Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[warrensearle] 19/6/2013 18:11

Oh and he did mention the differing OPEX costs and sale costs between Montana and North Dakota but someone stole him away before he could finish

[scrutable] 19/6/2013 17:54

never been to an AGM with so much spirit. It was almost a party.
Perhaps this was because of Dr Fay's outstanding update -lucid, substantial, inclusive of all levels of knowledge about the business, fluent and relaxed,
whether dealing with his major target: Production, or Investment planning, or Iodine chemistry,or applications in the market, or competition or in fact on any relevant subject. A tour de force without pausing for breath, continuing afterwards with individual shareholders until driven desperate to break off to deal with nature's call.

Investors are unusually fortunate in having a Chairman with this all round mastery of what matters. They can sleep the good sleep knowing that the business will continue to be run more than well until he can hand over.

I only had one personal regret - though few others will share it. I could not get him to reveal his secret personal targets for the business. He was reluctant to quantify anything about 2014, no doubt with vast knowledge of what Nomads expect in terms laconic.

On the other hand I got him to admit in private that the company's margins were truly remarkable (as sg has often told us) - nowhere more so than for etching gases. Once the scale up of production is well under way, more attention will have to be given to the build up of global marketing to optimise sales in sectors with the greatest value added.

Also on a similar tack Paul Chase-Gardener, a long term on-exec said how concerned he was to reduce the number of tubs of raw iodine stacked around waiting for further value adding processes. There is room for lots of profitable new initiatives but for the moment everyone is concentrating on getting IO#3/4/5/6 in and and bedded down.

My overall conclusion: scale up has been more taxing than expected, with delays brought about by decisions to optimise the effects of tasks in hand and simplify the future eg standardisation of plant design.

'Delivery' of plants has been a bit ambiguous with beginning and end of construction, commissioning, and the reaching of max production levels coalescing in investors' minds. We are IMO six months behind, with delivery of IO#3 in Q2 2013 morphing into commissioning in Q3, and full production by end 2013.

But on the plus side,plants IO#7 onwards will play 'catch up', emerge faster, and bed down faster - and there will be an EXPLOSION OF CASH GENERATION to more than x5 times current levels around April 2014 onwards - from today's 700kg/.day to 4+Tons/day. That means £50+m/pa profit, and with a deserved PE of x20 and low taxation next year is consistent with x3 times the current share value.

And that will be the true beginning of visibility for all, of that which is then credible and coming.

For the moment patience is required but all is very well and the course predictable,
(tornados and black swans as always permitting)

[bobbyshilling] 19/6/2013 17:48

Coco, I thought it was management themselves that were keeping things low profile, didn't we have a comment today about not wanting to give too much away to competitors, at least I think someone who attended posted words along those lines, which were supposedly said at the meeting.

[che7win] 19/6/2013 17:46

Eeza,
Apologies if I offended anyone; however you need to NOT trust anyone on these boards.

My comment about no research was referring to Iof.

[mikkydhu] 19/6/2013 17:44

A few things I took away from the AGM:

CF stressed the quality of their staff, especially their young chemists, and the teams doing the roll out work. Their chemical expertise is very important.

Impressed with their flexibility. Always learning from IO1 and IO2. Always looking for better ways to do things and adjusting to requirements of different brines at different sites.

Sensitive to the other parties they work with, eg apparently not selling the 200 bbls of oil they received with the brine the other day...might upset the operator. Having plant installation held up while a farmer harvests his crops. So easy to rub people up the wrong way, so it's good that they don't.

CF was very open when asked at the end what his main worries/concerns were. He said achieving the roll out and finding the new CEO.

Personally not concerned at time slippages. I have confidence, as the company does, in the technology. It's only a matter of time. The expertise is there. And once about 8 plants are up and running, in my opinion if there are weather or operator problems, they are likely to affect an ever smaller part of the whole IOF operation. Only need patience.

[diggulden] 19/6/2013 17:39

Good post Coco.

Thanks for the updates from all at the AGM today.

Delivery is on the way, it's going to take a little longer than had first anticipated, but remain reasonably on track.

[xippy] 19/6/2013 17:33

Yes good news about Lance being at the AGM. Pleased he felt able to make the journey over. I wish him all the best and some relaxation time to enjoy the fruits of his labours. He's done a great job in putting all the right building blocks in place for what should become an excetionally profitable company.

I do hope the volatility will calm down now. I think it attracts the wrong kind of attention.

Presumably there will be presentations to some more UK institutions folloing today's AGM, as they are over here, would be a shame not to talk to some of the big boys.

[noli] 19/6/2013 17:33

Looking at logics, it should be a lot easier putting 1 x MI online with high ppm on a 4k site than bringing 1 plant online doing 20 to 30k bpd or x amount of wells to fill the plant.

[cocorico2009] 19/6/2013 17:29

fwiw

notwithstanding that it is 'expected' for a young company going through a phase of exceptional growth for unforseen delays and unrealistic timeframes to be rumoured or released

however, i feel that things are made a lot worse by the expectations of some continually being amplified (volumes & rates) and accelerated (timeframes) beyond the current 'truth' on the premise that things are being 'played down' or 'kept under the radar'

manipulating information both rumoured and fact and adding 'false' value to the 'true situation' only serves to highten expectation and increase disappointment when things subsequently dont turn out to be as good as the spin doctors make out to be

furthermore this behaviour inadvertantly gives credence to those naysayers that dont necessarily have an axe to grind over IOF as an investment, but simply find those with rose-tinted views, a milder and sometimes equal trait to ramping, hellbent on proving a point



there has undoubtedly been repeated cases of failed/missed deadlines within the operations and management of this company, but most seem to palm it off or refuse to acknowledge it has happened

too many people here are living in denial

from a TA point of view, the best thing that could happen short term (not saying it will, but as we are now so close, half of me hopes it does) is for the share price to dip further and fill the gap 190-198

this would add much greater strength going forward and underpin future rises


happy to be holding
coco

[rogerbridge] 19/6/2013 17:24

Steady as she goes. No fireworks today but a realistic and forward looking agm statement. As has been said the share price will increase as L&G finish dumping and IO3 comes on line and then further progress as the roll out comes into fruition. Would have liked a more positive reaction, but progress is being made and I am happy enough.

[bobbyshilling] 19/6/2013 17:19

hew, you've said it really, though I would just like to add that we seem to have a larger upside on the horizon with 'hyper' ppm and possibly 50,000bpd units to look forward to. Could accelerate iodine production even more rapidly.

[hew] 19/6/2013 17:08

Thanks for all reports. Glad to hear of the matter of fact, we are just doing it, tone. There has been quite enough hype for a while. Steady progress along the planned course, without undue focus on the timescale, will take care of the share price. The technology is sound, the implementation resources and process are organised, the plants now beyond the prototype and proving stages and into standardisation and the brine input flows increasingly established. Of course there will be hiccups and as investors in a new venture we must accept the black swan possibility, but I'm glad to think that those seeking daily excitement should now look elsewhere.

Edit: And pleased to hear of Lance's presence.

[diggulden] 19/6/2013 17:06

Yea let's move on, not interested in going over this again.

[eeza] 19/6/2013 16:55

CR is a well respected poster.
He is an extremely successful investor willing to share his views with others.

Post 2478 WELL out of order & should be retracted with apology IMO.

[cockneyrebel] 19/6/2013 16:42

"che7win 19 Jun'13 - 14:37 - 2478 of 2488 2 0

CR did zero research, yet pumps up companies like NANO without any idea of the royalty deal with Dow.

He has a dodgy past, best to give him a wide berth"

Thanks for the defamatory comment - and incorrect.

I have done my research on NANO as much as I can and brokers suggest the royalty rate for NANO from Dow is around 25%, possibly higher.

CR

[joeblogg2] 19/6/2013 16:41

warm. I echo that. Very dissapointing reaction and can only think some expected more and possibly some more selling by L&G?

[warmsun] 19/6/2013 16:39

Well, given that I am very very heavily in IOF, today could have gone a tad better.........(in terms of the sp)....

[engelo] 19/6/2013 16:22

worraps: yes, very good description :-)

[diggulden] 19/6/2013 16:16

Sounds like they are trying to tone down the hype... not a bad thing in my opinion.

[worraps] 19/6/2013 16:15

Thanks, engelo. My impression so far, is that CF is a low key personality, delivers info in a matter of fact way, no frills or euphoria? Is that right, would you say?

[engelo] 19/6/2013 16:08

A few points from the AGM:

Followed unconventional format: CF gave potted history of IOF, then lengthy period for questions, then the formal business (which was a formality).

By definition, little new information in Chris Fay's talk. CF covering much the same ground as JP at the PI presentation, but in a matter of fact English way. Where he didn't know the answer, he said so: eg how long the wells will be shut down for the drilling, which in turn impacts exactly when I03/4 will be operational.

Stena and Hargreave Hale were represented at the meeting. Obviously there may have been more IIs. My guess would be about 80 people at the meeting, compared with about 6 a year ago.

CEO recruitment will take as long as it takes to get the right person. Could be 1 month, could be 2 or 3. Will have to be based in the States. Headhunters in action. Co restructured into 'empowered areas' to cope with the current situation.

I03 'sitting on site' with I02, less than 5 miles away.

I01-3 titanium based from Ukraine made by 'hand bashing' technology :-) (Contact with Ukraine will be maintained possibly to make equipment other than plants.)

I03 'end Q3',I04 1 month later.

More than 1 mini Iosorb this year.

Mini iosorbs could feed I02 for final stage of process.

Bond issue to speed rollout as previously explained. However 'may cash in early'.

Could design larger plants post I06. No longer constrained by shipping containers, could be say 4m diameter: throughput would be proportional to sq of diameter. However this will be carefully considered and not rushed into.

Prill tower going to Kentucky. will be ordered this year after careful concept and detailed design.

Will definitely be selling raw iodine in 2014.

Payback for plants less than 1 year.

Taking an example of 8 plants @ 200 tonnes in 18 months would be supplying 10% of world market.

Many patents and trademarks pending. However to let too much info out would be an advantage to competitors.

As previously posted, halfway through the 90 day water wait time. work still to be done so no water revenue expected this year. ND 'more competitive' as Jeff said, so may or may not go ahead there.

At this point in time, focus is firmly on I03-6 (and CEO recruitment).

edit: post meeting asked CF about size of acreage. He thought less than 200,000 acres. 'Lance will know' he said but I didn't manage to ask him :-)

[awolagain] 19/6/2013 16:03

Who was looking for 205??...it could happen before close of business!!