Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 11/9/2014 12:38

Roger

Yes too many short termers, but most of those are PIs trying to be traders and it very seldom pays off. Trading generally takes a lot of skill so it's best left to the experts, where it only pays off for the few.

There are a few shares I'm watching. I actually spoke to a team in April, mid September on the way and none of their news hints have appeared.

Some in an rns was supposed to appear in Q1, but still nothing. I think many new companies learn, that what they would consider news, can easily be refused or reduced to nothing by he nomad who had the final say.

That's just the way it is.

So when some moan that an update is late, then I think about how lucky we are to get one.

FUM just sprang to mind as I said that. I listened to their web conference, where they talked about the shelf life preference of partners meaning a 2015 launch date for some deals.

What they haven't said is they told funds that in presentations 1 year ago, that's why the share price dived to 50p as they knew Church and Dwight wouldn't launch until 2015. PIs found out about that point today, about 1 year on, having been left thinking Church and Dwight would launch in 2014

Now did FUM refuse to tell PIs, or did the nomad refuse to let them?

If you chat to CEOs they will happily tell you nomads block some news and it never appears, and also remove content, often it can be content that PIs moan about not being present in an rns.

I'm often highly suspicious about the motive of nomads on that topic.

I rang one recently to cover some points on a share I'm looking at. Surprise surprise they hadn't got the first clue about the company they were covering, and couldn't answer some basic questions.

That's why many steer clear of the AIM. You have to do your own research, relying on nomads and tip sheets is pointless on the AIM.

It's amazing how people will fly into a share when it's tipped. Most often I suspect on the quiet unloved ones, it's a favour for a large holder to sell some.

[orslega] 11/9/2014 12:08

rogerbridge - agreed; am looking forward to Tom giving current production rates, August ended nearly 2 weeks ago....and some positive news on Chesa brine flows..things can (and hopefully will) change here very quickly imo...

[engelo] 11/9/2014 12:04

Meanwhile our Opex is hopefully heading down :-)

[rogerbridge] 11/9/2014 10:57

I too will be pleased when the figures are out of the way and we can return to some sort of normality.
There are too many short termers here, we all want to make money, that's why we are invested. We are heading in the right direction and there will be bumps along the way, however long term profitability is what I am looking for.
I hope we all make money, day traders included.
I am not expecting wonderful figures for August, due to too many uncertainties.
September and onwards should be ramping up to full output.
Interesting to hear about the pods and water when news is released.

[engelo] 11/9/2014 10:21

Maybe that's it: everything goes into the IMS with TB's name on it, draws the line on a dodgy half year and looks forward to a great H2.

[engelo] 11/9/2014 10:13

SG 'now is the time to press on' : absolutely :-)Like 1 mad would like these figures out of the way. Fairly sure that the 40 and 1.7 targets are ok: as they were RNsed as expectations think they would hAve to inform us if they were not met.As it is the figures could be drawn into the Interim Management Statement, we also have the Review about to be delivered to say nothing of water. Getting very congested ;-)

[superg1] 11/9/2014 09:12

1MM

On the basic view the competition issue doesn't carry the red flags it did 12 months ago.

It seems the entire Chilean iodine production sector has gone into reverse. The claims from over a year ago, about what they were going to do this year is way off what has actually happened.

It was all bluff tactics and was totally reliant on prices staying high for execution of it.

EG

SQM were looking for a move towards 12,000 to 14,000 mt starting this year with the move to Pampa Blanca. Their actual production looks set to be about 8000 to 8300 mt.

Sirocco planes to be heading past 2000mt this year, they forecast 1000mt and abandoned/postponed their plans.

It's a common theme, so now through 2015 is the time for IOF to press on, especially if prices start to rise.

[1madmarky] 11/9/2014 09:04

Would like a couple more monthly updates tbh. But that would probably give too much information to our competition. It's a case of trust / confidence in the company and management. This has greatly improved IMHO, but I would still like more evidence / proof.

[superg1] 11/9/2014 08:35

No problem Mik.

I see the T trade folk are busy of the down votes, it's true. You only have to check historic buys and the comings to work out some 'sells' have been on borrowed cash.

If we go on share price moves then July in theory should have been 45mt plus but it was 25.

The monthly update while comforting short term creates a gambler situation.

I know many are long term. EG if it's 30mt or 50mt for August it doesn't make the slightest difference to me in terms of holding IOF. I have no plans to sell any, it's a long term hold.

So while it's 'comforting' once they have settled down I'll be glad to see the back of the regular updates.

Other shares I have an interest in don't seem to report anything for months, and it's no issue for shareholders it seems.

I certainly see the delayed news history logic, but the first one was all about putting right a very big wrong.

If they have hit 1.7mt plus consistently I assume all is forgiven. If you do the maths they were on 1.3mt per day without io5 or 6, io4 struggling for brine and io2 getting a lot of oil, all of those points have been, or are being addressed. So 1.7mt clearly isn't the top end, just an anticipated rate short term.

[mikkydhu] 10/9/2014 21:47

Thanks, sg, for your full explanation re slickwater fracking and dilution.

[woodpeckers] 10/9/2014 21:29

Well said, naphar.

As che pointed out earlier, "For the sake of transparency, the Board will report regularly on iodine production rates, WHILST KEEPING MINDFUL OF COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE."

Let's trust management to do what's best for the company, this is obviously a complex industry.

[naphar] 10/9/2014 20:22

Fresh
I am not saying we won't get the info for August, simply that it might come with the interims whenever they are delivered in September.

Nor am I looking to pick on what was said by analysing the definition of a word. The intent was clearly explained at the AGM, and that told me not to expect this news to be on day or even week x each time.

Whether you like or not, Lance had his reasons, also explained at AGM. I prefer to find out at some point than not be told at all.

[freshvoice] 10/9/2014 19:28

Naphar
Regular means equally spaced!
After three monthly updates to not issue one for August would not be REGULAR!

[naphar] 10/9/2014 18:59

Sorry folks but man of you are forgetting/do not realise something. IOF never promised monthly updates. They promised regular updates. Lance, at the AGM was at pains to point that out.

My bet is still they will announce August output with interims, whenever they come.

No point moaning about lack of timely reporting when regular did not mean monthly.

[bogg1e] 10/9/2014 18:57

I think the issue is more to do with several factors, one staff has been trimmed to a minimum including accounts which would be preparing the monthly production data. Secondly the company is very dynamic at the moment and so there may be quite a lot of news that is best incorporated into one rns. If production numbers are poorer than guidance suggests, it doesn't matter when it is announced, later or earlier wont affect the numbers for a given period, so i see little point in trying to interpret the timing of news.

[freshvoice] 10/9/2014 18:31

Agree with Danster
Early equals good
Late equals not so good.
Very late equals We need an excuse.

[danster4] 10/9/2014 17:24

The best update was released on 3 June, so one would have thought they should have the data by working day three. The latter two updates were later and both with weaker output, has felt that they were held back, to report on a stronger current months performance.

I like the updates, but consistency on their timings (working day 9 of each month for example) would remove a lot of uncertainty.

[woodpeckers] 10/9/2014 17:01

For me the rates aren't too important now that we know that the technology is proven. Tweaking is bound to be needed and we have to expect good and not so good months for a while until they work out how to achieve optimum results.

The appointment of a new CEO tells me that Lance and Jeff are confident that the company is heading in the right direction now and can solve any problems along the way, so I'm happy.

[che7win] 10/9/2014 16:45

"For the sake of transparency, the Board will report regularly on iodine production rates, whilst keeping mindful of competitive advantage."

Logically, if they are doing monthly updates, they should be within a week of month end, good or bad, but I agree with others that no timeframe was promised, as much as it frustrates me.

[angel of the north] 10/9/2014 16:29

They are taking a risk then as, although I think the update may come tomorrow....it could also come 7 days later on the 18th and still be deemed to be within schedules.