Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 16/10/2014 16:48

It is generally accepted that after interims and finals the house broker at least updates the view.
I'll take the view as unchanged for now then.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 16/10/2014 16:40

Well, most house broker reports are too optimistic, by far. That's why I'm wondering if even 1p of earnings next year will be hit?

Is there any danger that this will make a loss next year? As well as this?

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 16/10/2014 16:38

Yes, but the TUNG thread was started at flotation, and my valuation model at that price isn't that far off the projected profits 2 years out. So your rather laboured point is wrong, as always.

Now, are you comfortable with 1p of earnings here next year?

[che7win] 16/10/2014 16:28

How does he do it, every time he opens his mouth the share goes up :-)

who needs a broker update, the business itself has told us we are generating cash just two weeks ago :-)

If we have a foreward P/E, it shows we are profitable next year, compare that to your TUNG which forecasts losses to the tune of £16m next year.

IOF have a strong balance sheet (soon to be even stronger), Lance has ensured with his caution on costs that we are standing on our own two feet (shows astuteness).

Revenue is growing strongly, Admin costs falling strongly, perfect.

Tangible assets have doubled in a year to $26m

Compare that to your TUNG with a loss of £11m this year and forecast £16m next year, £300m market cap and turnover of less than £11m
and admin expense up four fold to £22m.

It's sitting with £114m of intangible assets and a share premium of £160m.

You are bullish on TUNG stuffed full of intangibles, you even created a thread about it.

TUNG reminds me of Infobank, I'd rather have an old economy business any day :-)

[superg1] 16/10/2014 16:23

Che

I keep a list of AIMs that I just watch, some of those I really like the look of for the future.

EG

One stock looked well ahead of itself with a bit of BB traffic on various sites.
In the recent turn it's about 45% down.

Another I like more than that one has bumped along for some time not moving too much, virtually no BB traffic anywhere. Low revenue, low costs but perhaps the MC is a bit ahead of itself.

In the chaos over the last week or so, it's down about 3%.


That picture repeats itself across the list. High BB traffic on AIM's often means big volatility on the price depending on sentiment/market moves.

So now I really like the quiet shares as they have been virtually unaffected in these market circs.

The lack of action tells me those invested in those shares, are not geared or over-exposed in anything in their portfolio which would force them to offload. Such quiet shares don't attract the attention of some hap-hazard funds either.

So those are the ones I watch, and like.

If news comes up on those, then the market wouldn't begin to understand the implications of it. Such shares create opportunities, and all you have to do is do a little research then wait.

If Scrut is reading it's exactly the circumstances he looks for. The last thing he wants when he identifies a share, is busy BB's and tip sheets.

[monts12] 16/10/2014 16:12

I have yet to see a single broker report that's worth the paper it's written on.
DYOR!

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 16/10/2014 16:02

Do we have any broker update? Or are they still going with 1p of earnings next year?

A forward p/e of 43 isn't perhaps the most attractive looking valuation I've ever seen.

[che7win] 16/10/2014 15:38

superg,
I agree, stocks weren't in bubble territory, but clearly there was a lot of tat out there at high valuations.

For instance, there wasn't anything listed this year that I liked the look of, most were listed at
sky high valuations, a warning signal.

I can't stress enough the disconnect between a share price and the business prospects at these times.

The share price is falling in IOF because there are distressed sellers, some are forced sellers.
It is a volatile stock, many investors will have geared up in the markets these past few years and that has
been a good call in the markets generally.

Not right now.

It is unfortunate that we had unexpectantly good news on results followed by water news right at the start
of the wider markets falling. We wouldn't be at this price but for the wider markets.
Poor Tom doing all those good presentations right before a market correction.

It's a temporary thing, the markets and economy are doing quite well. Not the UK economy, it's boom and bust
and built completely on cheap credit consumer led boom, I'm talking about the US which reduced unemployment
again today.

The water valuation is probably north of $30m, food for thought.

[che7win] 16/10/2014 15:03

Chart here suggested bottom on the cloud at 40p.
Hence, I have been watching the share with interest.

Risk came off the table for me when the DOW broke 16500,

The selling has been indiscriminate, safe haven stocks like Glaxo falling, commodities falling, oil falling,
stocks sold across the spectrum.

China slowdown, Ebola, Germany can be used as an excuse, the real reason is stocks were priced too high for
growth prospects, no more buyers left in the market.

I'm glad we've seen a retrace, it helps eliminate a crash. Everyone has been talking about markets peaking for
a while, I've been worried for some time.

Back to IOF. You need to distinguish between the business and the share price.

On the business:
Since Lance came back, the business has turned around, there is no question about that. It may not be
initially apparent, the real turnaround is not fully apparent from the accounts for instance.

The share has a lot of distressed sellers it seems, doesn't reflect on the business as superg says.

[superg1] 16/10/2014 14:32

Brucie

QFI as I recall has no revenue and a high MC while IOF we know is already on record revenue and a relatively low MC.

[chumbo] 16/10/2014 14:27

Somebody appears to have turned the share price graph upside down

[brucie5] 16/10/2014 14:17

Chart will be testing 40 soon, i imagine. QFI looks to be breaking down again below 30, or at least testing support. Not much appetite for risk atm.

[superg1] 16/10/2014 14:10

SP not where it deserves to be but as you know the market across the board is looking for actual results not future value.

Some stocks I watch on daft prices v debt and no income have now started to collapse (unsurprisingly). Once the dust settles the stocks with actual revenue, growth and profits, should start to stand out.

A key date currently is 1st Dec for the public notice period. As posted I anticipate a JV on water which isn't restricted to that date. My guess would be at least 10mill up front and all costs and operations taken on by the partner. Significant for iof but just the cost of 1 bakken well to the big players interested. 7.5 mill in the bank and well set. Chile producers now starting to fall apart. So long term happy my end.

[simon301266] 16/10/2014 13:57

Hi super g thought id drop by and see hope iof was doing , been a while since I have spoken to you or Noli

[cyberbub] 16/10/2014 13:54

200K rollover there - someone confident enough?

[nellyb] 16/10/2014 12:01

what time does netley get up?

[rhwillcoll] 16/10/2014 11:44

Thanks superg1.

The links below show how the water shortages affect people living in the city of Copiapo in N Chile, where the dramatic rescue of 33 people from the gold/copper mine took place. The first link shows the extreme lack of water for the local population, due to over-exploitation by the mining companies and the drought. It mentions the proposed changes to the water laws and why these are needed. It is pretty shocking what the local people now have to put up with, due to lack of water.

[freddievas] 16/10/2014 11:11

I take it that last remark was meant sarcastically!

[rogerbridge] 16/10/2014 10:33

That is very good news for IOF.
Water is also in short supply in the USA. California is another state where there are concerns.
IOF share price is looking very stable.

[superg1] 16/10/2014 09:53

EG as in news yesterday.

The declaration of water shortage will be valid for six months, but may be extended.

A water shortage has also been declared in municipalities in southern Maule (VII) and northern Coquimbo (IV) regions, where reservoirs are currently 66% below normal levels.

Last week, President Michelle Bachelet proposed amendments to the nation's water code in order to make human consumption and sanitation a priority. The proposed reform would make it possible to limit water rights temporarily under special circumstances, such as a drought.

If you recall the Cosayach prosecution in May, it related to an area called Pampa del Tamarugal. That area in a national reserve, the actions of Cosayach caused trees there to die.
SQM were challenging Cosayach as they hold the water rights there of 570 litres per second.

[superg1] 16/10/2014 09:47

Some changes to Chile water laws are starting to be mentioned. They are not easy to digest especially when using google translate which then complicates it further. So it will take some time to work out what the initial comments cover.

One part that rang bells covers national parks and the like, as I know the area Cosayach and SQM are in saw damage to a protected desert forest when Cosayach did the illegal water withdrawal.

Then comments about the power to restrict restrict/suspend water rights in drought affected areas. Chile news is now full of severe drought areas and announced areas of concern.

Typically the iodine production areas suffer severe drought

[che7win] 16/10/2014 09:41

ACT,
please tell me your latest valuation (EPS 2015 figures) for TUNG.
As you use two year valuation metrics, you might as well throw in 2016.