Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 09/9/2014 12:21

Slickwater Fracking (fingers crossed for the permit)

Note the report link from Halcon below.

Various oil companies are reporting record wells by using slick fracking. It's basically a lot more water and less chemicals.

When I say a lot more water the average standard frack is around 50,000 barrels per well. Slickwater can involve 150,000 to 250,000 barrels and more.

This theme has only taken off in the last few months, and judging by the results looks like it is set to stay. There is rapid expansion going on re it's use in the Bakken. EG a big player Oasis tried it, and is now doing 60% of the rest of it's wells by that method.

The end result is the amount of water needed is clearly going to go well beyond what is currently available if this becomes a preferred method. On the evidence so far it looks like they are highly enthusiastic about the results.

Putting it in perspective. Bob Shaver the ex North Dakota water guru forecast 3 billion gallons would be used in 2013, 5 billion was the actual.

If those had all been slickwater methods it would have been 15 billion to 25 billion gallons. 5 to 8 times what Bob forecast.

It's not just about the change of method either, as such results encourage further exploration, and reworking current to significantly up the output of wells.

That Atlantis water resource and discharge permit, under the circs, are highly valuable imo. I can see the price of water going up as the big players fight for supplies.



Sept 3rd

Halcon sets company IP record with slickwater frack.

CEO comment

“Up in the Williston Basin we’re literally knocking the ball out of the park,”

'recently set a company initial production, IP, record of 4,381 barrels of oil equivalent per day. An adjacent middle Bakken well on a spacing of approximately 660 feet came in with an IP of 3,551 boepd.'

'In comparison, two earlier middle Bakken wells on the same spacing unit that were gel fractured had IPs of 2,675 and 2,174 boepd. Halcon saw similar improvements in wells on its neighboring Blanca North pad.'

'With the transition to slickwater completions, the most current estimated ultimate recovery, EUR, for the company’s FBIR wells is now out of date.'

[superg1] 09/9/2014 09:32

No idea Bogg1e. That may be pointless as if their is a local power outage then the operators would need generators at every well, SWD and any brine pumps.


I was just talking specifically about io5. Every other plant had power routed to it. At the AGM I believe they said it costs about $250k for each plant to have power directed to the location.

If it was costing $150k per month as suggested then that was $1.8 mill per year alone.

At 100mt and $20 costs that wipes out the 100mt iodine profit on it's own, But then a 100mt rate would be $20 costs, probably around $25. So near 140 mt wiped out on prices of $38 per kg.

That's before all the other costs, it's just the generator.

That's obviously why they shut io5 down until power could be put it, it would have been losing money at a decent rate.

[neddo] 09/9/2014 09:19

still have to pay for the electric?

[bogg1e] 09/9/2014 09:04

SG, I thought each plant was to have its own backup generator anyway?

[superg1] 09/9/2014 08:56

It's that old line I have banged on about for a long time.

It's not the number of plants it's bpd x ppm and that is what creates the low cost.

I think that was the basic problem, they pushed forward determined to add plants at any cost rather than be selective.

Subsequent plant/pod sites will prove that point I suspect. Pods do give some flexibility though.

Loading up on dead wood office staff was a bit of a stupid move, I understand the level of efficiency measures has reduced those quite significantly.

Take the $150k per month generator at io5 ???. It's $250k to get electric tied in, they had plenty of time. Someone didn't do the maths. Some very basic schoolboy errors went on. I won't mention the 200mt gaff, oh, I have.

[gadolinium] 09/9/2014 08:51

Surely, Thomas Becker is an chemist like myself. I can assure you we chemists are all very reliable chaps.

-----------------------------
Dr. Thomas M. Becker, President of Iofina Chemical, Inc.

Dr. Becker was the former vice president of Research and Development at H&S/Iofina Chemical. Iofina bought H&S in July 2009. Dr. Becker has conducted extensive research in both inorganic and organic halogen based chemistry. Dr. Becker has written a magnitude of published technical papers in his career. Prior to H&S Dr. Becker worked as a Oak Ridge Scholar on behalf of the US EPA and for various other chemical manufacturing companies. Dr. Becker earned a BS in Chemistry from Indiana University, and a PhD in Chemistry from the University of Cincinnati. He has extensive experience in scale-up of chemical processes from laboratory to pilot to full scale production and is the inventor on several chemical patents/patent applications.

[phoenixs] 09/9/2014 07:16

great post spike.

[monts12] 08/9/2014 23:05

And hedging the short on French bonds with going long on German bonds would not have eased the pain MB. Agree with your assessment re yields though, something's got to give, problem is when?

[mister big] 08/9/2014 22:24

Mind you Chris Fay was fabulously qualified engineer !
On the currency pair I was heavily short euro and dollars , on bonds short french bonds and long us bonds , the position of french bonds yielding less than us treasuries bond is madness of the highest order !taking a bath on french bonds but will see it through !!

[elbillo] 08/9/2014 22:17

I admire your research on Iofina but Toyota that's another matter


9th April 2014

TOYOTA ANNOUNCES VEHICLE RECALLS

• Toyota announces safety recalls covering three issues affecting some RAV4, Hilux, Yaris and Urban Cruiser models
• A total of 35,124 UK-registered vehicles are affected
• No reports worldwide of any accidents, injuries or fatalities linked to these issues
• Toyota to provide customers with prompt inspection and repair programme, at no charge

Toyota has announced recalls today for three separate issues affecting some RAV4, Hilux, Yaris and Urban Cruiser models.

The recalls affect a total 35,124 UK-registered cars. Worldwide, there have been no reports of any accidents or injuries relating to these issues. Toyota is conducting the recalls according to DVSA (Driver and Vehicle Standards Agency, previously known as VOSA, Vehicle Operating Standards Authority) code of practice.

Spiral cable assembly – RAV4 and Hilux

Toyota has identified a possible issue affecting the spiral cable assembly in the airbag module fitted to some RAV4 and Hilux models. Due to the shape and location of a retainer for the Flexible Flat Cable in the airbag unit, there may be a risk when the steering wheel is turned of damage to certain circuits that provide connectivity to the airbag.

If connectivity is lost, the airbag warning light will illuminate on the instrument panel and the driver’s airbag may be deactivated.

The vehicles subject to this recall are RAV4 and Hilux models manufactured within the period June 2004 and December 2010. In total this covers some 24,785 UK-registered models, the number split broadly equally between the two models.

All the vehicles affected by this issue are being recalled so that an improved spiral cable can be fitted.

The installation will take about one hour to complete; the work will be carried out free of charge.

(N.B. This recall also includes some Land Cruiser models, but none of the vehicles are registered in the UK.)

Seat rail spring – Yaris and Urban Cruiser

Toyota has found that the spring in the mechanism that locks the driver and (in three-door cars) front passenger seats in position on the seat adjustment rail may be under-strength and could break, should the seats be frequently moved back and forward.

Should the spring break, the seat may not lock into its adjusted position, and could move in the event of a crash.

The vehicles affected were built between January 2005 and August 2010. In total this covers 10,339 UK-registered cars.

All the vehicles affected by this issue are being recalled for inspection of the springs and, where required, replacement with new ones. The job will take between 40 and 90 minutes per seat, depending the model and work required; the work will be carried out free of charge.

Steering column bracket – Yaris and Urban Cruiser

Toyota is aware that the weld which connects the steering column bracket to the instrument panel on some Yaris and Urban Cruiser models might break when the steering wheel is repeatedly turned with full force.

The driver may hear an abnormal noise from the bracket area and if the vehicle continues to be driven, it is possible that the bracket will fail, causing the steering column to tilt out of position. However, the driver will not lose steering control.

The vehicles subject to this recall are second generation Yaris with tilt/telescopic steering wheel adjustment and Urban Cruiser models built within the period September 2005 to February 2009. In total this covers 1,293 UK-registered models. (N.B. these are a sub set of the 10,339 being recalled for the seat spring issued described above.)

All the vehicles affected by this issue are being recalled so that the bracket can be inspected. If no damage is found, an extra bracket will be fitted to avoid any problems occurring in future. If there is evidence of damage, a replacement instrument panel reinforcement will be fitted.

According to the action required, the job will take between two-and-a-half to four-and-a-half hours to complete; the work will be carried out free of charge.

Customer information
Vehicle owners will be contacted by Toyota within the coming weeks by post or telephone and asked to make an appointment to bring their car to their nearest Toyota Centre, in accordance with DVSA guidelines.

If owners require additional information they can contact Toyota Recall Helpline on 0800 1388744.



Toyota Genuine Accessory Bedliner Recall

If you have recently been contacted regarding the Toyota Genuine accessory Bedliner recall please contact your local Toyota Centre to arrange a convenient time for inspection, or if your vehicle isn't fitted with a Genuine Toyota accessory Bedliner please click here to exclude your vehicle from this recall.

Toyota Genuine Accessory Tow Bar Recall

If you have recently been contacted regarding the Toyota Genuine accessory Tow Bar recall please contact your local Toyota Centre to arrange a convenient time for inspection, or if your vehicle isn't fitted with a Genuine Toyota accessory Tow Bar please click here to exclude your vehicle from this recall.

Other Safety Recall Campaigns

Please use the VIN look up system above to see if your vehicle is affected.

[superg1] 08/9/2014 21:46

LB wanted a CEO that would come in and simply follow the business plan, that's why they went with GL. However I think others since gone, decided to meddle with the lyrics, and it all went completely out of tune.

Generally a new guy wants to make changes I've seen it dozens of times, and the change is rarely ever needed and often is a disaster. I think it's Toyota that have the 'if it isn't broken, don't fix it attitude' and they ended up with the most reliable cars.

So on that front, a proven expert in the iodine business, is perfect.

[rogerbridge] 08/9/2014 19:57

Qualifications do not impress me SG. I have known too many people who have excellent looking qualifications but who are completely useless.
Against my advice a former company employed a sales engineer from a leading competitor. Having met this guy here and there and listening to other contacts I was not impressed. We were a smaller company with dynamic growth at that point in time and the need was for a self starter who would make a difference. This guy was used to all the bells and whistles, support, secretarial back up in making travel arrangements and appointments.he just could not change to the ways of a small company.
You can not beat experience and expertise in a specialist area, why look for a highly paid CEO from outside of the company, unless there is someone outstanding.
Now I have said that, he bloody we'll needs to deliver.
I see your point about GL.

[superg1] 08/9/2014 19:40

Roger

Does this fit the bill for a CEO.

'Sales Engineer at IBM Corporation; and Design Engineer with Texaco, Inc'

'has a Bachelor of Science in Civil Engineering and a Master of Science in Industrial Management'

His name is George Lantz.

[monty panesar] 08/9/2014 19:26

Back myself from hols and agree on Dr B. on production all that matters is they are still on for doing 400t this year. What interests me more though is what they expect to produce next year as it is that figure which will go into any dcf valuation for the 15 year life of the plants. Of particular interest is the output from io2 after last months changes.

[superg1] 08/9/2014 19:19

Micknick

I haven't the slightest clue what the next new is re production.

In recent days some posters have with decent logic, concluded the CEO news most likely precedes a good update.

Then the topping up started. 'Mr market' does read blogs, and could have been hand rubbing and getting rid of stock at higher prices. We all know PIs buy if a price rises, that in turn, in their minds, confirms the good news so more buying comes in in fear of missing out.

Then post news it is 40 mt plus and the price had risen well prior, the traders sell on the news.

Having double-checked the last rns, 2 plants have upgrades beyond the control of IOF. Io6 had only been running a few days.

Maybe IOF were predicting 40mt, not including those potential delays as they have hit 40mt before without io5 and 6.

Some over-gear themselves, then throw their teddies when the gamble doesn't work. Hence for a bit of balance, just in case, I mentioned the points of the rns.

I can pick out all the positives too. IO2 substantial increase expected post new SWD system. Booster pump io4 taking it to 30k bpd, good rates of high quality brine expected at io6 etc etc.

Talks with multiple iodine end users for supply contracts (strong interest).

I was about the only one on ADVFN negative about GDL some time back. I remain very positive about IOF, but fully appreciate some are far less patient than others.

Yes that are other shares around that look like they may multiply short term, but the risk reward ratio is not good. A 5 bag on a £500 punt is just 5% of a £50k investment, or in IOF's case a 3p move up.

[rogerbridge] 08/9/2014 18:23

Just returned refreshed from hols.
I am very pleased with the appointment of Dr. Becker as CEO. He is an expert in the iodine market both in production and derivatives.
He is doing a very good job at present.
I would rather have an engineer of some description at the top, I have been involved with companies in Germany and Scandinavia and the successful ones tend to have engineers at the top.
Easier to get your head around figures than chemicals.

I am not sure what to expect for August production but has been said the exit rate is what I will be interested in.

[angel of the north] 08/9/2014 18:09

Don't know why the 'Thomas's' have suddenly appeared regarding production update. Mondays have never been favourite with IOF for these updates as it's usually a Thursday. Even so it's not a month yet since the last one? It will be this Thursday the 14th or next the 18th in my view.
No reason for any panic Mr Mannering!

[warmsun] 08/9/2014 17:26

To be honest, I wasn't at all jittery until a few posts started to appear which could be read as 'warnings' and not to expect great things near-term. Anyway, it doesn't affect my holdings either way....am here for the long haul :)

[roboben] 08/9/2014 17:15

Not quite sure why people are getting jittery.

Our new CEO has been around for a long time. His appointment could easily have been delayed if the next set of figures were going to be that bad, to ensure that the first set of figures announced under his leadership would be very good. I can't see his appointment being announced last week if his first public task is to announce a poor set of figures. (But I could be wrong, of course!)

After all, everyone seems to think that the September figures are likely to be good, don't they?

If the figures don't appear this week does that mean that they're bad? Or could it be that the H1 figures, due out later this month, are not that great (Something that we all know to be true) and that they need a good set of figures for the last month to be announced at the same time to prevent the H1 figures knocking the SP?

Just a thought!

[tim3416] 08/9/2014 17:10

You'll need to narrow it down a bit Neddo! Lol

[neddo] 08/9/2014 17:03

anything that moves the share price in the wrong direction,

[tim3416] 08/9/2014 16:13

What would you consider a poor update micknickbanny?

[spike_1] 08/9/2014 16:06

Production for August: there are reasons to expect some instability last month due to a number of issues being addressed, the timetable for which is uncertain.

What is important is the daily rate of production at month's end, as that is an indicator of future months. If it is around 1.7 mt per day, then the 'future' will have arrived. If less, then issues still being addressed.

Personally I'm not losing any sleep, and for me IOF is a big investment.

Best wishes - Mike

[micknickbanny] 08/9/2014 15:36

From reading the above I get the impression that the feeling re the forthcoming production update from iofina is that it's going to be poor... yet again,