Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[bogg1e] 12/9/2014 18:19

Last years results were on the 25th september and were announced on the 6th. So hopefully in a couple of weeks we will get 1) accounts/results and 2)August production update. Hopefully 3) the operational review and 4) news on the next phase of the roll out. If we are lucky we will get 5) potential offtake agreements and 6) water permit update. Lots to look forward to.

[superg1] 12/9/2014 16:17

kata

I assume most would wait for the news, as pointed out on trade codes some 'sells' recently were forced 'sells' as they were T trades.

EG there was a 50k T trade buy on 20th August. A T 20 would require that to be settled 17 days later, which was earlier this week when a similar sized broken up trade sold.

That won't have been the only one trying to forecast the news release time.

The original 'buy' was at 63/64 which would have had a bit on top for the 20 day loan period.

That's just picking on an obvious one, there are others.

Generally PIs buy when a price is rising fearing on missing out, and they sell if the price drops in fear.

I assume long termers will wait for news and then consider the option to top up, as price is not as important as progress for many.

Price and timing is everything to traders. The further away news is the more T trades there will be that have expired.

Many times some comment about 'why sell' when a share releases good news and the price jumps. The fact is a percentage are T trades, and they simply don't have the cash, so they immediately sell on any hike to pocket any profit available.

If the share price is flat and the required good news doesn't come, once the time is up, that's it, they have to sell. Then some watching, think 'oooh bad news, someone knows something they are selling' etc.

I suppose the best traders on small volume AIM shares make a note of the T trades as it gives an advantage on timings to buy/sell.

EG if you know a T Trade for 100k shares is 14/15 days into it's cycle of 17, then best to exit before the 100k sell hits.

A reason to buy on these prices would be waiting for T Trades to close, then buy in the knowledge they are likely to pull the trigger again on another T Trade.

In fact anyone that buys shares generally does a T 3 trade. As that is how long it's takes for the cash top exit your account, but it also takes 3 days to go back into your account if you sold, so there is no real credit period.

Hence a T 20 takes needs the funds covered on day 17 (working days).

The TA folk that appear may note T trades. If you have the time, and do it for a living, it is probably worth tracking such trades.

[kattatogaru] 12/9/2014 15:29

Meanwhile we're drifting back down to 55 ish, assuming this is just people getting jittery at the supposed delay in RNS, at what point would you folks consider topping up?

[woodpeckers] 12/9/2014 14:36

gad, I suppose that could account for the difference in cost though why do they say they sold 518 tonnes at an average price of US $36 per kg during Q2 2014 and then later state the average selling price for the quarter as 39?

[gadolinium] 12/9/2014 14:11

Is the difference in production cost and sale costs because some of their sold material is from inventory (they sold more than they produced) and this inventory material had a higher cost of production?

[woodpeckers] 12/9/2014 14:00

RB's Q2 operations update is rather confusing. They appear to give different figures in the written synopsis to those in the 'chart'. Can anyone explain why this is? I presume their next report will be out mid October giving details of Q3 to end September figures.

"For the three months ended June 30, 2014, Aguas Blancas produced 314 tonnes of iodine at a cash cost of US $22 per kg and sold 518 tonnes at an average price of US $36 per kg during Q2 2014. High sales volumes in Q2 2014 offset the low volumes of sales in Q1 2014, which were due principally to disrupted shipments from Chile as a result of earthquakes and a port strike."

Three Months Ended Jun-14 Mar-14

Iodine produced (t) (Note 1) 314 211
Iodine sold (t) (Note 1) 518 126
Iodine avg. price ($/kg) (Note 1) 39 40
Iodine cash operating cost($/kg)(Note 1,2) 24 27

Note 1: revenues and iodine data are for the post-Arrangement period, from February 1 onwards. During Q1 2014, sales volumes were negatively affected as shipments were disrupted by a port strike and earthquakes in Chile.

Note 2: this is a non-GAAP measure. As shown below, it was calculated by dividing cost of sales, adjusted for the change in inventory and the related depreciation, by quantities of iodine produced in the period.

[monkeymagic3] 12/9/2014 13:59

Well this is tedious. Think I preferred Helium.

[gadolinium] 12/9/2014 13:33

I begin to think the purity grade descriptions on these sites are fairly meaningless as they really don't correlate in any consistent way with prices as far as I can see. I still think they are useful to keep an eye on as a means of following the trend in prices over time, but not the absolute price as such.

[superg1] 12/9/2014 13:09

No really as the figures using crude iodine come out higher. It's a very strange site zauba.

[gadolinium] 12/9/2014 11:43

Super, post:24348,
Just read your post>
Your persistence is OK, I understand your concerns and recognize the discrepencies you point out. Hopefully post 24349 helps resolve some of these.

I like the Zauba site because it presents the data graphically.

[gadolinium] 12/9/2014 11:36

Super, post 24344:

I admit the terminology is not always consistent, it does seem odd to describe one batch as iodine 99.5% min purity, another as crude iodine 99.5% PCT and yet another as crude iodine (99.5% MIN) prills. How can it be called crude if its 99.5% pure and prilled? However, as far as I can see these are all iodine, not iodine derivatives, perhaps the manufacturers differ in their product description.

I tried your suggestion of searching Zauba on crude iodine and got the following results month ($/kg):

Jan (46.28), Feb (42.46), Mar (41.46), Apr (40.11), May (39.04), Jun (38.34), Jul (37.59), Aug (37.41) and Sep to date (37.16)

This compares with the corresponding figures searching on iodine 99.5 of:

Jan (43.73), Feb (40.87), Mar (38.97), Apr (39.08), May (38.29), June (37.37), July (36.18), Aug (35.2) and Sep to date (34.71)

Obviously the trend is still down for both sets of data, but the absolute price is higher for the crude iodine data (which seems odd) and the recent rate of decline is slower for the crude iodine figures.

[superg1] 12/9/2014 11:36

Gad

Excuse my persistence but I know you are a chemist and in that field everything has got to be spot on, and I know how deep you look into patents.

It's up to you to use that 99 5 search, but it of the search facilities that seems to be the one at odds with everything else.

I like this site as found by someone here, as it saves in the INR conversion as the unit prices are shown in $.

Here is the link, and I have used the product code.



Note your search brings up many of these which are the lower prices

IODINE 99.5% MIN .PURITY

But then in the same list crude iodine shows a $3/4 dollar difference. That can't be right on what we know about iodine.

Flake or crystal iodine sells for less than prilled iodine. We know there isn't a big market for it as end users prefer prilled iodine.

I'm half wondering if the different descriptions are particular to how the supplier fills out the description column on the form.



O

[superg1] 12/9/2014 11:13

As said Gad searching on crude iodine or prilled iodine brings up higher prices.

I think that search helps knock out iodine related products.

here is one for 5th Sept narrowing it down to prilled.

28012000

IODE MICROBILLES USP (PRILLED IODINE)2200KG S42.59385246

So 5th Sept someone in India paid $42.59 per kg for 2200 kgs, it came from Chile.

That's a price IOF said they were getting in the US for their prilled iodine.

Using that description some also paid near $48 per kg for 400kg in July.

So when India say crude iodine, do they mean the flake which is cheaper.

[cyberbub] 12/9/2014 11:13

I think we're dancing on a pinhead here. Clearly the international iodine price is still flat or maybe ticking down slightly. The key question is what will it be in 6-12 months?I think a better question to try and 'definitively' answer is where have the large increases in iodine purchases in India come from?Can someone actually just contact one of these Indian importers (or use business contacts etc) and ask them where they have bought it from?Can we expect a market update from RB at any point, about the level of their stocks?

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 12/9/2014 11:10

Brucie5,

You seem like an intelligent chap. If you have followed this sorry saga over the past year or so you'd know exactly what I mean.

If you gave this shower £10m today they'd announce they've lost it on Monday.

Ignore everything you read apart from this post, it's not for you.

[superg1] 12/9/2014 10:59

I think I have spotted the potential problem but need to work on it to identify the exact issue.

In the 99 5 iodine search it brings up crude iodine at the 36 to 38 rates.

For the lower prices it says iodine 99.5% minimum.

So I'm wondering if it's a product 99.5% pure with iodine in it.

EG all the low prices are listed against

IODINE 99.5% MIN .PURITY

But the higher prices are shown against

CRUDE IODINE 99.5 PERCENT.

I suspect the iodine 99 5 search brings up other products as well as crude iodine and prilled iodine.

It can't be that the top grade iodine is cheaper than crude iodine, so something is distorting the figures on the iodine 99 5 search.

Hey maybe someone even sent that confusing data to Laura. I'll ask, I know someone that knows her personally.

[gadolinium] 12/9/2014 10:59

Che,
Thank you for the clarification, I did wonder if you had some inside knowledge 'as it were'.

[gadolinium] 12/9/2014 10:55

I believe my search is valid as a measure of the trend in iodine price if not the absolute price. 99.5% iodine crystal is the usual article of commerce and is the grade monitored by IM. Crude iodine or even prilled iodine need not all be the same purity.
I am quite happy for others to take a different view.

[che7win] 12/9/2014 10:47

gad,
the "e.g. $20 kg" comment was an example, not a known figure.
What I do know is that it was around $30kg Spring time and has been trending down over the last number, the company does see a mid-teens per kg figure as achievable.
Someone else mentioned efficiency gains, they have been increasing plant efficiency within their controllable parameters whilst cutting staff so they are moving ahead on a number of fronts I believe.

[superg1] 12/9/2014 10:37

gadolinium
12 Sep'14 - 10:14 - 24336 of 24338 1 0Moderate | Ban


'I am not selecting my data. I am comparing exactly the same criteria on exactly the same site month by month to obtain strictly comparable figures and provide a bias free picture of the trend in prices.'

As in the last post, obviously not, you have singled out one site and chosen a system to search that doesn't match anything else.

The crude iodine search would bring up the lower value flakes too.

If you chose prilled iodine or crude iodine, it matches what other import sites are recording. The only fly in the ointment, is the 99 5 search facility.

[jasisdad] 12/9/2014 10:33

Gad/Super Looking at that website between 1/9 and 10/9 - 72,400 kg were shipped with Total Value 152,123,216 = INR 2,101 per kg. Agree shouldn't look at rate of exchanges as this can blur the landscape a little so just to compare August to September average in rupees shows a 2% reduction as below. Between 1/8 and 30/8 - 82,902 kgs were shipped with value of 177,546,465 or 2,141 per kg ie 2% reduction. One question these are imports into India. Do all markets pay the same price ie is there a global price or do the Indians pay more or less?

[superg1] 12/9/2014 10:33

Gad

Thanks I opened the link to see what the graph takes details from and it becomes very confusing.

Click on 'actual iodine import data', One column shows some low prices, then in the list below for different imports levels most of prices match the higher rates I mention.

But then some imports are not listed elsewhere meaning India are importing more than first thought.

That site to me is flawed.

Just try 'iodine prills or prilled' instead. We know Iodine prills are the 99.5% plus grade and preferred.



July 37.77 Aug 38.60, Sept 39.63.

Even better if you just search on crude iodine, which in theory should bring up a cheaper price than 99.5, then you get.

37.59, 37.41 and 37.16 for the last 3 months.

Something is clearly wrong on that site

[gadolinium] 12/9/2014 10:22

Che post 24320:

'Overall though, we are still gaining by our costs for iodine now at e.g. $20 kg compared to $50kg a year ago.'

Where does your figure of $20/kg cost come from?