Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 20/6/2013 19:56

On acreage, the last I knew was Sept.

IOF at some point had 600k acres, but the 3D data allowed them to assess and dump barren looking area's, so they cherry picked what looked like hot spots amounting to 200k acres plus.

Now I thought for a long time that it was just a chunk of land in Hill county, but then found a lease search facility, which shows they are dotted all over the place, going well into Liberty county too.

That's where True oil are with a cluster of oil wells, and they are being secretive with top leasing going on.



If the lease name I have found is IOF's then that top leasing from well positions should be them .

It's now just a case of trying to link up something to prove or disprove that the leases are IOf's.

However, they have said adjacent, and the one's I am looking at are certainly adjacent.

Here are the wells I'm looking at, just hover the arrow over green dots and the info comes up about the wells.

[the librarian] 20/6/2013 19:52

Never been particularly interested in the IOF leased acreage, but the True Oil comment has sparked my curiosity.

If they have found a conventional oil play, I can understand them withholding the information and paying the fines, simply because conventional oil is a much cheaper extraction prospect and profits would be significantly higher than fracking.

Not getting excited, but I am sure IOF will know what is going on in the area as it, (if anything), arises.

[superg1] 20/6/2013 19:51

Engelo

All excited here, daft really, as I may have realised a lease name IOF may be under.

You see Oil and gas leases are smoke and mirrors to slow up the process of getting leases of someone gets an oil strike etc.

True Oil have found conventional Oil is what we have been told. well there is lease name I'm very curious about. The energy company name on the leases don't seem to show they have any interest in the area on their website, so I suspect the leases may be IOF's. A bit to do yet. Where's Rugrat when you need him. lol.

There is a little detail that supports it may be IOF, if it is then ...........

I have already confirmed 5 lease names IOF have from old digging. The word Adjacent had me digging a while back. The words conventional oil have had me digging all afternoon. I'm hoping I'm right.

[naphar] 20/6/2013 19:47

And more predictable, at which point I hope forecasts may be a bit more forthcoming.

[writz] 20/6/2013 19:19

Titus, many thanks for you insight on TA. It's a fascinating thing - and I wonder what charts would look like if nobody could look at them, if you see what I mean! Re SUK2, I seldom use automated stops, for the inverse reason that they've sometimes failed to trigger on high volume moves. I agree - better to wear the camouflage.

[scrutable] 20/6/2013 19:17

I have not seen reported (but might have overlooked)Dr Fay's indication that the chemical factory will be pushing it to convert 800mT/pa and 1000mts will be the absolute limit.

I missed any indication (if it was made) that management was planning an extension, though we know that the site is plenty large enough for any internal requirement CF reiterated that all he could best achieve was to ensure that new plants came on stream efficiently and on time. The staff are fully stretched and must prioritise.

[engelo] 20/6/2013 19:13

sg: thanks for some heavy duty facts and projections through to-day. Was very confident about IOF's prospects before the AGM/RNS events, but now even more so.

A small point but could you clear it up please? Talking to CF after the meeting he thought that IOF's acreage was less than 200k after they sold off their 'surplus', but said 'Lance will know' :-)

[scrutable] 20/6/2013 19:06

Plasbryn

sg has also found difficulty as I have in making a forecast for 2014 look credible.

The AGM confirmed incredible profit margins of £40/kg for any xxxx going right through to an end product (I have used xxxx to deceive searches from abroad as the number is sensitive). The exit rate at the end of 2014 can easily be calculated from published knowledge of the number of plants divulged as going in with the total being many times the current 70kgs/day. Cash flow is going to be explosive - far more than the typical share watcher can imagine, and that's all that I believe should be said in writing. By the time the general market cottons on the share price should be worth also several times the multiple of today's.

[titus10] 20/6/2013 19:04

WRITZ
If you trade SUK2, suggest being wary with stops. It seems the HFT (High Frequency Trading) algorithm guys are active in this one, so one risks getting stops spiked out, in my experience of SB trading it with IG Index.

[titus10] 20/6/2013 18:55

On price gaps. If unusual for the share involved, just show something causes a sudden response - a news item, rumour, whatever - overnight, possibly prompting pre-placing of Orders at Open. Many 'thin' (low cap) shares gap a lot, both ways, inconsequentially.

If it's unusual for an individual share, second thoughts by participants may lead to a reaction which fills the gap. Or is it just a tribal myth, or superstition, that says the gap must be filled? So many price patterns are, one may suspect, caused by such herd behaviour and are of little value for long-term investment decision making.

Nevertheless, it can be useful to remember that prices move, in the short-term at least, not in accordance with fundamental economic laws but because humans react as employees to house rules, or as individuals to impulses of greed or fear, buying or selling accordingly.

Is Technical Analysis of price movements really a black art? Little did I know that an early school education in politics & economics had stirred an inkling of understanding of the human action & reaction patterns which actually underly stock market activity. The pennies dropped, one by one, eventually - helped by many years of study and practical involvement with my own earnings in industry and management consultancy.

Like much else, it pays to sort the wheat from the chaff. No, the gaps don't HAVE to get filled, one finds. Just a bit of fun?

[madchick] 20/6/2013 18:42

escape - yes, that was me with the short brown hair (new haircut so shorter than I was expecting :-)

Thanks to whoever explained about "Chris".

[plasybryn] 20/6/2013 18:28

Scrutable: thanks for your projections which are helpful to someone like me who likes to have hard numbers.
I can see the real excitment comes in 2014, when it becomes a real cash generating machine.
I would like to see more Broker comment on the financials & perhaps that will follow now.

[titus10] 20/6/2013 18:13

Escapetohome (2707)
"at what price would you consider the uptrend no longer in place?"

If I knew that I'd presumably leave a GTC Sell order in place at that price. A trend in motion is a trend is a trend; one looks for signs of developing inconsistency in the price sequence picture (monthly, weekly, daily, hourly - whatever perspective aligns with one's interest).

At present, for an investor, IOF is technically easy (imo): apply regression analysis which shows the true trend as a straight line through the centre of the data set followed - ShareScope have that set up for you at a click or two - to your log-scaled chart. I use 2.5 Standard Deviations for the Confidence Lines either side of that central trend. The trend line, in other words, is the straight line that best fits the data. The confidence lines, which run parallel to the trend, give an idea of how definite the trend is - the closer together the lines are, the stronger the trend (to use ShareScope's definition).

In effect, price oscillates within this channel and alerts when the confidence lines are nudged or penetrated. The slope of the trend may be read off in terms of percentage change p.a. for the data period viewed, so rises or falls in that slope number indicate strengthening or weakening in that trend.

Unfortunately I'm not geeky enough to discover how to post ShareScope charts here (it needs other software and I don't have the time, to be honest). If I could, one picture would be worth a thousand words, but can tell you that since the present bull move in IOF started in Oct 2011, price has advanced at a mean rate of 344% p.a. until now and is presently pretty much right on the centre trend line, having been on or above it for most of this year.

This is just one way of looking at IOF price charts at this time. I use other devices, pretty much subconsciously now, to question or corroborate this simple trend watching method.

One mantra I recall from long-ago TA seminars is "rising trends end when there's nobody left to buy". According to SG, if I may paraphrase: "They aint seen nothing yet".

Sorry I can't answer your question. Do I need to?

[warrensearle] 20/6/2013 17:50

Writz - no it's a leveraged ETFSearch for ETFX Ftse 100 super short strategy (2x) fund

[naphar] 20/6/2013 17:44

Sg, re 2732 "Patent expected any day"

So as not to create false expectations, my understanding from Lance at the end was that timeline for official patent grant is 1-4 months from payment. Payment was about a month ago, so grant should be from now up to 3 months away. CK said so any day now then,Lance said yes. Maybe any day is a bit like imminent. I am pencilling it in for roughly 3 months away, latest, any sooner will be good news.

[the librarian] 20/6/2013 17:32

The way I understand it is that the company writes the details and the NOMAD decides whether the wording is acceptable and may pare the information down

i.e. 'For the mobile units, the Group has identified new sites which have hyper iodine content but low brine volumes.'

Like I have said previously, Investec will never use a positive where negatives will do, but, is that what the company writer originally wrote.... we will never know I suppose.

Let's hope the PR person can ensure that better explained and timely information is provided.

[n3tleylucas] 20/6/2013 17:32

SCRUTABLE,

Well done. 18th. Volume! 224,062

[cityboy5] 20/6/2013 17:13

Hopefully one of the 1st executive recommendations our new CEO will put to the BoD will be to dispense with the services of the appointed Nomad and move elsewhere. They have made a series of blunders here, particularly in the wording within the last 3 RNS's released, which seriously evidence that they are taking fees without giving best advice to their client. However, from a personal point of view it has enabled me to strengthened my actual holding at less cost..... Keep the faith....

[scrutable] 20/6/2013 17:11

I recently posted that Dr Fay's presentation was incredible, the best I have ever enjoyed at any of 30 AGMs - as to fluency, range, forward visibility and detail but he is not a PR man. He does not use words to shine the brightest light on the given facts, and some of them were hardly spotted.
(please excuse my mixed metaphor. I hope you will still 'see' my point!)

[writz] 20/6/2013 17:10

Warrensearle, is SUK2 a Covered Warrant?

[superg1] 20/6/2013 16:48

Scrut

All borne out of a poor rns showing good news.

The one negative that was relevant was a 4mt shift in June, with new brine to more than compensate for that it Q3.

The positives were were unaware of were io3 started with io4 close behind.

Now found 'Hyper' ppm wells. Clearly plenty of bpd as they are talking future 50k plants. Pods to feature and lucrative with a couple expected H2.

Montana water permit going fine and over half way through indicated time lines.

They said 90 days and 48 days in.

Patent expected any day