Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[cyberbub] 03/11/2014 23:41

GWMO - ouch! Luckily I got out still in profit... Clearly IOF is a lot less speculative... we just need a couple of bits of good news for a change for sentiment to start to turn, IMO...

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 03/11/2014 20:20

'I wonder whether we might just start to see little tickle northwards'

No, looks like we'll move south.

[cyberbub] 03/11/2014 18:01

I wonder whether we might just start to see a little tickle northwards in the next week or two as investors start to anticipate the strategic review, the (hopefully) water permit approval, and the early January iodine production update??

The chart is looking reasonable for a short-term bounce towards 50p anyway, IMO... while we are somewhat below all the main SMAs, the RSI seems to have turned upwards from oversold, and the MACD looks like it could turn over the next week... I hasten to add that I am no expert chartist though!

GLA NAI touch wood etc etc

[superg1] 03/11/2014 12:11

They can only drill so many wells in any particular area, so any disruption is temporary. The more wells that go in, the more brine there is.

[ridicule] 03/11/2014 11:58

Thanks very much SuperG. Lets all hope slick water does not become widespread!

[superg1] 03/11/2014 10:54

Oklahoma in commercial terms ranges from 100 to over 5000pm. Typically the higher the ppm the lower the bpd from a well.

In a selective process rather than the 'expansion at any cost', I'd be surprised to see any future plants on sites under 200ppm.

I asked the ppm rate at the AGM for pod sites, the answer given was a range of 200 to 1000ppm.

Io2 I have as 250ppm plus, and they have sites of high bpd at higher ppm rates than that, it was mentioned at the recent presentations.

I anticipate the strategic review may come this month on the iodine plan. They may include comments on water as by then they will have a good idea re the level of partner interest.

With careful selection typical sites should be between 300 to 400ppm, However from comments there are some wells clearly well over those levels.

[ridicule] 03/11/2014 10:37

SuperG how does 60ppm in Bakken compare with the current average ppm for iodine in Oklahoma?

[superg1] 03/11/2014 10:06

Yes it is possible they could use the slick water method in Oklahoma. However due to them using produced water I don't know if it helps on the reduction of chemical use.

The big difference is the amount of water that comes up in OK, which can be as high as 10 times other shales.

I was told iodine ppm in the Bakken is around 60 at best.

[1madmarky] 03/11/2014 09:46

There is so much produced water in oklahoma, that they could go down the slickwater route. It would have a minimal impact on iodine production. AIMHO

[ridicule] 03/11/2014 09:09

Sorry to be so ill informed SuperG, but my thinking was that the Slickwater techniques could become much more widespread and could be adopted in the Oklahoma area. Equally, while Montana is currently a water play for IOF, with the development of mobiles, could they not start Iodine extraction in the Bakken?

Thank you for your very informative contribution to this thread.

[superg1] 03/11/2014 08:41

ridicule

The slickwater chat is about the Bakken and water potential. The iodine business is in Oklahoma.

[ridicule] 03/11/2014 08:38

While the Slickwater technique uses much more water, can anyone confirm that the iodine content within the water is as much as the normal fracking processes?

[ammons] 03/11/2014 07:44

That seems somewhat far fetched to me, monkeymagic.

[monkeymagic3] 03/11/2014 06:57

I think the share price tells you what the market thinks will be the most likely outcome of the two.

[bobsworth] 03/11/2014 00:08

Cyberbub good post!

One of the best scenarios for Iofina would have been if those long term Japanese supply interests had come in with some serious upfront cash to allow Iofina to rapidly expand its iodine business, protected by hedged pricing.

Note: offtake supply agreements often involve an upfront cash investment!

If that happened, then knowing they can expand their iodine business in the short term, it would allowed Iofina to make that most lucrative decision to retain 100% of its water business via a fund raising low interest loan. The recurring barrels of cash generated would quickly pay off the loan and allow further year on year expansion of its iodine and water business.

A win win scenario!

I know the chances of this happening in time are very slim but fingers crossed!

[cyberbub] 02/11/2014 22:08

Bobsworth I tend to think that the JV route is by far the most likely, but who knows.

Would it really be a disaster if our management decided to go it alone, and raised say £15M+ at 35p? 40-50 million extra shares yes, but if we ended up with 100% of the water business it would be a superb deal for us long-term IMO.

On reflection I would certainly prefer the JV route personally, as it is much less risk and would help to quickly move the iodine core business forward.

But if our management were able to present a credible case/plan for being able to carry out the water development directly, then it would be worth considering.

I think the likelihood of a JV is about 70%, after all our management have explicitly stated this intention on 6th October. The chance of 'project financing' is maybe 20%. And the chance of an IOF-level fundraising less than 10% - it would be a change of strategy.

We should find out soon in the strategic review!?

[bogg1e] 02/11/2014 19:56

RSI low 20's. Momentum moving back up. Good top up time, from a traders point of view. Although not without a sensible stop in place should the market prove fickle.

[mister big] 02/11/2014 17:44

ACT makes me laugh :) .
The stick market can seriously underestimate or over estimate a shares price for months and years . The old saying the market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent is very true .
I see solid progress and the move to quarterly report is very sensible - the stock is 80% PI held and therefore volatile .

[superg1] 02/11/2014 10:18

On the technology front, I see someone has come up with a solar panel with near 100% recovery rates v 80% currently.

The percentage loss was down to transfer to a remote battery. They have managed to incorporate batteries within the solar panel and use an iodide as the power transfer method.

So another probable future use to add to the growing list.

[superg1] 02/11/2014 09:42

I've been having a read about lithium after finding that Enirgi news release.

I think that news is a potential big warning to anyone thinking of investing in Lithium producers.

Brine extraction is the lower cost method, but high concentration hard rock mining can compete. However I don't think they have the slightest chance of survival against the tech advance by Enirgi.

Simbol and Posco have seen some great advances in similar tech but the Posco tests cover 20 mt.

Industrial minerals have caught onto the news.

Energi Group aiming to be global leader in lithium with 50,000 tpa LCE plant


"The new technology Enirgi has developed is a gamechanger for the industry. If the company can produce 50,000 tpa, and as it hints, can undercut others on cost, then it means the lithium space may look very different in 2017.

Energi Group told IM told that it was looking to become a leading producer of lithium carbonate, with a 50,000 tpa plant scheduled to come online in 2017.

The company has silently but diligently worked on proving its “gamechanger” lithium extraction technology, which it claims reduces processing time from 500 days to 24 hours.

I'm sure investors in lithium may be currently oblivious to the news but it will start to filter through and is going to leave many at the wrong end on production costs.

The Enirgi group is owned by Sentient. They have the financial muscle to exploit the technology.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 02/11/2014 01:42

Both wrong.

To the chagrin of MELLY, Banky's brokers are bidding 40.

Next 35.



Got UKIP te fund, save a bit here ;)

Million hours of research eh Graham? hic!

[old giggleswickian] 02/11/2014 01:25

Bobsworth,
Your hypothesis is interesting but does not conform to Occam's Razor. More often than not people give the "market" too much credit for analysis and I think we were aware that Lance wanted to stop doing monthly reporting as soon as he could. I suspect the timing had little to do with funding options. I could also be wrong and empirical evidence suggests that the chances are greater than 50%!

Ian.