Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[bogg1e] 29/8/2014 12:10

Brucie, Ive put together a doc for Iofina (like the quadrise doc), 30 pages of juicy info, which im about to send out to everyone and like the QFI doc should have pretty much every known angle covered. It answers all of your questions in one document. I have your email so you should get it today.

My personal view, is that Iofina is a brilliant LONG TERM bet. I have and always will advocate holding companies like Iofina, who are in the early developmental stage, for 5 years or until they are bought out. They are only two years into fledgling production, so upsets are bound to happen.

As for cash, no problems there, they had cash of about $7-8 mil in march and have been making a profit each month since. I assume their cash is now around $10-12 mil. Iofina are still in the jam tomorrow phase, because of various disruptions and setbacks which we are all familiar with, but they are only able to hinder the development of the company, not derail it. I bought last year at approx £2 per share. My target is £70 if we don't get bought out and Im giving the BoD until 2018 to achieve it.

[brucie5] 29/8/2014 11:31

Edited. Having re-read through your posts, SG, mine was a very ignorant one.

One question though: what is the all in cost for IOF of 1mt compared with rivals? (Or however the cost of production is measured..)

[gadolinium] 29/8/2014 09:54

I can't see that the sulfur dioxide emission laws will affect iodine producers. The whole point of their operation is to burn sulfur and capture the sulfur dioxide for use in reducing iodates. They will not be letting it vent into the atmosphere as this would be a waste of valuable material.

These laws will be directed at power stations and other facilities where sulfur dioxide and other pollutants are emitted to the atmosphere through smoke stacks.

[chumbo] 29/8/2014 09:50

Hi Mr Big. I don't know if you've just been up the North West passage? I did it years ago - humpback whales, orcas, helicopter rides onto glaciers, salmon fishing. Beautiful part of the world. Sorry, nothing to do with iodine.....

[che7win] 29/8/2014 08:25

superg,
this one is new to me: Minimum wage up 25%.

I wonder how many workers for the iodine companies are on minimum wage?

[superg1] 29/8/2014 07:34

Mad

The analysts still haven't spotted the closed mine and plant, as they would know why they let custom go as their opex for those was too high.

A shame really that Ben wasn't there, and had a stand in, he seems particularly good at smelling BS, that said I don't think he knows about the situation either.

[madchick] 29/8/2014 07:28

So, nobody asked at the conference call about the impact of water and taxation? They were lucky.

[mister big] 29/8/2014 06:19

Ramped it up !
You mean hoovered up all loose stock at below 50p!
:)
Have a good cruise roger - I'm on way back from Alaska to Seattle . Splendid trip !!!

[festario] 29/8/2014 01:32

I think I dodged a bullet by choosing to not invest in STM, when Mr Big ramped it to high-heaven about 10 days ago.

[hurricane.] 28/8/2014 22:03

Only expanding iodine business that is near their customers is Iofina!

Will SQM let the Japanese agree long term supply agreements with Iofina?

Watch this space

[superg1] 28/8/2014 21:16

No takers?

"second the service having the stocks near our customers and also the quantities on time when they need it"

"having our stocks near our customers"..... interesting.

The whole general message is very intriguing compared to previous reports.

The near term plan seems to be to sort their already loyal base, and let customers come to them, when others potentially let them down.

That has been evident in Cosayach circs over the last 4 years, and Sirocco.

That 'stocks near customers' makes one wonder what they are up too.

[superg1] 28/8/2014 18:59

Brucie

The vast majority use filter so could you resist copying and posting such things.

However on this occasion I see your point.

So if someone is looking like becoming the lead low cost producer, in a country that imports 20% of the total market, worth $250 mill p.a., then ignore them.

Ignore the fact that the Japanese are seeing their own resource decline, and think Chile is the last place left for commercial production. A country that has seen significant cost rises, and it's getting worse.

Don't worry about the other potential assets that seem to be well placed in other hot sectors.

I doubt anything on the AIM or any other share can be considered a 'sound investment'. There are enough films and books about such unforeseen entire annihilations of some companies .

I do believe the poster was trying to convince many that BEM was a sound investment, and declared a large holding some time back.

It's been a near 25 sagger from it's peak in just 3 1/2 years 71p to just under 3p.

So no, IOF is not a 'sound investment', but it looks to be one of the most promising on the AIM.

[dcgray21] 28/8/2014 16:35

Roger I keep thinking that the next 2-3 months providing 40-50mT production , along with approval of water rights and publication of strategic review with mobile plan and possible japan supplier agreement would get us to £1 pre Xmas ...that would allow turkey on the family table for the festive period :)

[rogerbridge] 28/8/2014 16:25

Looking forward to the next few weeks. Off on a cruise tomorrow. I hope we are at £1 by the time I return.

[superg1] 28/8/2014 14:02

SQM production

I have all the figures for past few years.

In short back in 2010, without El Toco and the Iris plant SQM
did
8000mt.

With the introduction of El Toco and Iris in 2012 and 2013 SM
did
2,900mt and 2,800mt more in production.

Iris is located at Neuve Victoria, production there went up
1000mt.

The El Toco best rate was 1700mt. You can see the 2 figures add
up
roughly to the 2800/2900 increase.

El Toco closed in October 2013, by which time it had got to
1474
mt.

Iris closed in December.

Sales 2013 v production meant a 1500mt inventory.

HOWEVER

Sales this year so far (4,500mt) looks around 300 to 500mt more
than they produced. In other words they are lowering their
inventory and look like they can only be on production of just
over
8000mt.


So all on track imo for a H1 2015 shortage. If Cos have been
hit
(they should have been) and Bullmine have stopped, we could end
with a 2011 type situation once more.

It looks to me like SQM's plan is to let a shortage happen to get
the price up.

[neddo] 28/8/2014 11:19

a.c.t. again?

[superg1] 28/8/2014 10:32

From an old post. This shows what SQM actually produced in 2013

Pedro De Valdivia 3200 Mt

Maria Elena 1400 Mt

Neuve Victoria 6100 Mt.

Total 10,700 Mt.

Maria Elena (El Toco) closed late last year which explains the
1400
v it's normal 1700. It should be zero this year.

The Iris plant is at Neuve and closed. I recall it's highest
rate
was 700mt historically.

Neuve and Pedro make 9300 Mt but then we have to subtract the
Iris
plant which should take it well under 9000mt.

Compare that to sales H1 and in theory they sold more than they
produced. So that should have bitten into any left over 2013
inventory.

I will check the full figures later, it's not fun trying to do
it
on a phone.

[sandbag] 28/8/2014 10:03

Remember Lance's comments?

"The Librarian - 10 Mar 2013 - 10:32:38 - 17338 of 26284
Interesting that Lance mentioned, Toyota, Mitsubishi and Sumimoto
as the threats, of course they have deep pockets and use a lot of
Iodine in their chemical processes.

Also interesting that he mentions China as a white knight,"

[che7win] 28/8/2014 09:42

Superg,
I agree with you, SQM has high fixed costs and they have cut their
expenditures this year to become more lean.

However, it is only possible for them to keep producing from the
same mines for so long - at some stage they will need to switch to
their other higher cost mines and we know input cost pressures that
you have posted about.

On the acquisition front, I have been thinking the same thing.
SQM could look to buy a lower cost producer and if I were them, I
would be looking to keep my 30% position by:

1: Insuring I remain the lowest cost producer in the sector
2: Insuring I reinvest in the best and lowest opex technology.

If I were SQM and I thought for one moment that another producer
whom I'm competing with could take over another company and become
lowest cost producer, I would be looking to do it first, it's too
big a threat down the line to me.

I expect we have many suitors lining up, especially when we show
our opex in the teens, for now we are vulnerable but I sincerely
hope we can stay independent for another 12 months minimum and
escape the clutches of others.