Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 17/10/2014 09:23

For anyone that has an interest in the oil price topic someone sent me this article yesterday.

It's an interesting and read a bit of an eye-opener, especially on costs to produce for various countries. I'm sure it will surprise most, if not all of you.

EG Iran's break even cost is $140 per barrel, Iraq $109.50. Russia $105 and
Yemen $200 !!!

Even Saudi has costs above the current price.

[angel of the north] 17/10/2014 09:09

It's Drivel - for your benefit - you understand it!

[rhwillcoll] 17/10/2014 08:23

monkeymagic: it's only a bit of monkeying around. It's enough to drive you
nuts (monkey nuts) :)
Edit: I think that's what might have happened to Nutters!

[angel of the north] 17/10/2014 08:21

"Goal" now in the lead I see?

[monkeymagic3] 17/10/2014 08:19

I didn't mean that all Nutley.

I was referring to the Annual Prize for Oustanding Endeavours in Post Technology which has this year been open to online voting.

"Lamp" has got twice as many votes as "Fence".

"First Class" has only got three votes!!!

Something's up.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 17/10/2014 08:12

You mean 'why is Banksy getting so many up-ticks?'

Hmmm, my guess is there are some who see his investment here as a good sign? In other words he's getting ticked-up because he's put millions in here.

Of course his shorting activities have been forgotten and forgiven, conveniently. Fickle.

[monkeymagic3] 17/10/2014 08:07

Has anybody else noticed some very strange "voting" of posts recently?

[mister big] 16/10/2014 22:08

STM has a great business model and reported interims better than expected , and the results will just get better. I don't care what the price is today !
Anyway - good luck with your other stocks

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 16/10/2014 22:05

Look che, I did my valuation justification on TUNG shortly after floatation, when no brokers had issued any notes.

If you want to go read it it's near the start. Bear in mind the share price was a lot lower then.

I stand by what I posted and it's probably a bit high atm.

[superg1] 16/10/2014 21:59

Che

I just did my quick check which I use for unknown shares. No research involved just some basics on a site.

Now as I recall certain folk like to look backwards on yearly reports.

Starting from 4 years back Tung in revenue goes £15m £16m £0 then £10.7 now, so less than it was in 2012.

Losses climb -£3m -£3m -£10m and now -£11m for April 14.

It's going the wrong way in revenues and losses, so it's a jog on for me with no interest to look further. If that basic view were the other way around it would be of interest.

[festario] 16/10/2014 21:51

Mr Big, I think patience is a virtue, but it can be overdone, and lead to stagnated assets and missed opportunities.
I have had 2 years worth of patience with IOF, but my holding is worth 75% less than it was a year ago. Had I known what you knew, I would have sold and deployed my funds elsewhere.
I have had 6 years worth of patience with GVC, and that has risen 400% in that time, and given me back every penny of my investment (and more) in dividends alone.
Now THAT is a company that delivers on it's promises!

IOF may come good, but I need more than any 125p to make it profitable for me. That is apparently your target price, so it's not that exciting a proposition for me anymore. Until then I will look in here from time to time. But I do note that you like to crow about your successes.... yet never mention those tips that have failed to impress. Let me refresh your memory. STM is 40% down since you urged us on here to buy it.

[che7win] 16/10/2014 21:02

Cyber,
Exactly.

[cyberbub] 16/10/2014 20:44

Che, IOF will throw off £10m profit from iodine *only* and with the current 6 plants *only*, in due course when the iodine price rises modestly......add in probably £5m from a 50-50 JV on the pending water licence......plus ramping up profits from rolling out more iodine plants in the next 12-24 months...I can easily see us at 200p in 2016 if all goes to plan... which of course is by no means guaranteed!..GLA NAI

[che7win] 16/10/2014 20:29

ACT,
it's like a game of chess with you, clever move on TUNG, it has no assets, all intangibles and you know it.

So clearly, you value it two years out on 21.9p EPS forecast. Barriers to entry? Not high I would guess, it does have a decent business prospect and management, but you are taking a lot on faith.


IOF will throw off £10m profits when iodine price goes up, I'm not interested in short term, that profit will come, fixed cost base, geared increase in profits, soon to be lowest producer in world.

[mister big] 16/10/2014 19:19

Festario - I don't even look at the daily price of STM / IOF on a daily basis - I own a part of the business which is doing very well .
This current market will throw up great opportunities - Eurozone is tanking and markets becoming volatile . I've been short of french bonds which have been in the red for some time - now they are blue and it's pay back time .
Greek bonds blowing , Italy and then french !
Anyway - patience clearly isn't your strong suit .

[superg1] 16/10/2014 18:10

Montana permits objections.

I thought I'd look up those currently PDTG or awarded but still on the system.

50 available to view, and about 80% awarded with a few still in their public notice period.

3 have the objection box filled in.

One relates to a granted permit change request so not relevant.

Another relates to a well/groundwater so aquifer based, talk of taking water from 3 public wells and the records show in detail there is very little left to appropriate from that aquifer.

The only one that seems relevant (but isn't) is an application for 2 acre feet on Flat creek in Chouteau county. It's for a farmer to give water to his livestock.

The Bureau has no record of flows but historically from "local knowledge" they know it is a creek that often runs dry, whether it is a wet or dry season.

They use flow rates from the creek it runs into (Arrow creek) and it got a PDTG.

Someone has objected, details unknown. I assume they have rights lower down Flat creek and knowing it runs dry regularly, are not happy that someone has had rights granted further upstream as they will be affected.


The Missouri at Culbertson flows at over 7000 cubic feet per second, Arrow creek averages 50 cfs.

The IOF permit full daily amount equates to about 60 seconds of the flow rate.

That's about it, and explains the rns entry about unlikely objections.

[festario] 16/10/2014 17:49

How's STM doing since you urged us all to buy it Mr Big, more doubloons into your treasure chest? ..... oh wait!!

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 16/10/2014 17:40

If anyone's interested in TUNG, read the 1st few posts, it's not an easy concept to grasp. You have to understand the amount it can borrow, and then the margins and costs. Fwiw it's pretty fully valued atm, but if it drifts to say 250/260 it starts to look okay, as an investment.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 16/10/2014 17:36

Look, you don't even rate the iodine, or the water... you want to drill for oil.
How much would this need for a drilling campaign?

[mister big] 16/10/2014 17:29

ACT you are interesting study in madness !
My cash box is filling up with doubloons from ftse puts - maybe I should buy a bit more IOF - on the basis you think it's expensive !

[superg1] 16/10/2014 17:28

Che

Snap. I follow some I never intend to invest in either and some of the prominent ones subject to high BB traffic and interest, as you say just for the experience. It's good experience to watch behaviours.

I mean to look at TUNG to see what it's all about, if I ever get time I will have a read up (not on the threads).

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 16/10/2014 17:20

So, although you all seem to think this is cheap - based on the fall from 250 no doubt. But when you actually do some number crunching it is quite clear that a lot of good news is already in the near £60m MV.
Sooner or later this has to be valued on the money it makes, not on how much the share price has fallen.
There is a difference.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 16/10/2014 17:13

Au contraire mon ami, I am struggling to find a bull case here. There is clearly a price war in the iodine market, so despite the seemingly clear cost advantages here, it is difficult to translate that advantage into good profits. By good profits I mean a clear £10m. You are light years away from that, at best you might make £5m in a couple of years. Hardly inspiring.

[che7win] 16/10/2014 17:04

superg,
I daily follow 50 stocks. Some I have no interest in investing, some are past investments and some are on my watchlist to invest.

I watch to learn, this is a lifetime of learning. You must adapt to the market constantly.

I follow some that others invest in here.

I don't buy tech stocks or mining stocks as a rule (when I do I lose). I also follow other stocks, e.g. QPP that I would never invest in, I like to watch how investors react.

I generally don't comment on other stocks some I have watched for years but never invested in.

Generally, I don't post about stocks I'm watching, my posts here are always in relation to IOF, ACT is just playing around.

I did invest in MSMN as ACT is probably aware of, he gets a kick out of the psychology of investors. Bought low 20's, out mid 30's I held about a week, it was never a long term stock.
On that one, ACT did me a big favour deramping, he said it would go from 22p to 14p at the time.

Important to note, he had zero interest in MSMN, but he likes to get under investors skin.
He is neither bull or bear here, he probably trades very rarely, to me is is harmless as he just posts for reaction and banter.

ACT knows this is cheap, hence he has struggled to come up with anything meaningful.

If IOF demonstrates good growth from here, the market will rerate it and Management hasn't made a wrong move since March.