Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[monkeymagic3] 18/9/2014 10:19

Superg1 18 Sep'14 - 09:33 - 24603 of 24608 0 2


(MM3 it includes the word nipple so it may be of interest to you :-))



The only thing i want to read is an RNS from IOF that is not an obfuscation of bs, ludicrous assumptions, short term predictions and "information" that borders on mis-information.

If it happens say "nipple" that is just a bonus, particularly if preceeded by "angry private investors proceeded to vent their dismay at the IOF board by using a blow torch on their.........."

[roboben] 18/9/2014 10:12

Fresh .. That was me, and I was wrong.

This is obviously both frustrating and annoying for all except those with spare cash, which allows them to take advantage of what I suspect will be a temporary hit. Not me, sadly!

I doubt that we'll see any real recovery with the interims but will have to wait until the monthly production figures actually start to ramp up again. If only I could be as wrong about that as I was about this.

I do actually think that with Dr Becker in charge the company is in very good hands. Look at what he has achieved with the chemical division. Consequently, I think the medium to long term future will be rewarding for those who hang in through this.

[freshvoice] 18/9/2014 09:59

40mt was Lance being bullish ashen 200p: bring in others and reality returns. Then they get blame for telling truth. Who said they wouldn't land Tom in it.

[awolagain] 18/9/2014 09:59

Mad

' I was assuming that Lance wouldn't be irresponsible. My fault, obviously.'

No you are not wrong...Lance was....however, he has been wrong footed along the line somewhere...I do not think he pulled that number out of the air. I am sure he is embarrassed and disappointed. But as I said before...a blip on the screen.

[madchick] 18/9/2014 09:39

naphar thanks, my thoughts exactly. Just to clarify SG, I'm not having a go at you. It's IOF. I do read the RNSs quite carefully, but dismissed all that stuff you raised thinking that IOF weren't stupid and must have around 30MT bagged already to be making a 40MT prediction. I was assuming that Lance wouldn't be irresponsible. My fault, obviously.

[superg1] 18/9/2014 09:39

Naph as posted I entirely agree with the 40mt forecast.

If we can read into an rns and think it's probably unlikely, then who made the decision to forecast 40mt.

As in another posts they should have added something to clarify that point.

40mt looks as though it was entirely weighted on complete reliance on matters not complete at the time of the rns. The rns should have covered that point in my opinion.

It can't be defended. Unless of course it was in the rns and removed by the nomad, but I doubt that would have happened.

[superg1] 18/9/2014 09:33

Re the tech.

I did ask IOF what tech the company was putting in, all I was told was 'gun barrel' type.

There is type for high water cuts, but we know they had a lot of oil in it too.

There is pdf to read (zzzz), but from the details I suspect it can take a few weeks to get it optimised. So the operator may have reduced flows to do that, or one unit isn't enough if the oil amounts are high. I've no idea, I'm just trying to work it out from info about the technology.

Hence my caution about that tech being up to speed immediately, and reliance on the operator.

It includes-

(MM3 it includes the word nipple so it may be of interest to you :-))

MAKING IT WORK RIGHT

When a new HWBS™ is first put in service it may take a while for it to accumulate enough oil to begin to put oil into the sales oil tank. Once it does, the lease operator should color cut the tank to determine the
thickness of the oil layer. It is always shown on HTC’s drawing, and is typically 4-6 feet depending on the oil gravity (heavier oil = thicker oil layer).

The oil layer should be maintained at the designed elevation. If it deviates more than 12” from the elevation shown on HTC’s drawing the water leg must be adjusted to bring it into normal tolerances. In SWD Plant applications the trucked–in water may vary in its weight (specific gravity). In these instances, the water leg may need to be adjusted daily to optimize oil recovery. If this is the case, and the HWSB™ was delivered with a removable upper inside pipe water nipple, either several different length nipples
should be cut and kept close by (on the walkway near the water leg, for instance), or the operator should order the external adjustment assembly and retrofit the water leg to make this adjustment fast and easy.

[naphar] 18/9/2014 09:32

"The rns is of no surprise based on the last one, I too think it was irresponsible to forecast 40mt, as now it seems clear it was based on expected partner actions rather than good current circs.

Whatever share it is, always read the news in detail."

SG - it's not about reading the news in detail though. When i read the 40mt forecast, I was surprised, having read the rest of the RNS. But, we were being told 40mt and exit rate of 1.7mt/day.

If they had told us about 25mt for August, I would have had no real issue, but would have been a bit disappointed. I am a bit disappointed with the actual output result. I am incredibly angry that such a forecast was put out and then totally missed for the month. I really wonder where/who it came from and why.

[superg1] 18/9/2014 09:17

Mad

I hadn't the slightest clue how it was going and could only go on the July rns to try and work out the chances of hitting 40mt.

Without going into detail they pointed out io2 was shut in during the first week of August and that fitted in with the operator upgrade. The upgrade was supposed to be complete 'mid August' yet the rns was mid August (14th), so it seemed very risky to rely on the operator completing it, turning it on and giving a big thumbs up.

Io4 had a similar comment re the booster pump. Io6 didn't start until that week and we know it can take 30 days of more to get plants up to speed.

Io5 started that month and that needed to get up to speed.

The rns is of no surprise based on the last one, I too think it was irresponsible to forecast 40mt, as now it seems clear it was based on expected partner actions rather than good current circs.

I know my negativity didn't go down well, but the rns didn't seem to support that 40mt could be achieved without perfect execution all round.

I don't mind the frack disruption and other issues, as I am long term (as boring as some find that), it's just the daft forecast that narks me.

The July production should have included the reliance of perfect execution to achieve 40mt then all would have been aware of the risk.

Whatever share it is, always read the news in detail.

[sweetnodude] 18/9/2014 09:15

No real surprises in this mornings RNS given the recent track record of overstating and under delivering.
'and lower water volumes after the SWD site upgrade'
madchick - that was the only info that worried me and needs clarifying imo. GLA

[jch18] 18/9/2014 09:13

Revenues will increase by about 1/3rd this year, if everything remains steady for the remaining 4 months. But what does this mean for profits/losses? What is the max output available currently and can it be reached and maintained? The latter seems unlikely due to so many outside factors.

What do the long term prospects really rely on. Is it iodine prices or the ability to increase production or management? It is probably all 3, but the latter is currently the most important - especially with rns guestimates.

[joestalin] 18/9/2014 09:08

Small top up for me here. I was not expecting overnight success, and never have. Dropping the price 10% on a small drop in output was fairly predictable anyway.

[madchick] 18/9/2014 09:01

Whoever predicted it would be a Thursday was correct!

Roll on 2015.

[madchick] 18/9/2014 08:52

SG - my disappointment is mostly due to IOF making an irresponsible prediction. It's so not what they needed to do. I expected IOF to have taken into account all those things when making their prediction. But I will try not to flog a dead horse!

IOF Chemical put out some really good news in that RNS and I hope it doesn't get overlooked.

Current RNS
In light of current fracking schedules, delays in the start of production at IO#5 and IO#6, and lower water volumes after the SWD site upgrade...

I read this as meaning that the SWD upgrade has finished and from now on will be providing lower water volumes? Hence no hope for improvement. Your reading is that these lower volumes are temporary?

[tim3416] 18/9/2014 08:49

You didn't take the bet though did you Shonny!

[awolagain] 18/9/2014 08:39

It is a bit disappointing and I can only imagine Lance is at the top of the list of the most disappointed. However, it is only a blip on the screen of the bigger picture.
Mr Market is doing it's normal over reacting thing this morning. Nothing has changed in the bigger plan....we can expect ups and downs in any new business. If there are any business men or women here they will fully understand and raise an eyebrow and say relax or get out of the kitchen if you can't stand the heat.

[mister big] 18/9/2014 08:37

The steaks are on the grill and sizzling !!
Lol picked up
250 at around 44p and lots of lemmings lining up ..

[roundup] 18/9/2014 08:36

I think that Tom has now set a benchmark , this is what newly appointed executives do. He has given us the worst scenario and from this point we can judge his performance. It won't take much effort on his part to show massive growth.

[shonny] 18/9/2014 08:35

Weren't you expecting the share price to have been £1 in June Mr Big. I seem to remember you offering me a bet on that. I see you're throwing more money away today.

[monkeymagic3] 18/9/2014 08:34

Hurricane. 18 Sep'14 - 08:07 - 24577 of 24589 1 1

Got to love the lemmings. It's how the market transfers wealth



You would agree that for this to be true, the share price would actually have to increase at some point? Correct?

[monkeymagic3] 18/9/2014 08:32

Hurricane. 18 Sep'14 - 08:02 - 24573 of 24588 0 1

Like hurdling cattle lol


Hurricane, why would you try to hurdle cattle? (Or were you actually trying to mount it?)

[muffster] 18/9/2014 08:29

Morning che7win. Still think this is well above fair value.

[superg1] 18/9/2014 08:28

Mad
As posted on here it was obvious I didn't acceot that 40mt could be hit and listed the potential issues.

I did look up the SWD tech, but folk find such points boring. The whole point of the SWD tech was to reduce the amount of oil loss the operator was suffering.

Such things need tweaking to get optimum performance. The rns said it was going in, not in, and as called we couldn't rely on them being on time. Then it would need tweaking to get it right.

The brine flow reduction no doubt will be down to sorting out the added technology. It's not new and innovative so no worries there, it was just case of Midstates bringing their skimming tech up to date.

So yes the 40mt forecast, with so much reliance on perfect execution on matters beyond their control, was a not a clever move.

I was right to suggest caution based on that July rns. That was based on reading the rns thoroughly.

[mister big] 18/9/2014 08:27

Fest - Hoover switched on and sucking lol
This stock is a master class in how to invest and how not to invest !

[kcowe] 18/9/2014 08:18

the continued disappointment on production figures coupled with outrageous numbers bandied about here not so long ago ,will magnify the downside. the psychology here is all messed up.