Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[naphar] 02/9/2014 19:59

SG - 15th May 2017, not 2015, case of fat fingers again I guess

[superg1] 02/9/2014 19:43

Naphar

Re those bonds. Like you I believe IOF can redeem the bonds but in every possible combination it would either end up as converted to shares, or the relevant company could ask to be paid.

There doesn't seem to be any scenario where IOF can demand to repay them.

With Panacea as you point out, over 80p for 5 trading days and IOF can call in the conversion to shares.

The Stena one says IOF can redeem it at any time with Stena choosing cash or conversion to shares.

So over 80p for 5 days the Panacea one can be force converted to shares by IOF. The Stena one IOF can call in at any time, but obviously Stena can choose either option.

On top of that when the bond was reworked, it was added in that Stena could convert to shares at anytime if they give 28 days notice. The conversion price being £1.

However others would have us believe we are all going to die because of the bond.

The date of maturity for both is 15th May 2015. That's over 2 years 8 months away.

If it's still under 80p or £1 by that time, that will mean something will have gone seriously wrong, and us guys won't be invested anyway to worry about it.

So "The end is nigh", over bonds, is just people talking from the wrong end of their anatomy.

[naphar] 02/9/2014 17:56

Marky,

I am not sure that IOF can elect to repay the bond and not issue shares. From the RNS:-
"The Company has the right to redeem the Bond without penalty at any time at which point the holders may elect to convert or receive repayment. If not converted or previously redeemed, the Bond will be redeemed at par at maturity, being 15 May 2017. The Bond also includes early redemption and /or exercise in the event that the Company is taken over by a third party"

It seems to me that Panacea Ltd always has the option to do the conversion, but IOF has the option to force converasion if the share price is over 80 p for 5 consecutive trading days:-
"The Company has the right to elect conversion of the Bond if the share price trades at 80 pence per Ordinary Share (being a one hundred per cent. premium above the conversion price) for five consecutive trading days. "
(the company is IOF as I read it)

[superg1] 02/9/2014 17:43

I missed the end of day action. I like to see the closing auction as it gives an idea of what is about.

235k in well beyond what has appeared historically.

I see someone added a short recently (based on the short chart), then that guy on iii appears with his report including false details, well I never...............

Let's hope IOF either had a decent month without too much disruption, or that they have hit a decent exit rate in August. They don't need 40mt and a 1.7mt exit rate to keep it going the right way imo, as either would keep us happy, both would be very nice though. It may all depend on io2, and that SWD upgrade to have gone smoothly.

Either way we don't have to wait too long.

If I take the appearance of 235k on the bid as a possible clue, then I suspect things should be going just fine.

Not forgetting that strong interest from multiple iodine end users for supply agreements.

[neddo] 02/9/2014 16:50

nice little end , up 2.75p, rns tomorrow ????

[meb123] 02/9/2014 16:45

If I had the dosh, I would :-)

[captain_kurt] 02/9/2014 16:38

235k is still there on the LSE bid, even 8 mins after hours, if anyone is interested in filling it ?
;')

[meb123] 02/9/2014 16:37

Good point Markey. They said they did not need the money in the first place so it would be good to know what they are planning to do with excess cash . Saving it for a rainy day?

[pwcarnall] 02/9/2014 16:23

Must have a better broker than me then-on dummy sell Im getting slightly below 61,still at least theyre willing to take them.

[1madmarky] 02/9/2014 16:22

What I'd be more interested in is do IOF pay AB back his money now and avoid the dilution, or delay and risk not having the option later on. If the production numbers are good the share price could rise quite quickly. I'd love to know what other options are on the table (supply contracts etc). I'm sure Lance would choose the path of least dilution, it'll just be nice to know what the heck is going on ;-)

[spike_1] 02/9/2014 16:18

PW - now a premium: 10K sold at mid: 51.25

[pwcarnall] 02/9/2014 16:13

Still not giving much of a premium for selling size though.

[spike_1] 02/9/2014 16:09

And now an MM looking for stock at 60.5 (235k still there at 60)

[captain_kurt] 02/9/2014 16:09

Seems IOF shares are in demand

[spike_1] 02/9/2014 16:05

L2 showing someone (name not shown - "LSE") looking to buy 235,584 @ 60p

Will be interesting to see how long that stays there.

[phoenixs] 02/9/2014 15:18

meb123, It has been the summer and quiet which is no bad thing. IOF have been going about their business and if they meet expectations then share price should rise. The return of confidence in management and delivery is what matters most. Anything more than that will be a real bonus at this time. If we see 40mt for August, that will equate to 480 mt pa. An end of August run rate of 1.7mtpd equates to about 50mtpm. That in itself will do for me.

[meb123] 02/9/2014 14:33

SP seems to be stuck at around the 60p mark. I am hoping for something a little bit more in the RNS rather than confirmation of the 1.7mt/day rate to give a boost coz i fear that is alrady priced in :-)

[jbe81] 02/9/2014 13:32

plenty of buying at ORM, only 1 mm left at current levels, moving up and should be a very good month. Only taken 2 years!

[superg1] 01/9/2014 20:37

Che

Yep

That's why I'm tracking a few which I think are recession proof like 'viagra' condoms.

Iodine saw a hit in 2009, but it was literally just a blip and normal service resumes on the demand rise.

Even the crazy prices didn't affect demand in the way they thought it would. It's such a widely used product there is no one end use event that can suddenly see demand plummet. Any replacement products in technology take years to break through so you get plenty of warning.

Personally, and probably contrary to the rest of the market, I think lithium is one to steer clear of as a long term bet. There will be short term money to be made, but to me it will be a gold chasing scenario, and only those with the lowest opex type recovery will survive. There is a lot of lithium about. The producer market will eventually catch up and the price will drop.

The graphite days will come, I forget the name of the highest quality graphite, but that will be the sector to target. There are a lot of moth-balled graphite mines about.

What I do know about iodine is that scientists are finding dozens of new uses for it, and new ideas appear all the time. In relation to Hypervalent iodine they now have yearly international conferences about it. ?? This year's event was in Japan.

[che7win] 01/9/2014 15:09

Boggle,
Agreed, that fractional lending should have been allowed to unwind more; at least the USA allowed house prices to fall to sustainable levels whereas our government likes to engineer credit booms ahead of general elections and keep property supported.

We are living beyond our means and without a world reserve currency like the US.
The markets are giving the UK the benefit of the doubt that they can pay back their debts. The UK government needs low interest rates to fund it's enormous debt, but if the markets begin to doubt the UK can pay back it's debts, there will be a run on the pound, inflation will soar, interest rates will rocket.

I'm happy to be invested mostly overseas, this being one reason.

[bogg1e] 01/9/2014 14:26

Cheers Robo.

[roboben] 01/9/2014 14:23

Boggle. I'm with you on QFi and IOF, but I think it may be worth thinking again on MONI.

Being an investor in IOF you can appreciate the value of the contracts that they've worked so hard on.

With MONI the context is different but I think that you'll find that the "moat" that you're looking for lies in the relationships with Visa and MasterCard, IBM and soon (possibly) to be announced Apple.

If that emerges with the announcement of the new iPhone then MONI will be a secure one-way bet IMO.

[che7win] 01/9/2014 13:51

The good thing for us bulls is the AIM chart isn't any higher than where it was three years ago.

In fact, on a one year level, it is below last year. Not what you would call a bubble scenario.


The iodine market has crashed and bottomed.

The UK is in a mess, public sector borrowing is hitting new records, there has been no austerity, few bankruptcies and artificially low interest rates.

I prefer to stay overseas in my investing as much as possible, because the UK is living well beyond its means, see article below.

IOF fits the bill in that respect: