Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[cyberbub] 03/12/2014 08:29

I reiterate my opinion that our iodine IP must be worth far more than the current market cap to a Japanese competitor...

[ridicule] 03/12/2014 00:23

ATCOZERO Thank you for pointing out that my 15 July hearing date was for this year and NOT 2015. I have awarded myself the Numpty medal with bar. My mind was on the future and I guess my eyes followed it and mistook the date. Sorry to all for the error.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 03/12/2014 00:10

Interesting, isn't it Graham... and Banksy.

[superg1] 02/12/2014 22:54

Che
The sqm 30 percent market share intent was reiterated in a recent media comment. To see them saying they are driving the price down to achieve that aim explained their strategy.

They need 2000 to 3000 Mt more yo go beyond 30 percent. In the same report they suggest cost reductions of 50 mill next year. They are clearly not considering the high cost closed mine. They took a 250 mill loan note which has me wondering what they have planned. With Cosayach apparently in trouble, I think SQM have them in their sights.

[che7win] 02/12/2014 21:32

Travis,
Yes, I would agree.

The annual rate should be around 700 (finally). We can grow production by less fracking disruption, better efficiencies but ultimately I want to see growth of plants.

I agree, iodine price needs to bottom, all the experts have been totally off on the price and predictions for it, but market dynamics are going to make a difference next year.

Take a look at TUNG, AIM market is tough right now.

In TUNG, we can see why it should fall heavily, IOF is looking much, much better in fundamentals.

[superg1] 02/12/2014 21:14

There are a few 'chaps' about that sell water but obviously some are closer than others.

I imagine I they won't be too pleased to see competition so always a chance they may try to slow things up.

I did think of that one but then thought the points they may have to raise could potentially put their own permits at risk.

The bureau may say 'great point', we'll consider that when you try to extend your permit period.

[henry9th1] 02/12/2014 20:42

One would suspect that the valid objections possible would be wildlife and fisheries or whatever the alternative to that is over there and the chap down the road who already sells water? Other than that the locals could possibly raise concerns but who listens to them!

Much ado about something that will happen whatever the objections are because apparently all of the boxes have been ticked, they will get the permit. It's the same the whole world over! Kind regards William.

[roger melly] 02/12/2014 19:20

SuperG
Thanks for your reply

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 02/12/2014 19:08

You can watch the trades all day and be none the wiser. You won't see it all, much is hidden so lends to speculation. The main thing to watch is volume, maybe you could add a volume chart in the header Graham?

[superg1] 02/12/2014 18:41

Cyber
re

cyberbub 2 Dec'14 - 16:46 - 27414 of 27417 2 1

What on earth happened in the last half an hour there?

I wasn't about but just had a look at trades. It was very quiet in the afternoon then all that action in the last half hour.

The basics on trades on this site show about 40k bought and 40k sold.

If there is no action on a price MM's will move the price to where there may be action.

So with the roughly equal trades, I suspect there was a buy order at the lower price so the MM's took it down to see if they could trigger stop losses to fill the order. That is a tactic they use and trades are often broken up into smaller bites. Looks like it worked.

[superg1] 02/12/2014 18:35

Trav more sellers than buyers. If there had been no objection box completed it would probably be the other way around.

To hit guidance as in the last rns they would need to hit over 36mt per monthfor the last 3 months

[trav5] 02/12/2014 18:25

The interim statement dated 25/09/13 which stated with 6 plants operational "the estimated annualised production will be between 700-1000 metric tons". Due to significant delays in bringing plants on line in 2014 production was then downgraded to 400m/t and was downgraded again to 325- 350m/t. Finally 6 plants became operational in 9/2014. Taking a mid point of 850mt from the 2013 interim statemement it would indicate the 6 plants should be producing approx 71m/t. However the Sept production statement was 28m/t which is 60% lower than the forward looking estimate from 2013. Which raises two questions are the plants operating as efficiently as envisaged? With these much reduced production figures what are the operating costs? This is being exacerbated by the fall iodine prices and IMO ignoring water this is why we are seeing the ongoing fall in the share price

[superg1] 02/12/2014 17:54

Just noticed this which is one of the iodine producers we rarely mention. They do about 2000 to 3000mt I believe.

Union ACF Minera SA

Iquique, 264 workers ACF Minera SA begin indefinite strike on 21.11.2014.

I've no idea what it was about or if it's still on going, I will see what I can find.

Edit

Looks like it was still going on the 27th

Doh

27/11/14

"Miguel Gutierrez Logistics supervisor mining ACF runs over worker on strike"

[cyberbub] 02/12/2014 16:46

What on earth happened in the last half an hour there??

[superg1] 02/12/2014 13:27

Re the flow chart

If an objection point is deemed valid

CO will send objection letters with HE assigned &
Notice of Hearing date
• Hearing must be within 90 days of objection deadline.

CO means central office, HE means hearing examiner.

NB



'even though we set a schedule to proceed towards a hearing, we do allow the parties time to communicate and settle.'

So back to the original point a hearing date shown means there is a valid objection not that there WILL be a hearing.

A valid objection doesn't necessarily mean it's going to change anything. I could not see how the bureau could deny Iof's application as they met all the criteria.
As it turned out the hearing examiner agreed.

[superg1] 02/12/2014 13:15

Patrick

The July 15 date is 15th July 2014 which is when the original hearing took place.

[superg1] 02/12/2014 13:05

Roger

Re the below.

No matter what is happening IF the bureau deem an objection to be valid (fits one of the criteria) then they will automatically put an advanced date in the hearing box. It's just the administration protocol and can be found in the objections flow chart.

If a date appears then it simply means a point is deemed valid not that a hearing will take place. They have to put a date within the 90 day limit. Looking at another permit they put that date just inside 90 days on the Thursday. So If deemed a valid objection my guess is a date of on or about 27th February will show. That doesn't mean there will be a hearing, I'm just explaining the bureau internal admin process.

Without those facts and probably even with them heads falling off and feathers flying will no doubt feature from the clueless.

I've worked that out from reading their processes. I post here to share what I find with folk that know me.

When I say IOF have all their evidence I simply mean they are probably ready to go as they amassed and presented evidence on the points in the last hearing.

As Sancler states some criteria based on the facts available look impossible to contest so we are probably left with diversion and beneficial use, which is the same points as the last hearing.



ROGER MELLY   2 Dec'14 - 10:35 - 27403 of 27410 1 0

SuperG2
"So that date if my assumptions are right should be around 27th February. IOF have all of their evidence."
Are you saying you now expect it to go to a hearing? I thought you said previously that there were no valid grounds for objection?

[che7win] 02/12/2014 12:34

Market cap is low - no growth expected in our iodine production at this price or a rise in the iodine price.

Then again, with a low market cap, we haven't far too fall from here.

Unlike other stocks at multimillion dollar market caps e.g. TUNG which can't afford any slips in expectations. Revenue £10m there, worth 40p on any slips, right ACT?

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 02/12/2014 12:29

MELLY,

Haven't you been following the boring debate?

It boils down to the fact that we don't know what the objection is, ergo we can't say it's invalid.

Simple eh?

[festario] 02/12/2014 12:28

RoundUp, and others... the share price is not really sliding as such, it's doing exactly what Mr Big said it would, way back in May. It's flatlining.

It's been either side of the 40p level for months, give or take a small percentage.

[che7win] 02/12/2014 12:19

It is an iodine company, a soon to be water company, a potential oil company, a potential gas company and a potential helium play.

That's what makes it interesting.

Ironically, a falling oil price might just take us to the very destination we have wanted to travel to this past 1.5 years:

Less fracking, less disruption and partners prioritizing supplying us as much brine as possible to lower their costs.

[bobbyshilling] 02/12/2014 12:03

As long as they don't think it is an oil company :)

[neddo] 02/12/2014 11:09

pete
you are right anybody reading this board would think iof is a water company rather than an iodine company.

[petejay] 02/12/2014 10:56

I'm a holder here and I'm sure the low share price is caused by the ' experts on here continually worrying about dates, decisions, letter date stamps,points of law etcYour doing the derampers job for themLet the company give us the news and the share price will act accordingly. They know what's going on far more than any of usIn the meantime relax