Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[croc8] 21/6/2013 14:39

Hew you are way off the mark. The contracts are already in place with the oilies and IOF hold the iodine leases. There are no alternatives for the oilies. With all due respect your post is a red herring.

[maca1212] 21/6/2013 14:35

sg,

Thanks for that - one things for sure on this board you don't have to wait too long for an answer!

Is IOF the only source of that info? I would have expected HCI/CI2 emission non compliance notices to be served or some formal process to have delivered a legal ban that would have left a public footprint of some kind.

Anyone with an incinerator for public waste or making PVC is at some level likely to be emitting these chemicals too.

M

[warmsun] 21/6/2013 14:33

remp31 21 Jun'13 - 13:35 - 2880 of 2894 0 0

what froth off the price? it had already consolidated plus the lance rns knocked it back.all the talk was plus 250 post agm so poor show really.i got in early so still sitting pretty but having spread the story to friends and relatives many who have invested recently it all leaves a bad taste in the mouth.
==========

Good post and one with which I agree, particularly the final sentence.

[freshvoice] 21/6/2013 14:31

191 gap has been closed now.

[hew] 21/6/2013 14:31

I am concerned at the recent chat about highlighting our actual production potential in combination with SG's intimation that the prime brine sources are highly concentrated - in location as well as ppm.

If there is a small hotspot area, surely there are just a small number of brine supply operators (as few as one or two even?) who will appreciate what a valuable commodity they are providing, for, I understood, relatively little at present. I've rather lost track of used brine disposal arrangements but if we are not helping operators out in that respect, isn't there the possibility that they will want to review their royalty arrangements? "How does 50/50 of your iodine production sound to you IOF?" Not terminal of course but a large dent in the numbers.

As has been long said by some (me included), I believe our activities and progress are being monitored carefully by the iodine industry. All that is unknown is the numbers: both production and timing. But I doubt the brine providers have us in their sights at present.

It may be annoying to us now, but I'm sympathetic to cool and cloudy RNSs etc. Provided the fundamentals remain sound - and that is a matter of trust - I say keep our heads down for as long as possible. If an earlyish takeover offer is inevitable, and I expect likely, we want royalty arrangements to be minimal at the time it comes. If we do have a medium term destiny, that becomes a new game in many respects.

If I'm on the wrong track in this, I'll be pleased to be put right.

[engelo] 21/6/2013 14:30

Fwiw a few observations:

Came away from the AGM having learned a few things but nowhere near the level of knowledge that I have gained from the board.

CF was definitely underplaying: we need no deeper analysis than 'plant payback period of 1 year'.

After the meeting I overheard the mysterious Chris (HL??) saying to CF 'why can't you get accurate figures on capex and opex out to the market?'

Agree with Roboben and others that IOF can still see a benefit in the under the radar stance (based on calculations for the longer term) vs the upbeat but accurate stance (which would please most of us here). The delays to I03 have paradoxically made the under the radar stance easier to maintain.

All in all we are talking about a difference of 2 to 3 months when the wraps will be off.

Imo CF is finding his acting role quite stressful (wouldn't we all) and some urging from us might help to tip the balance as to whether key items like full operation of I02 and patent receipt are RNSed once achieved.

[diggulden] 21/6/2013 14:29

190 was tested on the bid yesterday, I watched it happen on L2.

[maca1212] 21/6/2013 14:29

librarian,

Interesting point but I thought that the woodford trench was selected as the specific site for all of the preexisting iodine extraction plants aftre dow canned their operations in California then Michigan precisely because of its unique formation - a paleovalley as I recall.

This meant that it had in effect become a reservoir of iodine rich brine that leached out of the rock formations 'uphill'. The combination of high(ish) ppm but more importantly reservoir volume, is what made Amoco, despite highr PPM's elsewhere settle on this spot.

It would be unwise to speculate that all other iodine rich sources (and particularly from hydraulic fracking) would provide either the daily barrelage or the sustained production that the trench has yielded across a very long lifecycle with multiple producers.

It also has to be remembered that if the IOF process piggy backs gas and oil production it will have to go where they are, and be subject to any disruption that is necessary to provide and/or facilitate continued gas and oil production, as I understand it being a mid-stream or lowest cost producer is at least partly based upon paying very modest royalties if any.

Of course I could be wrong, and there might be the equivalent of another woodford trench iodine 'gusher' out there yet to be tapped, but if there is I think that the commercials would have to be slightly different.

M

[everybodywangchungtonight] 21/6/2013 14:28

Yesterdays low was 191.25 So support at 190 not yet tested.

Coco's gap at 190-198p now filled.

[diggulden] 21/6/2013 14:24

190 offered solid support yesterday, let's see if it does again today.

[skylite] 21/6/2013 14:17

I knew it, I could feel a low rumble overhead as you browsed the BB.

[scrutable] 21/6/2013 14:15

skyelight
scrutable is already stirred - but not yet shaken

[the librarian] 21/6/2013 14:06

Spike has answered it Bogg1e, but Toyota under different guises have been on the same brines since the 80's. In some cases the plant will need upgrading before the brines do. They also have the option of tapping into old SWD wells if the need arises.... I suppose the answer would be that it is not a concern at the moment considering the no. of wells going in between now and 2020.

[n3tleylucas] 21/6/2013 14:01

Bogg1e,

Well it's more than interesting when you consider that pi's have certainly got well over the blocking 25% plus 1 share here. I consider battery's figures as conservative, considering that there were over 200 posters seeking to access the new private bb, and only around 125 had informed battery of their holdings.

[spike_1] 21/6/2013 13:57

How long: Chris Fay reckons 30 - 40 years could often be do-able.

[spike_1] 21/6/2013 13:55

Naphar: re

Spike, I disagree with one part of your post specifically:-
"If the bid is hostile, Board will recommend Institutions (we won't matter) not to accept."

I take your point Naphar. I worded it badly, I'll try again;

Regardless of how much PI's might not accept a take-over, it is the Institutions that need to be persuaded that the valuation is too low.

Best wishes - Mike

[bogg1e] 21/6/2013 13:52

netley - interesting about 75% acceptance for takeovers. Nice factoid there.

Lib, sg interesting in regard to Toyota. Well for now then it looks like japan and chile tie-ins are not gonna happen. Toyota could afford to buy them though.

Qustin - if an IO plant has an operating life of 15 years, thatt doesnt mean it will sit for 15 years on one well head. So how long will each IO plant be required at each location/well - 6 months? 2 years? (I know its one of them how long is a piece of string questions but an idea or two would be good)

[n3tleylucas] 21/6/2013 13:50

That's ridiculous Spike, there was a change to the AGM resolutions, so reference to Lance had to be stated both before and after the vote. You are not having a very good posting session mate! LOL ...

Go have a drink.

[spike_1] 21/6/2013 13:36

I had a go at Chris Fay during the 1 on 1 for 'killing' Lance twice (excuse the vulgar terminology), but I explained he should have noted in the 2nd RNS that L was already on sick leave and arrangements were already in place - and working - to minimise any fallout.

Edit: I have taken out his reply, suffice to say there was no obvious contrition.

His excuse for the last RNS (night before 1.30 in morning) is utterly un-acceptable given the AGM has been known about for weeks.

Best wishes - Mike

[remp31] 21/6/2013 13:35

what froth off the price? it had already consolidated plus the lance rns knocked it back.all the talk was plus 250 post agm so poor show really.i got in early so still sitting pretty but having spread the story to friends and relatives many who have invested recently it all leaves a bad taste in the mouth.

[neddo] 21/6/2013 13:33

They really don't know just how good Iofina's position is at this stage ? and we do. come on get real.