Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[ramu kumar] 16/7/2013 12:06

Bogg1e, excuse my ignorance - can you explain how you arrived at the earnings number, thanks

[ramu kumar] 16/7/2013 11:46

SG,

Saw it last night and they mentioned fracking tonight.

[superg1] 16/7/2013 11:33

Ramu

There was coverage last night, California and all it's wells. I think Lib mentioned it.

I thought 27 rigs near io2 didn't sound right until I saw that clip last night. Take a look.

[bogg1e] 16/7/2013 11:32

Nev, i have earnings for the end of this year (based on the figures given by the BoD) of 30p-40p ish per share. That put us on a current p/e of about 4.5-6.5. There's a lot of room for growth, considering that the current p/e based on last known earnings for 2012 is much higher, about 30 atm. I cant help feeling that these higher p/e numbers will apply when the figures are released. So for SG1 to say that something would be wrong if we are under 250p at year end is highly justified. The low end range of 30p on a p/e of 10 still equates to 300p per share, a 50% uplift from the current price.

[dorset64] 16/7/2013 11:22

Not sure if anyone listened, but this morning at 9.30 on Radio 4 was a piece on the UK's, and to a lesser extent the US fracking industry.

It basically stated how fracking occurs, detailing the problems with 'dirty water', although nobody mentioned that in the states clean water was being used.

[ramu kumar] 16/7/2013 10:58

Tonight's BBC news will feature fracking in States

[hotr0d] 16/7/2013 10:22

North Dakota Oil, Gas Production Reach New Highs

North Dakota oil and natural gas production reached new all-time highs in May, breaking the previous records set in April despite record rain in May thanks primarily to Bakken and Three Forks exploration and production activity.

Preliminary estimates by the North Dakota Industrial Commission's (NDIC) Department of Natural Resources indicates that the state's oil production reached 810,129 barrels of oil per day (bopd), up from the 793,852 bopd in April, while natural gas production grew to 899.9 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) from 861.1 MMcf/d in April.

The number of producing wells in the state also reached a record 8,915 in May, compared with 8,772 wells in April, according to NDIC's Department of Natural Resources.

Drilling permits grew to 211 in May from 202 in April, but declined to 165 in June; all three figures are down from the record of 370 set in October 2012. Lynn Helms, director of the NDIC's Department of Natural Resources, attributed the permit activity decline to sufficient permit inventory in place to accommodate multi-well pads, the inability to build locations during load restrictions, and time needed to deal with federal hydraulic fracturing rules if required.

The rig count in North Dakota inched up from 186 in April to 187 in May and June, down from the record high of 218 set May 29, 2012. While the drilling count showed little change, the number of well completions rose by 10 to 143, said Helms in a statement Monday.

Helms added that over 95 percent of drilling activity in the state still targets the Bakken and Three Forks formations.

"That number of completions is above the threshold needed to maintain production so the oil production rate rose, up 2.1 percent from April," Helms noted. "However, the drilling rigs continue to outpace completion crews."

At the end of May, an estimated 500 wells were waiting on completion services, up 10 from April.

Load restrictions have remained in place longer than ever before due to May being the wettest on record, Helms said. Difficult weather in April presented North Dakota operators with operational challenges as heavy snow blocked more than 80 percent of North Dakota's highways and May brought heavy rains to the state.

The production increase for oil beat energy information provider Genscape's estimate that called for a production increase of 12,000 bopd from April to May.

[superg1] 16/7/2013 09:38

Nev

If it's 246 at the end of the year then something will have gone wrong.

The intent is to exit as the US top producer. with io2 to io4 up to decent amounts of brine they can do that.

Iochem do 1200mt. They can go beyond that with io2 to 4 up to speed, then we have pods and hopefully io5 and 6 built and running too.

Then there is the water permit which will then open the door for valuations of that.

[warmsun] 16/7/2013 09:05

noli, here's hoping. We have drifted down from about 204 since yesterday and more shares being loaded on the Offer as we drift lower...hopefully they will all be taken out sooner rather than later....we shall see..

[bobsworth] 16/7/2013 09:00

Nothing Changes eh!
................................................................................................
hxxp://bearalley.blogspot.co.uk/2008/09/netley-lucas.html

Quote:

"Netley Lucas was a minor celebrity in the 1920s and 1930s. A fraudster and thief, he extended his conman career into the literary world as a publisher, biographer and plagiarist.

The problem with Netley Lucas is that he made a career out of lying, so finding authentic information about him isn't so easy. You may have to take some of his claims with a pinch of salt."
.......................................................................................

[n3tleylucas] 16/7/2013 08:40

"I think it will be a slow but steady rise now leading up to Xmas, end of year share price anyone ? I think about 246"

Bad news will probably have wreaked havoc to the share price, delays, production outages, missed targets, costs exploding ... you know? The usual.

75p eoy share price is my guess, maybe less ...

[noli] 16/7/2013 08:33

If Hurricane's post was correct yesterday then the 30k & 25k wont be problem and will soon be gone, aimho

[bobsworth] 16/7/2013 08:29

Hmmm hoping for big rise on H1 results in Sept!
Here's hoping for a Year End share price of 500+

[king_roster_iii] 16/7/2013 08:25

Nev as a potential buyer once said to me 'go back to planet zog and rework your numbers' :)

[nevmyers] 16/7/2013 08:20

Just got a feeling taking everything into account that has happened over the last few months and what has said will be happening but up to now has not it will take another RNS with some very positive and concrete news to get through and away from the £2 barrier, I think it will be a slow but steady rise now leading up to Xmas, end of year share price anyone ? I think about 246

[warmsun] 16/7/2013 08:09

Someone trying to keep the share price down or maybe we have a 'supply'..?

30k at 197 and 25k at 201....

edit,

Oh, and there's 3,652 at 230... :)

[n3tleylucas] 15/7/2013 23:20

Greed & fear, the olde story.

[napoleon 14th] 15/7/2013 23:16

Steven49 of LSE posts an interesting bit:

Just saw this from a short while ago in case anyone here is still puzzling over what happened:



The Dangers of Spread Betting

I note with interest that the recent, and bizarre price moves at Iofina (LON:IOF) seem to be subsiding. There was an extraordinary plunge on their shares on 20 June which took them from about 200p down to an intra-day spike on 22 June to not much over 100p. They then shot back up & found a floor around 145-150p, and are now back up to 185p.

The company issued a statement on 24 June saying they knew of no reason for the erratic share price movements.

I asked around as to what had caused this, and the reason is that several spread betting firms had heavily geared clients with large positions in Iofina. As the price began falling, apparently several large clients were not able to meet margin calls, and so the spread betting companies began liquidating their positions. This was clearly done clumsily, and triggered further rapid & large falls in the share price. The falling price therefore wiped out more spread betting clients, who were also over-leveraged, which triggered more client positions to be dumped (remember that spread betting companies will hedge their bets literally, so when they close out client long positions, they will usually be sellers of the physical stock, or CFDs anyway, which amounts to the same thing).

So what are the lessons to be learned from this?

The key lesson is that speculative shares (whose value is based on expectations of future profits/cashflows, as opposed to existing profits/cashflows) are totally unsuitable for spread bets. As I discovered to my cost in 2007-8, gearing is extremely dangerous in a plunging market, as it magnifies the losses. Liquidity can dry up to a point where you can't get out, even if you want to. So geared positions, combined with lack of liquidity in the underlying share, and/or a particularly volatile share price, is just an accident waiting to happen.

[che7win] 15/7/2013 21:54

Zak's record: 3 calls made, all 3 wrong, does anyone actually follow the guy?

He has to be right sometime surely.

[n3tleylucas] 15/7/2013 21:45

Yeah, this is another one to tread very carefully with ... a string of poor RNS's, yet the pyramid remains strong, for now.

[superg1] 15/7/2013 21:26

He should be right this time.

I do get the general impression, that a few who called IOF a momentum play, now realise there is a good reason for the rise from early 2012.

[the librarian] 15/7/2013 21:26

California oil fields seen from the air (producing since 1899!)

[pcjoe] 15/7/2013 21:22

I`ll have a minor dig at him then SG - For a supposedly highly rated pundit he is remarkably sanguine about leading from behind re the reality on the ground and ongoing events as they pop up - The only good thing about him to date is that he at least rates IOF as worth following - some very minor semblance of decent "gut" judgement there

[skylite] 15/7/2013 21:14

Based on that Sg we should be expecting exactly the opposite of what he says - or maybe he'll get right just once?