trying to calculate value on a quarterly basis would be a nightmare. I thought it best to make calculations for value of the yearly output, namely because its straight from the BoD and therefore hopefully reliable.

[bogg1e] 16/7/2013 14:23

ramu - the total output is 1500 tons according to BoD. The problem is that this production value will not be captured until interrims in 2014. Hence the lag between share price and actual "value".

[ramu kumar] 16/7/2013 14:14

pcjoe, if 1500T is for end 2013, what is forecast total output for 2013? TIA

EDIT: pcjoe, please ignore - just read your post 5198, thanks

[pcjoe] 16/7/2013 13:41

Maca 1212 - I think we have established that the 1500T is the projected run rate at the end of 2013 or is your point just to humiliate a fellow BBer who has made a well intentioned if incorrect point? - There will be very few posters on this BB if everybody takes your tone - Amend please

[maca1212] 16/7/2013 13:28

Boggle,

Can you give me a breakdown of that 1500MT total output across the 4 quarters of 2013?

I think it is a little ambitious given the current state of play.

M

[maca1212] 16/7/2013 13:28

Boggle,

Can you give me a breakdown of that 1500MT total output across the 4 quarters of 2013?

I think it is a little ambitious given the current state of play.

M

[bogg1e] 16/7/2013 13:19

Im just trying to make the point that before any positive results have been given to the market the current share price is trading on a high multiple if calculated using Morningstar's forecast earnings for 2013 at $6m pre tax. If however we take the figures i calculated for the BoD forecast for 2013 of 1500 tons the value (based on total output not exit rate) justifies an eps figure that equates to a much lower p/e at the current share price. That has me slightly mystified because it means the market is trying to find a fair value on earnings that haven't even been reported yet. Which is why the next results are so important. We may finally be able to make more exacting calculations for both total output value and exit rate value, but i agree that the share price will lag behind these evaluations.

[maca1212] 16/7/2013 13:12

Bogg1e,

You change the playing field with such alacrity when discussing EPS that I find it hard to rationalize your figures.

Maybe you can clarify:

1) The Board has guided EBITDA of $40-50M for FY2013? (EPS 30-40 cents, 127M odd shares).
2) The company made a loss in 2012 but you calculate a positive EPS of 'about 30' for that accounting period?
3) I can see why you think that morningstar's valuation is wrong (if you believe point 1 above) but presumably there is nothing wrong with their calculations based on a predicted EBITDA of $6M (or have I been missing something in the 'nitty gritty' of the accounts?)

M

[bogg1e] 16/7/2013 12:55

Total tonnage. I am bearing in mind a certain time lag between audited figures for the year and publication of results as well as the fact that produced iodine may not be sold within the accounting time frame and would be accounted for in the following years results. Also we are at a peculiar point where we shall go from negative earnings (2012) to positive earnings quite swiftly (2013 onwards) and i don't think the market has quite got its head around that.

PC that's why my actual calculations are based on a p/e of 10. The p/e value is a bit of a tricky one as well, if we go with the morningstar broker report they have pre-tax revenue at $6m (given they can offset $15m against tax if they choose also distorts this value), but with the market cap currently at approx £250 million or $375m/$6m = a p/e of 60-ish, which is outrageous, although probably incorrect when you get down to the nitty grity of the accounts.

Thats why it will be interesting to see the p/e the market gives the share when the real figures are revealed. Hopefully by september 20th

[chumbo] 16/7/2013 12:39

Bogg1e: are you working on total tonnes produced in 2013 or exit rate?
Edit: please ignore!

[pcjoe] 16/7/2013 12:38

Bogg1e - I think the BOD are looking for a run rate at the end of the year of circa 1500T ( biggest producer in USA ) - we only have 2 plants up and running at the moment producing a likely max of 1 - 1.25 T per day at this time - The 30 P/E sounds like a very reasonable figure to run with given prospects for 2014 but your figures are a fair bit off at this time methinks

EDIT

I reckon 600 - 800T max of iodine in the bag by end of year 2013 if Io1 - Io6 are all producing

[bogg1e] 16/7/2013 12:28

Che i am going with the BoD stating 1500 tons iodine for 2013, which does yield figures higher than the broker forecasts, this also includes a $15m dollar tax offset and improved margins for iodine used for derivatives in house.

[che7win] 16/7/2013 12:26

Bogg1e,
I think your forecast for this year is high, I'm expecting around £6m profit this year with 5 times that amount next year as a minimum.

[ramu kumar] 16/7/2013 12:22

Thanks Bogg1e

[bogg1e] 16/7/2013 12:18

ramu got your em and have sent you the docs.

[bogg1e] 16/7/2013 12:16

2013 low end earnings:

$57,451,422 (net earnings)/127,284,000 (shares in issue) = approx $4.50 /1.5 exchange rate = 30p eps

2013 High end earnings:

$82,638,922(net earnings)/127,284,000 (shares in issue) = approx $6.50 /1.5 = 42p eps

[ramu kumar] 16/7/2013 12:14

Bogg1e - my em is
Thanks

[bogg1e] 16/7/2013 12:10

ramu, you are one of the 70 people i didn't send my calculations to over the past couple of days. Its easier if you give me your mail address and i shall send it to you. Then go to the revenue for 2013. Its all explained there.

[pcjoe] 16/7/2013 12:09

Hi Bogg - just wondering what the calcs are behind the 30 - 40p earnings per share forecast at end of year?

[beercapafn] 16/7/2013 12:08

ramu. has any of the comments on SB made any sense, I recall you concidering SB a while ago, and the flash crash was a salutary experance to watch and read the comments.