Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[naphar] 28/11/2014 21:25

Bobby



There's no objection valid box.

[ansana] 28/11/2014 21:02

We don't mention Tom,Bill,Sam,Scott or Fred either. IMO they are all working extremely hard to turn the company around. They get my vote.

[monkeymagic3] 28/11/2014 19:11

Anybody notice how we don't talk about Lance anymore?

[bobbyshilling] 28/11/2014 18:56

SG, thank you for clarifying procedures re: the water permit; I take it the 'objection valid' box is still empty from what you say.

My computer went on the blink a little while ago, so have lost the link showing the permit progress. I have tried a search using the permit number as per the IOF rns, but can't get anything to show.

[jasisdad] 28/11/2014 18:40

Thanks Superg. Was hoping we had some late in the day news and someone was trying to buy lots!!!

[superg1] 28/11/2014 18:23

A time extension to the auction call period. It occurs if the auction match price breaches price tolerance limits. The extension allows further entry and deletion of orders.

They also get called fat finger trades.

It covers for mistakes.

You wouldn't want to find you have committed to a sale of 1p on a typo when the shares are 10p. I believe that's why they were introduced,

[jasisdad] 28/11/2014 18:05

Guys. Anyone knows what the recent RNS means as below Iofina PLC Price Monitoring ExtensionTIDMIOFRNS Number : 3783YIofina PLC28 November 2014Price Monitoring ExtensionToday's closing auction call period has been extended in this security by 5 minutes.Auction call extensions give London Stock Exchange electronic order book users a further opportunity to review the prices and sizes of orders entered in an individual security's closing auction call before the execution occurs. A price monitoring extension is activated when the matching process would have otherwise resulted in an execution price that is a pre-determined percentage above or below the price of the most recent automated execution today.The applicable percentage is set by reference to a security's Millennium Exchange sector. This is set out in the Sector Breakdown tab of the Parameters document at www.londonstockexchange.com/tradingservicesThis information is provided by RNSThe company news service from the London Stock ExchangeENDPMEBLBDBUXDBGSI

[superg1] 28/11/2014 17:40

No, the system seems to lack complexities to deal with more objections. I forgot about thanksgiving, so I would imagine anyone objecting would have got that done pre this long weekend off for them.

As in the last post, if the objection is valid then they will put a date in the hearing box which is a way of saying it's valid. It doesn't mean there will be a hearing.

They just tick boxes to see if is valid or not, then send it off the the e
hearing examiner and record a date. The objector and applicant have the opportunity to discuss any concerns with each other.

The two options to avoid a hearing is objection withdrawn, or conditions agreed, then it gets sorted quickly once either is agreed.

If it's not resolved then off to a hearing. The records say 90% don't go to a hearing.

For those that go to a hearing it states they must be within 90 days of the objection deadline.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 28/11/2014 17:05

Yes, it's an economic war on Putin. Remember some of OPEC's producers have a real b/e of just $2... yes $2. So the scope for further drops is frightening.

Of course it's actually good news as it benefits huge swathes of the global economy.

[naphar] 28/11/2014 16:54

Sg
do you think the objection box date will be updated if another objection is received? Of not I guess we will be in the dark.

[superg1] 28/11/2014 14:21

My assumption was right re the objection process.

If an objection is deemed valid then a hearing date is out in the box. Valid just means it hits one of the criteria. Just because a date is out in doesn't mean it's going to a hearing it's just a way of showing a valid objection. It's a default setting, they book it, then wait for a cancellation via objection withdrawn or conditions agreed.

As said before most objections never go to a hearing. The objector has comms with the applicant and they can discuss and settle it, either objection withdrawn or potential conditions added. Once that is done the award is in quick time just the same as no objections.

So right now there is no obvious material change to the timeline even if the objection is deemed valid.

Once we go beyond 8th December IOF may well tell us what it is all about via news. There is no point releasing any news prior as they would need to wait to see if it is the only objection.

I say the 8th as the 7 day postmark guesstimate was right too.

They don't grant permits until at least 7 days after the objection period ends. That explains why most are done between 1 to 2 weeks.

What I don't know is if IOF can engage with the objector pre deadline. Logic suggests yes, as the objector sends them a copy.

[neddo] 28/11/2014 13:02

I would say the low oil price is due to less reliance on it by the us

[1madmarky] 28/11/2014 12:53

The low oil price is all about Putin. The timing is too perfect to be anything else IMHO. And as pointed out a little extra growth at the moment would not go amiss.
GLA

[che7win] 28/11/2014 12:42

superg,
my view is that there isn't a conspiracy theory, but market dynamics are unstoppable, the fair price of oil these past few years should have been lower than $115, but they were kept artificially high by Arab Spring etc.

Of course, there are a lot of tinpot regime's part of the OPEC cartel, then we have ISIS reputedly selling oil for $25 pb from their stolen assets.

It also serves Saudi and US interests to curtail Russia - seems the only way to destroy Putin is with cheap oil and they are hurting big time. Inflation is raging, their economy will fall into recession next year and they have stopped supporting the Ruble which is collapsing further today.

Also, Iran, ISIS etc will be hurt by oil, so it does serve a political purpose.

Against that, you wonder with all the easy oil extracted how low the price will go, a lot of shorters have had a one way ticket, the price of oil has fallen too far IMHO short term.

Canadian tar sands / Deep sea drills all come under pressure.

It's not just about oil, the US dollar is strengthening which surpresses oil demand in other countries and countries like India are pulling subsidies for diesel etc.

For us, for a well drilled, although they do drop off quick in oil production, they have a long tail which runs into years of pumping small amounts so it's the future drills that it affects.
That to me means it won't affect IOF or the six plants we have, except to minimise fracking disruption.

DYOR

[ansana] 28/11/2014 12:29

Lower fuel prices, more disposable income, more demand for other consumer products, demand created for energy, oil price recovers. Simples.

[superg1] 28/11/2014 12:03

Interesting comments which rather scuppers the thoughts on how the price affects the oil shale boom in the US.

'The U.S. shale boom does not appear to be slowing in response to the oil-price slump, with the country’s output of petroleum liquids rising above 12 million barrels a day for the first time, according to the International Energy Agency.'

'Most oil production in the Bakken shale formation remains profitable at or below $42 a barrel, the IEA said, citing a report from the State of North Dakota.'

“While some companies are rethinking big-ticket projects from Canada to Angola, delays or spending cuts would affect the longer-term supply outlook rather than short-term,” the IEA said. U.S. light, tight oil output advanced by 100,000 barrels a day to 3.9 million last month, it said.


'IEA suggested that only 4% of US shale needs US$80/bbl'


Fear and rumour are always far more damaging than facts. I look for facts not perceptions, rumour, or general panic.

Those FACTS are from the International Energy agency who represent 29 countries.

'The IEA is an autonomous organisation which works to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 29 member countries and beyond. The IEA's four main areas of focus are: energy security, economic development, environmental awareness, and engagement worldwide.'


'U.S. crude oil production climbed 1 percent to 9.06 million barrels a day last week, exceeding 9 million for the first time in more than 30 years, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.'

[superg1] 28/11/2014 11:54

What about it Neddo. Completely dismissed by me that one, I'm just waiting to see if any others appear, if they don't then happy days.

Either way the permit is coming based on the law. My only personal query is will it be mid December or a few weeks later.

[rhwillcoll] 28/11/2014 11:47

neddo: I don't think we can blame OPEC for everything :)

[neddo] 28/11/2014 11:38

what about the water objection, ?

[superg1] 28/11/2014 11:13

Also a bit stupid to bite the hand that feeds you (military assistance) if it is a case of trying to undermine US shale production.

I seem to recall Saudi and Kuwait having a bit of an issue with Iraq a while back.

The fact is some of the OPEC members are suffering badly due to their own
members group decision. Some will be defecting to UKIP at this rate.

[superg1] 28/11/2014 11:07

Che

With my limited knowledge on the subject, and knowing the age old coalitions I was wondering whether there was a bit of a conspiracy theory going to undermine Russia, and to turn the thumbscrews on them re the Ukraine and any other similar thoughts Russia have about other old territories.

This makes short but interesting read on the oil price topic.




The whole desire of the shale boom was for the US to break free of the dependence on the middle east.

The US isn't going to roll over, and as we have seen the Opec members are falling out over the recent decision.

Supply demand is linked to cost, as the price drops the demand due to affordability goes up.

As they point out the high oil prices contribute to recessions, lower prices create growth.

[che7win] 28/11/2014 10:48

ACT,
yes, I know your game, it was fun for you when the downside potential was there (like the other stock).

I am not convinced this is an attack on Putin, he is just a pawn in the bigger scheme of things and Russia does supply 11% of the world oil.

You have to look at it from Saudi's point of view:

1. If they cut supply, they are allowing US fracking, Canadian tar sands, Russian artic exploration, alternative energy to progress unabated.
They also would be giving up their customers for new entrants like Iraq, Iran and the US.

The US shipped oil to Japan recently for the first time in decades.
Nigeria is losing a supply agreement to the US and is having to look at the far east for business etc.

So Saudi has decided they will keep pumping because they want to keep customers.
Had they cut production, US fracking would grow unabated, the market is oversupplied by 1.5 - 1.8 m barrels currently, Europe economy isn't helping demand either.

They will let the market find a level, US fracking has changed the landscape for good and OPEC is losing the stranglehold they used to have on oil.

They can't cut as non-OPEC oil would keep killing them so prices have fallen. Saudi has vast cash balances to fund the deficit so not a problem for them.

It is a problem for other OPEC countries, but US fracking will continue.
Remember the gas wells fracked - the production just didn't tail off with record low prices, technology advanced too, oil will continue but growth will be curtailed - market forces.

Take US fracking out, and oil would be closer to $150 I've read.

[awolagain] 28/11/2014 10:37

Jasisdad

I would guess they are late trades from yesterday...so no price movement as it happened yesterday.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 28/11/2014 10:27

The day I watch trades is the day it doesn't become fun.

Hey Che!

You're right, this no longer gives me that buzz, @£50m it becomes a bit mean to bash.