Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[gadolinium] 12/9/2014 10:14

I am not selecting my data. I am comparing exactly the same criteria on exactly the same site month by month to obtain strictly comparable figures and provide a bias free picture of the trend in prices.
Once you start to select data between different sites then you encounter problems associated with differences in selection and currency conversion rates etc.

[gadolinium] 12/9/2014 10:04

Super,
$34.71 taken from Zauba average price/unit graph 99.5 iodine

hxxps://www.zauba.com/importanalysis-iodine+99+5-report.html

[superg1] 12/9/2014 09:57

Gad

Can you please list all the 99.5% plus iodine prices to show your info to be correct, looking at both sites and all the data, something seems to be wrong with your figures.

EG

On Zauba 99.5% plus iodine.

Total kg this month 62,400 kg at an INR average price 2273.8 INR. Current exchange rate 60.8.

Average iodine price for 99.5% plus for Sept $37.40.

Where are you getting $34.71.

Even if you just pick on the 2 big 21.6mt imports on 1st and 10th it comes out at $37.06 per kg.

[superg1] 12/9/2014 09:30

Not forgetting of course that good old Laura of Industrial minerals has had to do a U turn in the past on her comments about derivative prices.

'Iodine derivatives price cut rumours “incorrectR21;, says Iofina

The US-based company that produces iodine from waste drilling brines has suffered from operational and management problems in the last year, but denies that it slashed the price of its...

[superg1] 12/9/2014 09:24

Gad

Your figures seem flawed and you are selective on your choice of prices.

Here is the data and it shows if it's 99.5% iodine.



Here is your Zauba site and I know in the past you mention the 21.6 mt



2 days ago the 21.6 mt appeared at a unit price of 2249, that divided by the 60.8 exchange rate gives $36.99 per kg for the largest apparent order type in India.

The last 2 of that size were 2268 and 2258, a change of 33 cents per kg which could be down to the currency changes.

So both sites show prices of 37 and 38 per kg for 99.5% plus iodine.

I could pick out all the best prices of course and get that average up, as the highest prices seem to be Japan related.

[freshvoice] 12/9/2014 09:16

At this rate they will be able to report on Q3 with August figures. LOL

[gadolinium] 12/9/2014 09:06

Despite all these reassurances, taken together the IM analysis and Zauba import prices still, for me, point to a falling price and excess supply over demand due to slow down in China. Zauba average price for September to date now at $34.71/kg, down again from August ($35.2/kg).
Hopefully this excess supply will eventually work its way out of the system or demand will rise, but not yet.

[che7win] 12/9/2014 08:21

superg,
thanks for that, I follow the trend on those Indian websites, I've been told a couple of times that they are well behind the current situation price wise, there must be a lag in when the price is negotiated and delivery takes place of at least 6 weeks.

It has more or less stabilised from what I can see, prices aren't must lower since March, but as you have indicated, I suspect some distressed sellers are willing to sell at any price right now.

A few of the Chilean competitors have been carrying inventory for some time, so the cost of that production has been covered by them (e.g. RB Energy). In that regard, if they need the money, they will be sellers at below cost or at marginal prices at best.

These prices aren't sustainable in the long term, some of the Chileans can make a few bucks per kg sold at this price, but that means no capital for replenishing and developing new mines, new water pipelines, new machinery and servicing and covering debts, taxes and so on.

So I agree with others, when the inventory is gone, then we will see the true picture.

Back to lurking.

[superg1] 12/9/2014 08:21

Those figures.

India imports from Chile

Q1 70-80mt

Q2 220 mt

Q3 about 500mt so far.

As stated in that post on the topic, I suspect RB will be selling their inventory in a desperate manner to keep the Lithium side funded, they are desperate for cash. As 30th June they had about 630mt left.

When they stopped supplying I did ask questions about who did they stop supplying too. The India and China markets were suggested as demand had dropped.

If you look at the India import data they only imported 11 mt in Dec 13 from Chile, so the points are all supported.

So the likely sellers from Chile to India are RB energy with their inventory, if it is them at this rate it won't be around long.

[cyberbub] 12/9/2014 08:18

Www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29163109Water is becoming ever more valuable?

[monkeymagic3] 12/9/2014 08:17

Chile raising its head again here.

August MUST be bad.

[bocker01] 12/9/2014 08:11

Exactly Che, couldn't agree more!

[superg1] 12/9/2014 08:10

Che

The market I'm told tends to be active in H1.

India as mentioned in a post didn't import a lot in Q1, but it has taken off in H2, July being the highest month. So it seems the India activity kicked off in July with that 280mt.

EG

66mt imported into India from Chile so far this month in 12 days.

72mt was imported into India from Chile for the entire Q1 period

[che7win] 12/9/2014 08:04

Bocker, Yes, short term inventory build up in Chile is working its way out of supply, I agree that supply after that will not be sustainable at these prices.

[superg1] 12/9/2014 07:44

Gad

I keep tracking the India side and their is no sign it's falling further. Turkemenistan always seem to undercut the price but they only produce a few hundred mt annually, the last of theirs is shown as crude iodine.

For Chile the last few prices have been just under 37 per kg for Chile and in the last few days for 99.5% plus 38.64 to 38.88




How can it affect the derivatives price short term if it's a contracted rate?

When the price was flying IOF honoured the original lower price rates as in their news.

But the main point for now seems that there is no indication from the source we have used for months, that the price is falling.

[bocker01] 12/9/2014 07:16

Che, that's pretty much in line with my thinking. I also tend to think that Chilean supply taken off the market now will require a very different economic case to come back. The economic environment there is becoming so much tougher for miners. Mines of course have re-opening costs too. Low prices could do us a long term favour providing we remain profitable and with our costs, we should. So I am not sure that current price levels should worry us to much . Next year supply and demand imbalances will probably lead to sharp price increases anyway.

[che7win] 12/9/2014 07:05

Gadolinium,
Yes, you are correct, it will affect the derivatives price to a degree, so although we have record revenue, margins will be affected by iodine decreasing.

However, I was told that there is a lag before prices of derivatives adjust, it can be up to 9 months if I recall my conversation correctly.

Also, some derivatives are inelastic and insensitive to the price as we have no competitors or few competitors for them and customers will tend to stay with the same supplier, the iodine derivative being such a small ingredient in the customers finished product cycle.

Overall though, we are still gaining by our costs for iodine now at e.g. $20 kg compared to $50kg a year ago.

The Chinese and Indian markets have not recovered as much as expected this year.

[bogg1e] 11/9/2014 23:52

Don't forget when the iodine price was $38 per kilo a few months back, IOF were still getting $42 per kilo, due to the quality. Additionally, next years increase in excess production will coincide neatly with a sharp drop off in iodine supply. Until then the additional markup on the IOC side will keep IOF ticking over nicely. Also remember a drop in the price of iodine does not necessarily mean a commensurate drop in the value of a derivative, as the value-add process can hide these margin variants.

[gadolinium] 11/9/2014 22:14

Bocker,
Lower the better?

Can't agree, even though we may not sell much raw iodine, the market price of our iodine derivatives will also be related to the market price of iodine.

[monty panesar] 11/9/2014 21:13

Not that it matters to IOF,being the lowest cost producer,but their iodine production cycle is one day compared to 6 months in Chile. The IO5 electricity issue demonstrated that.

[monty panesar] 11/9/2014 21:03

Chilean iodine production dropped significantly at the end of 2013. The iodine production cycle is around 6 months out there as the iodine has to be leached.As has been said here many times it is Sirocco(RB Energy) are who the ones who have been dumping onto the world market their iodine production from last year to help finance their lithium project.

RB have no capital to resume iodine production having meant to originally get to 5% market.

Cyberhub all the signs are that the unwinding of positions has been going on for the last 6 months and will bottom soon with a shortage next year.

[bocker01] 11/9/2014 21:03

Lower the better. Bear in mind that the effect on Iof is negligible due to our tiny external sales. But for the big boys it 's a killer . Once a mine is closed the cost of re opening is phenomenal ! Low prices are great. Hopefully a huge chunk of capacity will have gone by the time It's an issue for us.

[cyberbub] 11/9/2014 20:32

Every price, whether shares or commodities, has its bottom, often preceded by a sharp drop as the last desperate sellers dump their last load... if there really is an iodine stockpile being unwound then it may take a while yet...

[gadolinium] 11/9/2014 19:13

I have not seen the full article, but todays Industrial Minerals headline does not look encouraging.

---------------------------------------------

Iodine prices weaken as China fails to lift market

By Laura Syrett
Published: Thursday, 11 September 2014

Summer hiatus in price decline comes to an end as market resumes downward trend

Prices for iodine have fallen further as the market heads into autumn, sources have indicated to IM.

The decline in prices appeared to have come to a halt in August, fuelling faint hopes that the market had...

hTTp/www.indmin.com/Article/3379221/Iodine-prices-weaken-as-China-fails-to-lift-market.html

[superg1] 11/9/2014 15:19

Chile water rights

It sounds like the new government water unit has completed it's findings and submitted it for approval.

There are numerous reference to the pending changes, mainly in Spanish.

This translation is from 2 days ago which covers comments on industrial use. The Chile plan is to concentrate the importance of use on human consumption.


What about private companies and mining using enough water for their processes, how parameters will be made?

"As we have clear mining, and so they are also increasingly understood that a more permanent solution for medium and long term, sustainable and sustainable over time is desalination and why there are so many desalination plants are already in operation and there are no fewer than 10 projects or 15 large mining companies that are designing and desalination plants are projecting.

What we want is that mining in this way release water sources being used today or natural channels, especially the mountains. So what we want is that mining stop using those waters and start using increasingly desalinated water and for industrial processes, even some of them do not need desalinating they are doing. "