Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[roundup] 05/12/2014 09:24

The discussion about decline of brine is only academic in any case, because fracking is not going to come to an end, not now or ever.

[che7win] 05/12/2014 09:24

I've just topped up, quite happy to add at these prices.

Rug,
yes indeed, 100 miles of pipelines supplying IO#2 and Mid-States ramping up production by 40% next year, makes good reading.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 05/12/2014 09:03

Unusually quiet here? Let it drift Banksy, must be a few stops and margin-calls around 30. Knock them out and you might get 25. gl

[che7win] 05/12/2014 08:46

"ammons 5 Dec'14 - 07:31 - 27520 of 27522 0 0

Perhaps lack of mobiles is due to lack of money and the need to optimise the static plant first? Would they not need to build a prototype mobile, test, iron out any issues, retest and so on before roll out? "

ammons,
one thing is for sure, lack of mobiles is not due to lack of money - they had $7,500,000 in cash or cash equivalents at last count.

It is probably as you say - they stated they were going to concentrate on the 6 plants rolling out (last one only in operation a few months) and that is probably the reason.

My point is NOT about rolling out mobile plants, but putting one (a prototype) in the field as done with IO#1 and seeing how it operates and learning from it.

One thing at a time though.

[superg1] 05/12/2014 08:03

Fest

I took your comment to be about a decline post 2019.

That's why I added the figures as the current rate is 170,000 bpd to the 6 SWDs.

In 2019 they anticipate it will be 470,000 bpd and by that time 2 more SWDs added.

In 15 years time which is about the life of a plant they rate is anticipated to be the same as now, but is anticipated to go up over 250% in the next 4 years.

It is an example from midstates. Sandridge (with IOF) in the area have over 20 times the acreage Midstates have. So do we estimate 9 million bpd of water in 2019 for them



Che

The pipeline comment is in the presentation. It's something we have always posted about. In OK it's a web of pipelines interlinked, hence with buried pipelines there is little change in the water temp.

They use pipelines in OK as trucking so much water would make wells uneconomical. OK wells have the highest water cut in the US with many on a 10 to 1 ratio. Some wells can be 50 to 1 and higher.

[ammons] 05/12/2014 07:31

Perhaps lack of mobiles is due to lack of money and the need to optimise the static plant first? Would they not need to build a prototype mobile, test, iron out any issues, retest and so on before roll out?

[che7win] 05/12/2014 07:07

Engelo,
TUNG is on shorters radar, nothing to keep it at that price, it was always overvalued in the short term IMHO.

Long term, the market will decide, but it's going down from here.

RUG, you make a good point on the brine flowing through IO2 location, something to investigate further.
I'll read your link later on.

Fest, if you're referring to me, I don't post one track bullish comments, you don't know me if you think I do.
I have always brought up positives and negatives on here, on TPL (which ousted their board members), on JLP and other stocks I follow.

I made it clear pulling communications by IOF was a mistake, I have said lack of mobiles in the field a mistake etc.

[pcjoe] 05/12/2014 00:15

Nice one Rug - Picked up a few of these very recently & back in the game again - Earlier than expected but seatbelt fastened & ready to go!

[festario] 05/12/2014 00:01

Cyber, no I was not. I was more concerned about the more erudite,(and Bullish) posters on here disagreeing about the life span of viable brine supply to our 'cash machines'
Let's face it, the share price is down the toilet at the moment, news is non-existent, and to have those on here who deeply understand the Iodine and Fracking industry not in agreement on something so fundamental gave me cause for concern.

[dorset64] 04/12/2014 23:43

good to see you ruggers, hope you're well fella and business is good.

[engelo] 04/12/2014 23:39

Che OT: your analysis of TUNG seems to have persuaded the market ;-)

[rugrat2] 04/12/2014 23:00

It has occurred to me in the past that brine could pass through IO#2 but be pumped on through the network to another swd site for disposal, if it suited the operator for whatever reason.

[rugrat2] 04/12/2014 22:55

Che, try the following link to a presentation given yesterday, specifically page 35. You will see the reference to the 100 miles of pipeline. On the map IO#2 is slap bang in the middle of the network (the third point in the network from the southern end)

[cyberbub] 04/12/2014 22:30

Festario, are you being sarcastic? I don't see IO2's brine volumes peaking in 5 years time as being "oh sh*t", it means 5 years of a cash machine underpinning our continued growth. Everything comes to an end - but IO2 will still go on for years after 2019, perhaps at lower volumes... hopefully by then it will be a small cog in our massive network of sites?! :-)

[che7win] 04/12/2014 22:12

Rugrat / superg,
Thanks for your replies.

I couldn't find brine data on our local wells, but I did find this for Pennsylvania (page 20) on:



Rugrat, I awknowledge that this is a different location and will have different characteristics.
Also, you have just mentioned Midstates 100 miles of pipelines which I wasn't aware of, so this is starting to look a bit academic.

Are you sure that IO2 SWD is networked into such a massive pipeline?

Your figures are interesting, IOF stated Sept 13:
" The production outlook at IO#2 is positive considering the continuous development of oil wells with high iodine concentration brine being tied into IO#2. Recently a 12 inch brine pipeline was installed at IO#2 by the Operator to increase capacity. Initial volumes exceeded c.50,000 Barrels per Day. While this recent increase is expected to decline during drilling and fracking programmes, overall volume should afford excess brine over plant capacity. "

[rugrat2] 04/12/2014 21:34

Just had a look at the OCC website for UIC Injection volumes.



They take an age to record brine volumes, so the most up to date figures are to Dec 2013 (and it's a big spreadsheet!) IO#2 is at the Longhurst SWD site and the figures below are the downhole bwpd for that well for 2012 and 2013 respectively.

JANUARY 27553 17643
FEBRUARY 22714 12298
MARCH 17577 9441
APRIL 27382 14883
MAY 31478 13383
JUNE 29983 8694
JULY 29561 7849
AUGUST 25757 11991
SEPTEMBER 5825 18735
OCTOBER 9556 19282
NOVEMBER 24313 19592
DECEMBER 28859 19419

Probably not what you might have expected? (Yes, I do have the columns in the right order!). The MidStates brine network is over 100 miles long from memory, and with all but one of the relevant SWD wells interconnected, so lots of options for brine disposal, as circumstances change through the year.

For example the low figures in September and October 2012 – the SWD caught fire late August, and the missing balance for disposal went down the hole at Dacoma, a couple of miles down the road. As we have come to realise the low figures in summer 2013 were probably the result of our old friend, the fracking issue. Not sure when the 50k figure emerged, but earlier this year I think. I’ll try to remember to look out for the 2014 file on OCC in a few months’ time.

[superg1] 04/12/2014 20:56

If it's off none.

If an employee gets bored and keeps playing with the on/off switch then a bit of disruption.

If it's been running at good bpd 18k to 30k rates then it should be in the range of .7mt to 1.2mt on it's own, but I've no idea what ppm rates new brine may be.

All I know is when io2 is purring it's a cash machine.

The talk was in early October that 1,4 to 1.7mt per day were being hit with io5 and 6 to be tweaked to get the best out of them.

The last news was all on track expecting to hit the forecast rate. They need about 36mt per month to hit the low target rate.

[superg1] 04/12/2014 20:47

The figures from that presentation.

170,000 bpd of brine currently going to 6 SWDs, one of those will be io2.

The capacity of those 6 SWDs is 345,000 to 430,000.

They plan to add 2 more SWDs with an expected peak brine rates of 470,000 bpd in 2019.

They list the next 2 SWDs as having a 70,000 bpd capacity.

[engelo] 04/12/2014 20:35

gadolinium: many thanks for detailed info re British Library! Readers pass will open new worlds :-)

[engelo] 04/12/2014 20:33

SG: what would be your best guess as to the production rate at I02 right now?

[superg1] 04/12/2014 20:19

Thanks Rug I missed that link but to pick on the point you raised last time

'their disposal volume is estimated to peak in 2019 at over twice the current level, entailing two more planned SWD wells in Q1 16 and Q1 17. My additional line shows that disposal volumes should not reduce below current levels for at least 15 years (in 2031)'

To add from me

I also recall their production has increased significantly over the last 2 years, so compared to the brine around when Io2 was first built in 15 years it will still be multiples of when io2 was put in place.

Io2 started on 18,700 bpd and at some point the brine going to that SWD went up to 51,000 bpd which won't be far off the limit for the SWD.

[rugrat2] 04/12/2014 19:42

che and sg, having read through today's posts on the subject of brine volumes, I'll have to stick my oar in!
This has been a contentious subject before on here, and having done my research and mailed a young petroleum engineer in Oklahoma in July last year, I posted on here (post 4534). Unfortunately the last link in the post to Sunrise Exploration is no longer good, but their graph of oil, gas and brine decline is there for all to see.
I haven’t been posting much recently, but a mega sized MidStates presentation caught my eye recently – see post 27208. The graph on page 108, which I added to (second link), clearly shows that MidStates expect the brine volume to decrease from a peak in 2019, on their current development plan. I would have thought that that was as conclusive a proof as anyone on here could want.