Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 15/7/2013 21:06

China
Not a dig at Zac, but the predictions so far-:

At 170 the call was a quadruple signal sell, and it took off upwards.

Then when it bounced around 240 to 250, it was set for the next surge up apparently, and took a huge dive.

Then when it hit the lows, the warning went out that it could go to 113, but it went to £2 instead.

Just making the point before I have a look. My expectation is a continuation up on the back of io2 up to 30k bpd. IO3 built and an admission that's it's rather better than indicated, plus the water permit.

There are plenty of potential surprises about to add to that.

[bogg1e] 15/7/2013 20:23

sg1, cheers.

[malachey] 15/7/2013 20:14

Yes Skylite, am here long term so it doesn't actually matter to me if there is news this week/month or not (the share price is certainly getting along fine without it anyway). I was just curious after the comments made last week and the week before.

come to think of it i will benefit more if there is no share price boosting news, as it will mean i will have the chance to stuff more iof shares into a trading ISA

[superg1] 15/7/2013 20:02

Boggle

The notes cover generic plants. E.G. First Columbus have io3 as 125mt. They have done a detailed report with a good understanding but have been conservative, as will be proved once io2 up top full speed and io3 data appear. Then all the forecasts will be shown to be a little out.

You can't argue with the maths.

BPD/7000 x ppm = kg per day.

The BPD/7000 (7000 b = 1 mill litres, which is 90% of 7000 barrels). That gives the yield rate which they quote as 90% and higher.


Like I said many moons ago, io2 and 3 and ..... at full speed will be 450mt plus units.

Some could be quite a bit higher.

When you start to compare what others have spent for such production rates, it is very impressive.

[skylite] 15/7/2013 19:56

Malachey it's always and always will be a bb staple topic of when a company should release news. There's some due but when? No-one knows. Tomorrow, Wednesday? Maybe but BoDs that are in control of things usually have a plan that they adhere to. The share price has responded well after the Monday madness and appears to be strong - like Russia.

What will happen will happen. If you're invested over the medium/long term then things will be fine for you. Even the bears amongst us admit that over time this has the rosey glow of a significant growth stock.

Enjoy the Mediterranean weather all!

[n3tleylucas] 15/7/2013 19:35

"had been hoping for an update today based on ... "

lol

[bogg1e] 15/7/2013 19:27

Could be montana water asset news?

[malachey] 15/7/2013 19:02

had been hoping for an update today based on the 'in the next ten days' mail received and kindly shared by Ansana (see post 4843) and hints dropped by others the week before last...

anyone know any more on this? a rather hopeful question I know, but if you don't ask you don't get :-)

malachey.

[engelo] 15/7/2013 18:14

Lib: no expert on either, but aren't CEY and GKP alike in needing a solution to dire political problems to realise their true potential? Political problems is an understatement, it's religion- and race-based politics in both cases.

Fwiw I would expect relative stability to return to Egypt quicker than to Iraq.

[rogerbridge] 15/7/2013 18:10

Thanks Monty.

[monty panesar] 15/7/2013 18:07

3 brokers have a buy recommendation on IOF namely Investec, First Columbus and Redmayne Bentley.

(IOF)
Although it appears in the Oil & Gas sector, Iofina is more of an oil-and-gas-services-speciality-chemicals-producer. It has small interests in water and natural gas assets but iodine production is the core of its business. It removes the element from the salty waste water that is a by-product of shale oil and gas production.

Iofinas main products include IPBC, an iodine biocide used in paint, wood protection and personal care products. Methyl iodide is a soil fumigant that also has use as a vital catalyst in acetic acid manufacture. Other products are used to disinfect and sanitise, for etching silicon compounds for semiconductor and electronic components and to determine the density of minerals in the gem industry.

For oil and gas producers the brackish by-product of their process constitutes a significant cost. The average oil well yields about 7.6 barrels of salt water for every barrel of oil. Iofina can turn this wastewater into cash flow which is a very attractive business model for the oil and gas producers.

The market for iodine products has been dominated by Chilean and Japanese operators for over 50 years, due to naturally occurring sources of iodine. Iofinas directors are looking to challenge this by becoming the worlds leading producer of iodine, being the only independent iodine producer in the USA and controlling the largest currently known reserves in North America. It has developed its own patented process, Wellhead Extraction Technology (WET), allowing low cost production and high operational efficiencies in contrast to other large iodine/gas fields in Mobara, Japan. It costs Iofina around US$10-20 per kg compared to other major producers operating expenditure of US$20-40kg. WET units can be deployed to producers sites. Alternatively Iofinas WET IOsorb plants can be used to process larger volumes, up to 30,000 barrels per day.

The full-year results released on 7th May showed a narrowing loss to US$1.2m, from US$2.8m, and the first positive year of EBITDA of US$194,849. It had strong iodine chemical sales in the first half of 2013. Revenue was higher at US$18.6m, compared to US$16.1m previously.

Investec raised its price target on May 7th from 164p to 230p with a buy target. First Columbus put out their first research note stock on the same day with a 239p target saying, if Iofina can successfully execute its strategy, the Company is likely to become a major global iodine producer in the next few years.


Iofina trades on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM), so the usual caveats of illiquidity and volatility apply, as well as being ineligible for an ISA. Its market capitalisation is around £265m, meaning it is a relatively small company. Risks include the price of its core product, iodine. First Columbus expect the price to remain strong with a range of US$55-65 per kg to continue into 2014.

There has been a lot of progress in the the last couple of years. 2012 saw the build and commissioning of its first plant based on its WET IOsorb technology. The next plant has already been commissioned. The shares have risen strongly, although any further gains are unlikely to be at the same rate. However, it still has potential as a high growth company making good use of waste products form the oil and gas industry. Therefore, whilst this view does not constitute a personal recommendation and any advice given to individual clients would vary according to their personal risk profile and objectives, we rate Iofina a speculative buy at the time of writing.

Robert Kilner, Stockbroker
All prices quoted correct as at 8th May 2013.


Read more: hxxp://www.shareworld.co/index.php/share-spotlight/may-09-2013/#ixzz2Z8QDGy3e

[n3tleylucas] 15/7/2013 17:50

You don't NEED supplements, stop telling lies! In fact taking too much can be dangerous. Iodine is a poison remember.

[bogg1e] 15/7/2013 17:35

Aaaah, The International Council for the Control of Iodine Deficiency Disorders. Sounds like a noble plan, i would back it.

[testuser123] 15/7/2013 16:46

At a guess the human nutrition market has stayed static while the others (LCDs probably) have increased. Like I say though, that's a guess. In terms of the amount used wiki has a page on iodised salt (hxxp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iodized_salt) which states roughly 60 ml of KI per tonne of salt.

I regret not bringing it up at the AGM but once IOF are over the radar I'd like them to consider donating a tonne or two of KI to the ICCIDD. It wouldn't be a big deal in terms of output but would probably be enough for the entire African continent for the year, it would be great PR for both organisations, and it would give investors the warm fuzzies (well, it would for me anyway).

[the librarian] 15/7/2013 16:10

What a lot of shenanigans going on at GKP, difficult to see who is trying to protect what?

[bogg1e] 15/7/2013 15:47

testuser cheers. Yes there's a bit of crossover e.g agricultural products, etc. The Iof presentation from 2009 has the biggies as contrast media, biocides, LCDs and pharmaceuticals. Only 6% apparantly directly used in human nutrition. How the figures have changed since I wouldn't know.

Interesting about the Japanese situation.

In regard to iodine and baking, i know that until the 1950-60's, iodine was used as a dough conditioner in the UK. I dont know about iodinated salt used in the UK. I hope so, its a key ingredient in heavy-metal detoxification.

[testuser123] 15/7/2013 15:32

Hi Bogg1e, human use only accounts for less than 3% of iodine demand to start with, and the majority of that is for dietary supplements (mainly iodinated salt which a lot countries mandate is used in baking). The market for radiation tablets is basically a rounding error.

There was a significant rise in iodine prices during the fukashima incident, but it was due to the fact that japanese iodine production was offline because of the tsunami, rather than because of people buying iodine tablets.

EDIT: Sorry I should point out that I was not including contrast media in that 3% (even though it is sort of a human use).

[bogg1e] 15/7/2013 14:47

orslega, much appreciated.

[orslega] 15/7/2013 14:40

bogg1e - investec - think superg posted the note a while back but I believe the concensus was that investec were very conservative in arriving at their £2.30 target...

hxxp://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/i/iofina-ord-1p/broker-forecasts

[bogg1e] 15/7/2013 14:27

The only broker note regarding Iofina I have found is from morningstar, which appears to be an obligatory report TDWaterhouse bundled into their own information page on IOF. Does anyone know of any other, relatively recent reports? Thanks.

[bogg1e] 15/7/2013 13:22

Hi all, I've mentioned the idea of iodine and the possible rise in consumption globally due to the after effects of Fukushima. Here are a few links that back this rather tragic point:

hxxp://worldtruth.tv/the-radiation-warnings-you-wont-get-from-the-mainstream-propaganda-machine-3/

hxxp://www.naturalnews.com/032048_radiation_milk.html

hxxp://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011/03/government-responds-to-nuclear-accident-by-trying-to-raise-acceptable-radiation-levels-and-pretending-that-radiation-is-good-for-us.html

hxxp://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/medical-journal-article--14000-us-deaths-tied-to-fukushima-reactor-disaster-fallout-135859288.html

A taster:

In 1992, the Environment Protection Agency produced a PAGs manual...now an update to the 1992 manual is being planned, and if the "Dr. Strangelove" wing of the EPA has its way, here is what it means (brace yourself for these ludicrous increases):

A nearly 1000-fold increase for exposure to strontium-90;
A 3000 to 100,000-fold hike for exposure to iodine-131; and
An almost 25,000 rise for exposure to radioactive nickel-63.

The new radiation guidelines would also allow long-term cleanup thresholds thousands of times more lax than anything EPA has ever judged safe in the past.

Happy reading ;-(

[engelo] 15/7/2013 12:25

sg: thanks. Are Ennismore compelled to notify changes to their short position in the same way as % boundary holdings notifications (ie can delay almost indefinitely)?