Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[wester1] 11/10/2014 10:35

I agree that the water jv will prove to be the inflexion point for the market's perception of IOF. Combining that with a detailed strategic review will give the more cautious funds the transparency they crave to invest.

[superg1] 11/10/2014 09:57

I'm fully aware funds and the like and the big supporters like AB will know far more than PIs.

However after 27 years of using the same technique over and over again with success in various aspects of life, one can gain a lot of information when it's no longer relevant. It's then lodged in the grey matter, for future retrieval, should circumstances do a full circle.

So when IOF said no to IOF and it looked like they were going it alone on water, then to me that was the time to discuss those matters at meetings to see what was on offer by whom and where, as it's no longer sensitive info.

The names I has already suspected besides Hal were apparent.

Now some time on, IOF put in an rns post PDTG the permit that they may pursue a JV.

So saying I reckon they will definitely go for a JV with cash up front, isn't a random guess. They clearly state non core which tells you they want a JV. The original details of one intend JV at that time is spelt out publicly, re cash up front, and a share of the revenue with the partner taking on all costs.

It was early days for one of the list but they now turnover $800 mill per year in the industrial water industry. One name I note has since been taken over by another in the industry.

My point being if a fund is waiting to see if funding is needed for the water side, forget it you are wasting your time.

Hal and plenty of others have been trying to develop their own water divisions, so permits of that size and what IOF have in terms of an aquifer source, discharge permit, and US rights swap are on offer are an opportunity that comes around just once. No one else has that.

Absolutely nailed on imo that a partner will arrive, and all IOF will get is a big payment plus cash coming in while a partner controls the entire water side.

I don't think it will take long either.

Anyone thinking anything else imo is going up a dead end.

[bocker01] 11/10/2014 01:16

It's had its fall cos the share price got unrealistic ahead of actually achieving anything whatsoever. Was a prime AIM shorting target. It's survived. it's primary business stream, iodine, is now just started making money and cash. All is intact. Protected by IPR, lease rights etc. Other business streams will come into play. All headed in the right direction. its assets will appreciate. The share price will follow. the adjustment upwards may well be as swift as it was downwards when the assets start to be monetised and value confirmed. In a boom situation events, once started, accelerate super fast.

[freshvoicem] 11/10/2014 00:04

See Nutters on night shi[f]t again

[mister big] 10/10/2014 23:43

I agree - the mineral / water rights are valued at a big fat zero .
This has a long way to run and mister market remains volatile .
ACT really is an investment dolt - keep the faith and buy on the falls . Way too many pi in this stock who come in and out .

Ukip rule !

[rogerbridge] 10/10/2014 23:33

Times change and the world does not stay still. According to the Federal Reserve, North Dakota is now the wealthiest state in the USA!

It has a per capita GPD of $57,000 and has overtaken California and New York.
This is due to the fracking, North Dakota is now the hub and fracking has brought wealth.

All down to the Bakken oil and gas fields according to Money Week.

We have lots of valuable leases that are valued at zero.

IOF have assets that are not reflected in the share price and there is deep value here that will be recognised sooner rather than later.
Mr B has obviously understood the case for investing here.

[superg1] 10/10/2014 23:06

Fresh

60 if you left it to the last lot, considerably less now.

Water.... fully explained what will happen there, some look at Roy's burger van, while others in that business turn over $800 mill pa, yet there is nothing to be made in the frack water industry....apparently. lol You'll see.......

Mr B knows I'm right, and the lucky wotsit got a lot more.

[cyberbub] 10/10/2014 23:03

PS you will note that I have assigned a p/e of only 10-12 above. Growth companies can often be rated at 20 in the UK, or 25-30+ in the USA... yes, I would hope in 2 or 3 years if we have substantial regular income our management will get a Nasdaq dual listing...

While a $1B valuation is perhaps quite optimistic, a $500M valuation (= 200p per share, fully-diluted by the convertible bonds) seems eminently achievable in the next couple of years, IF our management make at least a half-decent fist of it.

NAI

[cyberbub] 10/10/2014 22:56

Freshvoice, yes we would need a substantial jump in iodine sale price, a drop to $20 or below in average opex, and to roll out a load of mobiles to high PPM sites. Plus JV all of our water allocation through the current permit, and possibly get more permits approved. I agree it's ambitious, but none of those conditions seem unrealistic by themselves. Whether they *all* happen depends on both our management and external market conditions. You pays your money you makes your choice!...

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 10/10/2014 22:07

Why shouldn't Iofina become a billion dollar company in time?

Well that's easy to answer cyberblubber;

1) Failed business model - cannot make any money

Now maybe once these stupid iodine & water scams go bust, and this is de-listed as worthless... then maybe someone can resurrect this as an oil company?

Of course all you mugs will have been deservedly wiped out by then.

[cyberbub] 10/10/2014 21:56

Why shouldn't Iofina become a billion dollar company in time? We would only need to be making $80-100M p.a. after tax on a quite modest p.e. of 10-12.... say $125M pre-tax profit? Granted it's a fair way from today's situation, and our management have not covered themselves in glory in 2013 and early 2014, but if they can get it right this time, why shouldn't we be able to get to say 2000+ tons in say 3 years' time, plus a nice steady income stream from water? Throw in a probable iodine price rise and we could be there...OK it's maybe being optimistic, but it is by no means fantasy IMO if the right combination of factors come into play...I will look forward to the strategic review shortly.NAI

[woolybanana] 10/10/2014 17:38

Needle me nodules?

[monkeymagic3] 10/10/2014 17:23

Bogg1e - What comes next in the hierarchy of Wow, gosh, gasp?

Gwapple me grape nuts?

[rogerbridge] 10/10/2014 17:12

After looking at the chaos on the markets, I am now thinking that IOF is fairly low risk.

The share price is bombed out where a lot of shares still have far to fall.
Cash generative.
Growing market for iodine.
Lowest cost producer.
Competitors under pressure and one probably gone.
Utility type water business when up and running - low risk.
Valuable leases.
Prospects for oil and helium j.v. or sale.

Looks a pretty safe place to be compared with many share out there.

[madchick] 10/10/2014 16:40

google chrome is going all weird on me _ duplicate post sorry

[festario] 10/10/2014 16:33

Very close to being able to demand a Directorship.

[madchick] 10/10/2014 16:27

I wondered whether the increase in revenue was due to the extraordinary contract for IOF Chem this year which varied over the five years of its term>

[orslega] 10/10/2014 16:25

what he's done is probably more tax efficient now – no CGT on the Isle of Man.....

[cyberbub] 10/10/2014 16:20

Yes Mr Big definitely buying again, this time via an investment vehicle, but I am not sure whether these are 5.1M new shares bought, or whether he has transferred his original personal holding into the vehicle and then bought some more?

[bogg1e] 10/10/2014 16:10

I must upgrade my wow to gosh. Hes only 1 percent away from gasp.

[nellyb] 10/10/2014 16:10

act - i thought so - go and enjoy your bier.

[monts12] 10/10/2014 16:07

it's more than that Bog, if you look at his indirect holdings