Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 12/11/2014 15:12

Heart

Is lying the limit of your contribution. It generally works on PIs so that's why scum like you use it.

[heartwell] 12/11/2014 15:07

Cyberbub news has leaked. There are more sells than buys idiot that's why the price is down.
This is a buy at 18p, once the third warning on Iodine production is out.
They always come in 3s
Water is the future

[cyberbub] 12/11/2014 14:58

Fest, less than half a mill traded, and a fair proportion clearly buys, it's hardly a stampede for the exit is it?

[heartwell] 12/11/2014 14:48

Arron Banks has a history of losses on the stock market. Just ask Chris lol

[che7win] 12/11/2014 14:47

Agreed hew.

If management don't mind this going lower, then they mustn't need a strong share price in the short term.

Maybe they would like an unsolicited takeover approach, certainly they aren't trying to inform shareholders on anything about water prospects or iodine for that matter.

[festario] 12/11/2014 14:46

Not happy about the higher volumes taking this down.
The last 2 top ups of mine now looking a bit sick. (55p on Water news day and 41p the other day)
At least Arron Banks is losing MORE than me for a change, in absolute terms at least, but maybe not percentages.

[heartwell] 12/11/2014 14:46

Well done Hew, atleast one of you Lance ball suckers have seen the light
Now long now for the big spike downwards, Stena want to get out asap before the next news

[hew] 12/11/2014 14:42

Che (and others), I agree that the premature ceasing of monthly updates is likely to be a major factor in the share price slump. The deeper issue is why IOF should have done so. I do not believe that they (and their nomad) are so decoupled from the market as to believe it would not be a substantial negative factor and hold down the SP, if not actually depress it.

Some possible reasons are:
- to shake out PIs; too many of the pesky nuisances and the nomad dislikes them
- to offer a cheap entry point to the funds they seek as investors
- to offer a cheap price as a component of some iodine trading deal
- potentially to give a low basis for options to be granted
- to reduce short term margin trading on the basis of monthly reports
- to reduce the focus on iodine as the central operation - water to feature more
- to hide good news
- to hide bad news
- other...........

In short, I have no idea. But my conclusion is that I cannot risk further investment in these circumstances. They did not establish confidence before retreating behind the screen and without news I see no reason the price should not fall further. I want to be an investor not a punter.

[heartwell] 12/11/2014 14:37

Could be sub 20p in minutes on a third warning.
Buy order in at 18p for water as the core business before the 1st.

[heartwell] 12/11/2014 14:31

Stena will be the first to know about another production warning. No guesses who is selling then

[heartwell] 12/11/2014 14:28

Prepare for the excuses to come. Bad weather, past management, water pumps, operators. Choose your pick, while Lance has sold 4.5m shares last year. Mugs

Is this Banks third failed investment lol

[tackems] 12/11/2014 13:54

Yet another one filtered!!

[roger melly] 12/11/2014 13:50

I thought it was what you were expecting Che7 ?

[che7win] 12/11/2014 13:38

Well under mr bigs loan, interesting!

[heartwell] 12/11/2014 13:28

Lance has told his buddies first. Get out while you can. The plants are wearing the emperor's clothes. Big spike downwards coming

[stevo2011] 12/11/2014 13:26

Ok nettley you know best

[heartwell] 12/11/2014 13:21

Wouldn't surprise me if the iodine becomes non-core on the third warning.
It's all about the water business now

[heartwell] 12/11/2014 13:17

They should repackage this to a water company. I reckon they did another iodine 25MT in October. A third warning on production coming very soon

[ridicule] 12/11/2014 13:13

The share price is now turning into a worry. They indeed have made a mistake in dropping monthly reports and if the news is good for October, they should reverse the decision and reassure the market.

[heartwell] 12/11/2014 13:10

Lance and the team showing contempt to PIs. No news is bad news.
The iodine plants have been shown to produce very little after the capital spend
Easy short to 30p before 1st Dec

[rhwillcoll] 12/11/2014 10:55

superg1: many thanks for your superb posts, and in particular concerning the
iodine situation in Chile. It is really fascinating. Also, from our end the unfolding of a unique, low cost, disruptive iodine technology which will potentially put other iodine producers out of business, or into a serious economic "situation" - even worse than they are in now.

[superg1] 12/11/2014 10:40

Round

Yes a definite shame if October was a good month and it sounds like it was. I appreciate many would prefer regular updates and the volume has clearly dropped off due to a lack of them.

While the water news is good it has created an air of tension waiting for the objection period, so a report on other parts of the business would be very welcome.

What were were last left with however was $7.5 mill in the bank with receivables due. Record revenue with Q4 to go even with lower iodine prices. Then a water rns with the potential of a cash lump sum. Review due on potential expansion on higher margin sites bringing down overall opex.

So very happy with the business but not with the SP, but the one will track the other in the fullness of time.

[superg1] 12/11/2014 10:24

Just to explain how the over-supply SQM go on about happened affecting the price this year.

In 2013 RB/Sirocco sold a total of 475mt, then allowed an inventory build up to 800mt.

They produced 525mt in Feb to June to add to that and sold more in Q2 this year (518mt) than they did for the whole of 2013.

By the start of Q3 they had about 630mt in the inventory and will produce about 250 to 300mt in Q3. Going by their accounts we know they have been selling cut price iodine. They hit huge debt issues with no cash and announced they would use iodine sales iodine to keep the lithium side going.

We know at the same time India imports took off for apparently cheap iodine. RB will have been selling for whatever price they could get and the inventory will be going down.

Cosayach

In April 2013 they started stealing water at a very high rate increasing production by around 1500mt. Come May 2014 the legal system caught up with them and forced the closure of 38 wells. So Cosayach were also sitting on a lump of inventory. Cosayach were not paying their debts, not paying for water, and avoiding tax false accounting and getting rebates. So no surprise there that they could sell iodine cheaply.

It has caused a bulge in supply through this year on cheap iodine from one desperate, and one highly corrupt company.

The dust will eventually settle as the false supply surge from those sources evaporates.

SQM were clearly aware of how Cosayach were producing cheap iodine as court proceedings were already in play. Some SQM customers tried to force SQM to supply at lower prices as they could get it elsewhere. SQM let those customers go as costs at certain mines were too high, but they also know the situation would be temporary.

All credibility has been lost by RB and Cosayach, so they are unlikely to see any long term supply agreement interest. In theory those previous SQM customers will be back when the inventory game is over and the true production situation surfaces.

Potentially RB could disappear altogether which would have been a which would wipe out this false year of perhaps 1800mt of iodine that they had to sell.

Cosayach have had their wells closed. They may well be using other illegal means since.

The fact is it's a false market and come next year the tide is out.

Regardless of the false situation IOF have a business where their costs may well end up as the lowest in the sector.

If they announce expansion all well and good as profits go up. That ignores all other aspects

[roundup] 12/11/2014 10:07

"Every cloud has a silver lining". In this case I hope it has a gold lining. I was able to get another bargain this morning.