Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[chumbo] 11/7/2013 08:24

Time to get the Tardis out again!

[escapetohome] 11/7/2013 08:15

Thought I would post this from the AGL board
From the Telegraph yesterday


ANGLE delighted with independent validation of Parsortix

Source: SMW
ANGLE has revealed successful results from third party testing of its Parsortix non-invasive cancer diagnostic product on colorectal cancer patient blood.

The Parsortix system comprising the PR1 machine and the GEN3 cassette was tested on cancer patient blood by the University of Surrey Oncology Group and has been found to be performing well.

Surrey researchers first undertook a wide range of testing on controlled spiked samples (cultured cancer cells added to healthy volunteer blood) with a variety of different types of cancer.

This testing enabled them to compare capture and harvesting of cells against known numbers of spiked cells and was completed successfully as a pre-cursor to testing the blood of cancer patients.

Surrey also developed and refined formal cell identification techniques with the Parsortix system. Following a number of successful separations of the blood of patients with a variety of different cancers, Surrey has completed a structured analysis of colorectal cancer patient blood undertaken by a hepatopancreobiliary surgeon from the Royal Surrey County Hospital.

ANGLE's founder and chief executive, Andrew Newland, said: "We are delighted that the University of Surrey's independent validation of the Parsortix system has shown it to be working well and believe that the Parsortix liquid biopsy has the potential to make a major contribution to more effective treatment of cancer patients.

"The University's success in using the Ficoll gradient with the Parsortix system is important as the ability to process larger blood volumes increases the sensitivity of the system further differentiating Parsortix from the competition."

[meadow2] 11/7/2013 08:10

I would think that anyone contemplating a takeover would, at least, wait until Iofina had proven itself and shown the continuing probability of steadily increasing production and profits. This means, in my opinion, that it is unlikely that a bid will be made before the end of 1914. By this time the share price should be well into double figures.

[madchick] 11/7/2013 07:59

I can't see the BoD agreeing to (only) five quid. It would then have to be a hostile takeover. But I don't think a hostile takeover would work within the single-figure price range because I am sure that if IOF could persuade IIs to invest at a premium to the then-current share price for the placings, and this was even BEFORE IOF had really proven the tech and when they had only 10% of the acreage they have now, then now, with the tech proven and the roll out poised, they have absolutely compelling arguments that the IIs should not sell out to the hostile bidder. And the BoD must be able to argue well if they managed to get those placings at the price they did. We PIs don't really count in all of this and I think there's a sizeable proportion of us who would say no in any case to a hostile bid, for what it's worth.

As you know, I think any takeover will be cheap vs future prospects, but I really don't fear the dirt cheap scenario. However, maybe on a political level your desire to motivate people to see the future benefits of remaining independent is better and more practical at the end of the day. I'm just looking at it from a purely logical level (and of course my assumptions can be challenged)!

[scrutable] 11/7/2013 00:03

madchick- 4984

IOF has been a micro cap, a very small company and is still small, far from having reached mid cap status - so think outside the box - think Big - and above all follow the logic of all our repeated, and your own, calculations. The answer as superg admits is scary.

Everyone's idea of a dirt cheap T/O is different. With a target of say 200 waste brine contracts often mentioned, and a consequent 10 year build up, profits of £250m p/a, capitalisation of £5 billion, and therefore a share price of £40 is not at all in the realms of fantasy. It is possible to imagine circumstances in which even that figure would be comfortably exceeded.

A global iodine behemoth, exploiting first mover advantage for ten years and IOF's rich future cash flow to develop vertical integration, multiple production centres in say the BRIC countries, Europe, and Japan and a proper professional international marketing machine building up an expanded derivatives range, whilst accelerating growth through two or three acquisitions say in Japan, Chile, Eastern Europe, and USA or Canada would rank as a FTSE 100 stock and look significant on the NYSE. Great fun for all concerned to bring about. Utterly plausible.

So Think Big and realise, and worry, that many PIs will think that a share price of £5, would be made in Heaven and would jump to take it when it would still be very, very cheap, compared with the 10-20 year scenario I have sketched out.

I hope that others will join me in preparing minds to moult out of/ to pupate out of the prevailing small company obsession which shuts out the LT opportunity
and the really Big Play well within this unique company's grasp

[hitsha3] 10/7/2013 23:25

SG you were right about avn, look what happen to them today good call. And i know you are right about IOF, thats why i am still here.

[urbanyeti] 10/7/2013 23:04

Scrutable, with regards to CEY if they were anywhere else they would be worth multiples of their current price as they are very well run, it is only their high competence that has allowed them to progress this well in very hostile circumstances.I was invested their after the initial fall due to the Arab spring & bailed in the end with a small loss as the political situation became more hostile. You have made a brave call getting in before the new direction is clear & I hope it pays off for you, I will watch with interest from the sidelines.

[madchick] 10/7/2013 22:41

I'm not sure I understand the term "cheap" takeover, but I'm not remotely worried about a takeover near the current share price levels (maybe more fool me) as I have faith in our BoD to do a good job of negotiations. After all, this is the only share I have been invested in where absolutely every single "dilution" has been at or ABOVE the then-current share price That's quite a massive achievement and the stakes for a takeover are far higher. They won't sell out dirt cheap, IMO.

[diggulden] 10/7/2013 21:55

SG, my understanding was that once prelim determination has been granted, it had to be published in the local newspaper (public notices which we have view of) for 45 days first, only then once no objections are raised will it then go back to DNRC for full rights. I assume there is a 'lead time' in between that process? Or have I got it wrong?

As I say, all my assumptions allow for some degree of slippage.

[superg1] 10/7/2013 21:44

Dig

Preliminary determination to grant rights for the water permit has a 45 day time line to full rights.

Io plants can be built in 60 days so let's hope for once they can outperform on that front.

There are plenty of potential surprises due to the various aspects of the business, that includes results for the operator on the test well on the conventional play. A 'bakken' find with vertical fracking. It must be pretty oil-soaked to be a vertical frack, but we'll just have to wait and see on that one.

[rogerbridge] 10/7/2013 21:19

Any of you guys in Camkids?
Looks interesting but I am not keen on China.

[rogerbridge] 10/7/2013 21:19

Any of you guys in Camkids?
Looks interesting but I am not keen on China.

[diggulden] 10/7/2013 21:02

Engelo, I'm allowing for up to 2 weeks slippage on IO4, just to be safe. All my timelines air on the side of caution (in my mind anyway!).

[engelo] 10/7/2013 20:29

What else might happen this year? Surely some news on IOF Chem, for one.

[nevmyers] 10/7/2013 20:18

ok cheers SG that all makes good sense

[engelo] 10/7/2013 20:11

dig: useful to have your list. Think MI design completed and first order(s) placed would also rate 95% .

Imo IOF recognise the importance of MIs as much as we do. This step is relatively straightforward for IOF's technical wizards, and no external dependencies. I'd guess they will reach this point by end Q3 at latest.

edit: noli: missed your post. Think the guidance we had was first MI built and possibly commissioned by end 2013, but no production anticipated.

edit2: dig: think the guidance we had was that I04 was only 1 month behind I03, so suggest end October for I04 live.

[superg1] 10/7/2013 19:46

Nev

I have never trusted what has gone on at AVN, the whole pump and ramp situation hit fever pitch at the high prices, what RHPS were doing, with long video's calling it the most explosive stock out there, and on high prices was madness. I do wonder about the incentive for them to have pushed the stock so much.

Most say ever trust what PI's say on a BB, but it seems to me we can at times be far more accurate, than most 'professional' sites.


Wouldn't touch it if I were you, the short term outlook is not good and shorters are already loading up.

Of course it could jump around in the next few days, which the traders will milk.

Ignore the director buys, they have bought all the way down from £7. Oh yes, after they got rid of a load of shares from the employee benefit trust, just 2 days before the tax free loophole closed. Nothing to do with that of course.
The EBT was for the BOD only it seems. Sold at £7 per share tax free

[diggulden] 10/7/2013 18:11

I hope so too Noli, but all speculative at the moment. Everything I have listed I feel has a 95% chance of happening. That leaves the potential brucey bonus of MI's, ND Water, Oil/Helium Farm outs etc...

[pcjoe] 10/7/2013 17:53

That would do very nicely Dig! - Fingers crossed....

[noli] 10/7/2013 17:43

Dig, are we not having any MI's then towards the end of the year and a possible ND water permit application going in, lol. I hope so.

[diggulden] 10/7/2013 17:20

Doesn't make too much sense does it! I was in a rush trying to get the screenshot up before L2 changed again!

FWIW, here are my thoughts are possible news flow between now and year end.

I think something like the following, all guesswork of course!

Patent approval: By end of July

IO2 production update: By end of July

Update on water preliminary approval: By mid August

CEO announcement: By end of August

H1 results and trading update: Mid September

IO3 online and producing: By mid September

Water permit for MT granted: Full approval by end of November

IO4 online and producing: By end of November

IO5 and 6 construction underway or commissioned: By end of December

Certainly plenty to look forward to. The commissioning of IO3 and 4 and a production update stating IO2 is a 400MT+ unit will transform the share price completely in the second half of this year...... I hope! Sooner the better, get the price up, stops any cheap takeovers

[uppompeii] 10/7/2013 16:47

Digg...."The 35k sat at 189 has slowly been snapped up"...lol, thats a quite an interesting way of putting it!

[nevmyers] 10/7/2013 16:23

SG1

Thanks for what you posted about AVN, I had noticed the drop and wonder what anyone's opinion was and if they look oversold, I don't think there is going to be a bounce back there anytime soon and they are to expensive for a punt, 50p I think is more my comfort zone, they may get there lol

[beercapafn] 10/7/2013 16:13

This steady rise in share price without news can surely only be II slowly building a position. yes there has been some chatter about TO but I am with the consensus that an approach will only be made when 'PROVEN' production figures puplished. Market Cap around 280million. You dont lob out that much on 1.5 opperation units.
still a hold for me, a little more relaxed at 190p than I was at 113p on that dreadfull morning.
A bit like US tapering, good news will just hasten a bid.